Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, if this pulls to becoming something and the ridge sets up like above, than thats gonna suck. Me and my paps are heading to Europe this Sunday and I know if anything starts even making a hint of entering the GOM, my mother will be flipping out. And funny thing is, 2008 has been a active year and I'm heading to Europe and I went to Europe in 2005 and look what happened. Maybe I should never travel to Europe ever again.

Good news, is a long and thoughtful post, Joe Bastardi today said he suspects the majority of the rest of the season is Florida and points North, not Florida and points West.

Nothing against people in North Carolina or Martha's Vienyard. But that would be good for Tampa, the rest of the Gulf, and your vacation.


If JB is right. That 10 day Euro 500 mb pattern would look like a South Florida to Central Gulf track, but any model that far out is more for quantitative, than qualitative, information.

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan AFD:

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL WAVE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...AND MAY
SIGNAL THE END TO THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THERE.
STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

[Tampa_God]

Well, if this pulls to becoming something and the ridge sets up like above, than thats gonna suck. Me and my paps are heading to Europe this Sunday and I know if anything starts even making a hint of entering the GOM, my mother will be flipping out. And funny thing is, 2008 has been a active year and I'm heading to Europe and I went to Europe in 2005 and look what happened. Maybe I should never travel to Europe ever again.

Good news, is a long and thoughtful post, Joe Bastardi today said he suspects the majority of the rest of the season is Florida and points North, not Florida and points West.

Nothing against people in North Carolina or Martha's Vienyard. But that would be good for Tampa, the rest of the Gulf, and your vacation.


If JB is right. That 10 day Euro 500 mb pattern would look like a South Florida to Central Gulf track, but any model that far out is more for quantitative, than qualitative, information.

Hopefully, I don't want my fun to be spoiled.

[Mecklenburg]

From the San Juan AFD:

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL WAVE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...AND MAY
SIGNAL THE END TO THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THERE.
STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

it gives hope...

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 48 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif


18z GFS at 114 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

18z GFS at 126 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

18z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

18z GFS at 162 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif A stronger run for this system.

[KWT]

Interesting to see whether the Bermuda high will try and at least throw a upper ridge westwards again like the ECM hints it will, the UKMO pattern strongly hints at recurve IF it gets strong enough however the big uncertainty is how the Bermuda high reacts agfter 144hrs because there is a sneaking chance it could at least try and build back westwards.

[Mecklenburg]

Interesting to see whether the Bermuda high will try and at least throw a upper ridge westwards again like the ECM hints it will, the UKMO pattern strongly hints at recurve IF it gets strong enough however the big uncertainty is how the Bermuda high reacts agfter 144hrs because there is a sneaking chance it could at least try and build back westwards.

is early to say if Fay would be a biggie?

[HURAKAN]

From the San Juan AFD:

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL WAVE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...AND MAY
SIGNAL THE END TO THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THERE.
STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

it gives hope...

It's just a matter of time. Lets enjoy the free time and watch the Pacific fish.

[Mecklenburg]

From the San Juan AFD:

IN THE LONGER RANGE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL WAVE
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND...AND MAY
SIGNAL THE END TO THE PAST TWO WEEKS OF QUIET CONDITIONS THERE.
STAY TUNED TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

it gives hope...

It's just a matter of time. Lets enjoy the free time and watch the Pacific fish.

ok... is it unusual to have the EPac very active in early august? and also central pacific can have 2 systems now... i think it's bad news for the atlantic season...

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 48 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif


18z GFS at 114 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

18z GFS at 126 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif

18z GFS at 138 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

18z GFS at 162 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif A stronger run in this 18z run.

18z GFS at 228 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif


18z GFS at 288 Hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif Over Bermuda

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif

Ok,its pure fantasy land,but this threats Nova Scotia.And by the way,another system threatens the Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

ok... is it unusual to have the EPac very active in early august? and also central pacific can have 2 systems now... i think it's bad news for the atlantic season...

Th EPAC is most active during July and August. It starts to go down on September. Their September is like our October.

[Mecklenburg]

ok... is it unusual to have the EPac very active in early august? and also central pacific can have 2 systems now... i think it's bad news for the atlantic season...

Th EPAC is most active during July and August. It starts to go down on September. Their September is like our October.

oh, so it's their peak now?

[Scorpion]

ok... is it unusual to have the EPac very active in early august? and also central pacific can have 2 systems now... i think it's bad news for the atlantic season...

Th EPAC is most active during July and August. It starts to go down on September. Their September is like our October.

oh, so it's their peak now?

Without a doubt.

[Mecklenburg]

convection is really firing up now over this...

[cycloneye]

371
ABNT20 KNHC 082329
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

If I have to guess,they will start to mention it on Saturday morning at 8 AM.

[Mecklenburg]

371
ABNT20 KNHC 082329
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

If I have to guess,they will start to mention it on Saturday morning at 8 AM.

you know what, they also said that during the time 24 hours before dolly formed...

[cycloneye]

From the 8 PM Discussion:

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 11N26W 7N40W 8N50W 8N62W. A
LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST AN COVERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 13W-17W. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... scussions/

[cycloneye]

One word Impressive!

[Mecklenburg]

One word Impressive!

kinda looks disorganized... but wait till 12hours... maybe it can pull itself together..

[cycloneye]

kinda looks disorganized... but wait till 12hours... maybe it can pull itself together..

I think you did not looked at the right system,its on the coast emerging.