Huge African Wave To Enter Atlantic on July 1-2

[Frank2]

By everyone's posts, there are many strong feelings when it comes to the use of model data, but, it's like anything else - is it being used as it was meant to be used...

Oh, well...

[Ed Mahmoud]

If this forms into a tropical storm,it would be the most east cyclone formation on record.

I vaguely recall watching TWC in 1996 during the 4th of July weekend, and thinking Bertha looked like a TD as it came off the coast.

I don't think NHC would be in any big hurry to classify a depression a week away from land, so even if a system does form, it may not be furthest East by the time it is officially upgraded to a depression.

[Derek Ortt]

in the best track the tracks are often extended farther to the east

[cycloneye]

Discussion from HPC:

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEAST ACROSS
CUBA-SOUTHERN FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS THROUGH 72 HRS WHILE DRIFTING EAST. OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A NARROW/ ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST
ALONG 17N FROM WESTERN AFRICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES. A
THIRD RIDGE LIES FARTHER NORTH ALONG 40N...CENTERING ON A
MEANDERING HIGH NEAR 40N 50W. AT 850 HPA THE RIDGE LIES ALONG
35N/37N. BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 14N THESE RIDGES FAVOR A DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW...WHILE NORTH OF 14N MID/UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS DOMINATE THE FLOW...PARTICULARLY EAST OF 65W.
FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FAVORED
FORMATION OF A LOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS FAVORS
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG 10N TO AROUND 40W/45W. SYNOPTIC
MODELS THEN SUGGEST POSSIBILITY/RISK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AS TROPICAL WAVES INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z Euro has a tropical depression or storm next Saturday from this wave.

The Euro then weakens it some, curves it North, but shows a bend back more to the West between 216 and 240 hours. Although, if correct, it would be safely North of the Caribbean.

FWIW.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If this forms into a tropical storm,it would be the most east cyclone formation on record.

I vaguely recall watching TWC in 1996 during the 4th of July weekend, and thinking Bertha looked like a TD as it came off the coast.

I don't think NHC would be in any big hurry to classify a depression a week away from land, so even if a system does form, it may not be furthest East by the time it is officially upgraded to a depression.

Wow..Looks like maybe 2 landfalls in FL in history in July? Would think more would have clipped FL..

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this forms into a tropical storm,it would be the most east cyclone formation on record.

I vaguely recall watching TWC in 1996 during the 4th of July weekend, and thinking Bertha looked like a TD as it came off the coast.

I don't think NHC would be in any big hurry to classify a depression a week away from land, so even if a system does form, it may not be furthest East by the time it is officially upgraded to a depression.

Wow..Looks like maybe 2 landfalls in FL in history in July? Would think more would have clipped FL..

This graphic only includes storms that formed during the July 1-15 period. It does not include storms that formed in late June or storms that formed after July 15th.

[wxman57]

For July storms that hit Florida, go to the Coastal Services Center track plotter and click on "Place Name" in the left frame. Choose Florida and then only July in the months field.

[DESTRUCTION5]

For July storms that hit Florida, go to the Coastal Services Center track plotter and click on "Place Name" in the left frame. Choose Florida and then only July in the months field.

Well that shows alot more action..Must be the 2nd half of July that brought the strikes up for FL..

[cycloneye]

Will this wave/Low take a similar track and develop like the 1996 Bertha did turning into the 2008 Bertha?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi has "The Birth of Bertha" and a link to below image on PPV page.

[gatorcane]

Will this wave/Low take a similar track and develop like the 1996 Bertha did turning into the 2008 Bertha?

Cycloneye, South Floridians, residents of the Caribbean islands, and the Eastern CONUS definitely don't want to see another "Bertha-like" situation for early July. Even though Bertha did not hit South Florida directly, it just takes a slight change in the synoptic setup for it to have hit Southern Florida. We are hoping its all hype at this point.

[Jason_B]

I don't know, waves up ahead of this one have been getting torn apart by strong upper level winds. It only being late June I can't see anything developing east of the islands, I'll believe it when I see it.

[KWT]

Also Bertha has to be up there with some of the strongest first half of July hurricanes given it did make it to major status?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Also Bertha has to be up there with some of the strongest first half of July hurricanes given it did make it to major status?

100 knots.

Preliminary Report
Hurricane Bertha
05-14 July 1996
Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
9 November 1996



Bertha was an early-season Cape Verde Hurricane that moved across the islands of the northeastern Caribbean Sea as a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson scale and made landfall on the North Carolina coast near Wilmington as a category 2 hurricane. Bertha's one-minute winds reached their maximum value of 100 knots on 9 July, while located to the north of Puerto Rico. The last Hurricane to reach this strength, this early in the season, was Alma in 1966 in the eastern Gulf of Mexico with 110 knots. Bertha is responsible for an estimated eight deaths and $250 million in U.S. damages.

[Vortex]

This is a very bold statement but I've been analyzing all data, modeling, and the forecasted synoptic environment during the next 3-7 days across the central/east atlantic and I'm growing increasingly confident that a 50-65 mph cyclone seems VERY reasonable near or within 250 miles of the leeward islands sunday evening. I'll post my reasoning/sources later but this appears to be the real deal...

[canegrl04]

Come on Bertha Be baby Bertha,not big Bertha

[dwg71]

we will see if anything develops this far east. Its too early, IMO. I just dont see it happening, much ado about nottin'

[RL3AO]

The shear is low and the water is warm. Only thing that goes against it is climatology.

[Vortex]

18Z GFS rolling in

H+48 well defined low pressure off the African coast and SSE of the Cape Verde Islands.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif