Possible Development in C Atlantic Wave (Is invest 92L)

[Weatherfreak000]

A very interesting system! At a low latitude too could help it as the Eastern Caribbean is surprisingly healthy shear wise. The problem area is 30-40W with fairly strong and only increasing 20kt shear. I'm confident if it can continue firing convection and make it past 40W we could see development before it makes it to the Caribbean.

[coreyl]

06/2345 UTC 11.5N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest soon, stay tuned!

How do you know this is going to be an invest soon?

[HURAKAN]

Says "Invest"!!!

[coreyl]

Says "Invest"!!!

I see that, but where did that information come from?

[cycloneye]

Says "Invest"!!!

I see that, but where did that information come from?

Here is the link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[RL3AO]

Says "Invest"!!!

I wouldn't take much from it. The SSD does that all the time for multiple reasons.

[coreyl]

Says "Invest"!!!

I see that, but where did that information come from?

Here is the link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Thanks.

[GeneratorPower]

00z GFS is out now and showing nothing from this wave or any others through 108 hours. It this forms, it will have squeaked past the detection of the GFS. Not impossible, but the GFS has really done well this year especially at less than 5 days. I'm pro-development but I don't see model support.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Scorpion]

I don't believe Felix had much model support either.

[Normandy]

Interestingly, I like this one's chances for development....just not now. For one thing, it still seems to be attached to the ITCZ, and it has not real surface low. That being said, it has consistently (and is still is) produced convection since leaving the coast, and for that suggests that the wave is quite vigorous. Now the fun part, where does it go?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

I point you to this steering map for low level steering currents. This isn't a deep system, so it won't recurve so early like others. Notice the SW steering currents near the Cape Verde, and then watch this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Notice the brief SW dive of the wave and now the current Westward motion. I would be it loses a little more lattidute and ends up below 12N, which is prime position for non-recurving storms (IE storms that effect the islands). Notice the lower level steering is straight W into the Caribbean. Since I don't expect this to develop so soon, I would expect a low tracker if it does develop at all.

[cycloneye]

Hanging on:

[cycloneye]

There is a low in the 06z analysis:

[KWT]

Its an interesting system given how far south it is presently, also the fact there is a low nearby diving SW may just be what the ITCZ bursting needs to do something if the convection doesn't race away. If it does race away then the convection would have to try and develop its own circulation as it tries to pull away from the ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

AXNT20 KNHC 071042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N20W
MOVING SW AT 15 KT. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS BASED ON SURFACE AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

[Mecklenburg]

AXNT20 KNHC 071042
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N20W
MOVING SW AT 15 KT. PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS BASED ON SURFACE AND
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

i won't expect much from this...

[HURAKAN]

[alan1961]

Poof the magic dragon lives near the CV islands. Since Bertha formed all the disturbances coming off Africa, despite looking like they would spin have poofed. With the recent demise of convection, looks like this one is on the poof train.....MGC

[HURAKAN]

[alan1961]

Poof the magic dragon lives near the CV islands. Since Bertha formed all the disturbances coming off Africa, despite looking like they would spin have poofed. With the recent demise of convection, looks like this one is on the poof train.....MGC

[img][/img]

[Mecklenburg]

06/2345 UTC 11.5N 22.6W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic Ocean

Invest soon, stay tuned!

not yet an invest...