Tropical Wave In Eastern Caribbean

[bvigal]

I may have to buy a load of water for the cistern...

[boca]

This wave as it moves WNW will run into 40 knot shear between the Leewards and PR which will rip the top off it by tomorrow.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I see that. So, does that mean the WAVE will be gone, that it will have no convection at all?

Its like whipped cream on top of ice cream and you have a giant fan blowing on the whipped cream, the top will blow off.

[wyq614]

Well, it depends. Personally I think if this wave does suffer high shear, we have to take the direction of the shear into consideration. The position of rain showers depends on where will the convection be sheared to. I'm not sure if the convection will be sheared to BVI...

I'm going to have my hair cut and then have lunch. I hope I can see 92L on the FNMOC when I'm back to my dorm...

[gatorcane]

This wave as it moves WNW will run into 40 knot shear between the Leewards and PR which will rip the top off it by tomorrow.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

I see that. So, does that mean the WAVE will be gone, that it will have no convection at all?

Its like whipped cream on top of ice cream and you have a giant fan blowing on the whipped cream, the top will blow off.

well then right now we have the whip cream on the icecream and a very weak fan.....maybe that fan will blow harder later tonight and into tomorrow.

I'm awaiting to see if this deep energy decides to start manifesting at the surface in the form of higher winds and lower pressure.

Right now those shear maps may be overstating the shear around this blob....

Also the blob seems to be resuming more of a WNW movement instead of NW.....maybe some outflow boundaries going on or something.

[wyq614]

Hope this wave and get designated on the NRL in the next 6 hours before move into moderate to high shear area... Me voy.

[boca]

If you start seeing outflow boundaries that means that the thunderstorm complex will collapse within a few hours, give or take a few. If you don't, like gatorcane said the lower pressure will manifest itself to the surface.

[boca]

I wish we had a floater on this wave.

[jaxfladude]

edited due to mis-reading on my part....

[gatorcane]

If you start seeing outflow boundaries that means that the thunderstorm complex will collapse within a few hours, give or take a few. If you don't, like gatorcane said the lower pressure will manifest itself to the surface.

Well I'm going to say it will collapse overnight because its hard to believe a low can spin up this quickly especially in an environment that is not ideal. Time will tell...

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Always nice on sat pic

[bvigal]

I wish we had a floater on this wave.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2 and zoom.

Here's a dvorak loop - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-bd.html

Thanks, Boca. Just got the 0z NAM, and it's backed off a lot on forecast precip! windguru bvi

[cycloneye]

I am waiting for an updated discussion from the San Juan NWS that will come very soon to see if there is anything new from what they said in the afternoon discussion.

[boca]

Thanks bvigal its collasping as I'm writing this, and gatorcane this might be gone by the morning. I mean the convection not the wave. I'd love to see what this does once it gets pasted Jamaica in the Western Caribbean.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[gatorcane]

Definitely a large BLOB as given by a short-wave IR shot

[gatorcane]

what's interesting to note is that there are two ULLs north of the blob creating shear. One is fizzling just East of NE Florida, the other one is about 500 miles north of the blob moving ENE.

[HURAKAN]

[abajan]

It's stopped raining completely and I'm going to bed. Good night all.

[cycloneye]

Updated AFD of San Juan.


000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130322
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1122 PM AST THU JUN 12 2008

.UPDATE...BARBADOS HAS HAD NEARLY CONTINUOUS RAIN SINCE 00Z AS THE
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE
BECOME NEARLY CALM THERE HOWEVER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER SAN
JUAN HAS ROCKETED FROM A MINIMUM OF 1.3 INCHES JUST 5 HOURS AGO TO
ABOUT 1.8 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE SOUNDER AND...ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY...THIS RISE MAY REPRESENT THE PASSAGE OF
THE AXIS OF THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE FOR US. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY HAVE INVADED THE EASTERN SIXTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND ARE PEPPERED ACROSS THE WATERS AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOUTH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE
WAVE NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AROUND 23 KNOTS...BUT LOOKS TO BE
DISSIPATING AS THE SECOND WAVE OVERTAKES IT. SHOWERS SHOULD
INCREASE OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND THE
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVE THROUGH. FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE IMMEDIATE GRIDS...BUT HAVE NOTICED THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WE WILL WANT TO WATCH THIS
TREND. ALSO BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE CLEARING OUT THE MOISTURE
FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTER 12Z AND
HAVE ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS DRYER TREND. STILL EXPECT
FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTION SATURDAY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
PUERTO RICO BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO SEE FEWER
SHOWERS AS A RESULT AND SAINT CROIX MAY SEE THE SHOWERS END
ALTOGETHER FOR A WHILE.

[bvigal]

Good night Bajan!


Divergence map shows the blob.

[boca]

The 00NAM has this vigoruos wave over the Central Bahamas by 84hrs.Here's the loop.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml