Area Of Disturbed Weather In NW Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

Yes Blown_away I agree with you, its gradually organizing but as Wxman says the key is persistent convection. This setup reminds me alot of the SW-NE oriented trough that spawned the first system of the season way back in June. When troughs linger around the NW Caribbean, and its October, then anything is possible. This trough is just lingering around.

The NHC is slowly coming on board as expected, upper-level winds should become more favorable over the next few days as the big trouhg to the north lifts out and is replaced by ridging. Then, if convection is still persisting I would expect to see the NHC indicate development is possible and that is when the board would see a marked increase in postings on this area.

[Blown Away]

CODE YELLOW

[Blown Away]

Yes Blown_away I agree with you, its gradually organizing but as Wxman says the key is persistent convection. This setup reminds me alot of the SW-NE oriented trough that spawned the first system of the season way back in June. When troughs linger around the NW Caribbean, and its October, then anything is possible. This trough is just lingering around.

The NHC is slowly coming on board as expected, upper-level winds should become more favorable over the next few days as the big trouhg to the north lifts out and is replaced by ridging. Then, if convection is still persisting I would expect to see the NHC indicate development is possible and that is when the board would see a marked increase in postings on this area.

The convection has been persistent for the past 24 hours and has slowly consolidated in the Gulf of Honduras.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks like a sheared mess to me. BTW, the wind from the Caribbean into Florida at high levels is just whipping judging from the satellite loop, and a nice blob of convection moving away over the Bahamas is convection that won't help anything in the Caribbean form.


Yellow alert sounds right, development, if any, looks slow to occur.


In my humble and amateur opinion.

[bahamaswx]

Recorded a gust of 38mph in that blob over me. Some much needed rain too!

[Sanibel]

If it is going to form it should burst tomorrow.

There's a feature over by Tobago that looks interesting.

[fci]

Yes, this is the time for us to watch every little cyclonic turn and burned out old fronts down in the Carib.

KUEFC:
Gatorcane is NOT out of line in his observation and either is Lonny.

If you are interpreting Dr. Masters to be calling "season over", believe me, he is not.

We are only a few weeks to a month away from not worrying but now is the time to be very watchful if you live in South Florida. But, Ed can almost safely make his claim that it IS season over for Texas. However, the last time he did..........

anywhere in florida this time of year

Yes, you are correct, ANYWHERE in Florida.

[KUEFC]

Looking at the models and guess what...............still nothing,

and the people getting excited that they put a code yellow on it, was it not a code yellow just a few days back?

IMO very very disorganized, can something happen? of course, but if it moves to the north its going to be hitting very strong shear still, 60 kts in some places,

i still think people are just really hoping something happens, which is sad due to all the death and destruction to peoples lives,

[AJC3]

I still think people are just really hoping something happens, which is sad due to all the death and destruction to peoples lives,

Before anyone takes time out to report, or respond to, this part of the post...the user has officially been warned.

Carry on...

[SouthFloridawx]

Could be an interesting couple of days... Very slow moving area, with 1009mb attached. Wait to see if the shear to the North pulls out as the front continues to die.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

We may see an invest today if this area maintains the convection. This area continues to slowly improve in organization.

[Blown Away]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 031143
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[jinftl]

Interest in storms and tracking does not mean anyone is wishing death and destruction. Some folks are genuinely interested in observing and studying mother nature.

What brings you here....with an interest enough to post? If you are not hoping to observe and learn about storms, what is the motivation to post on a storm message board?

edit: I took the bait of this post before I saw the post saying the poster has been warned.....didn't mean to give your words extra shelf-life...back to disturbance in caribbean....

Looking at the models and guess what...............still nothing,

and the people getting excited that they put a code yellow on it, was it not a code yellow just a few days back?

IMO very very disorganized, can something happen? of course, but if it moves to the north its going to be hitting very strong shear still, 60 kts in some places,

i still think people are just really hoping something happens, which is sad due to all the death and destruction to peoples lives,

[gatorcane]

Deep Convection is on the increase in the NW Caribbean when it appeared it was waning quite a bit last night, this convection burst is just what the area needed. Although nothing is organized its that persistent convection we are looking for here. Let's see if this burst is going to remain. It wouldn't surprise me to see some convection "pulsing" over the next 48 hours or so. I do think its going to be our next invest.

It looks to be shaping up as a "classic" October setup and system so far. Here is the wind shear tendency. The northern half of the NW Caribbean and most of the GOM is very unfavorable at the moment. But the Southern side of the NW Caribbean is seeing decreasing wind shear. So, that is why the NHC indicates only "marginally" favorable conditions but that could change in a couple of days as the big Canadian Low N of the Great Lakes pulls out to the NE and along with it, the strong Westerly wind shear in the NW Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the models and guess what...............still nothing,

and the people getting excited that they put a code yellow on it, was it not a code yellow just a few days back?

IMO very very disorganized, can something happen? of course, but if it moves to the north its going to be hitting very strong shear still, 60 kts in some places

KUEFC, about your comment of strong wind shear to the north of it. Yes that is true but we are not in a static situation here. My post above describes the likelyhood of decreasing shear to the north as the big Canadian Maritime Low pulls out to the NE.....in a few days the entire NW Caribbean and the Southern GOM could very-well see much lower shear than what we are seeing at the moment.

[jinftl]

NHC has made slight change in wording from "development is not expected" yesterday to "DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR" this morning.

Invest later today or tomorrow if convections persists?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

We may see an invest today if this area maintains the convection. This area continues to slowly improve in organization.

[tailgater]

I know shear forecast are pretty tough, but according to this forecast the shear in the GOM should keep anything trying to move north in check.

Southern Fla. will have to keep a close watch though.

[boca]

When you have a low pressure connected within a frontal trough its hard to differentiate between a frontal low and a tropical sytem that is developing.I agree it looks like a typical Oct set up for Florida to watch to the south.I would think if that convection stays down there its a tropical sytem, or if its a frontal low it will move NE along the frontal trough.

[HURAKAN]

Invest likely coming soon.

Floater INVEST: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Stormcenter]

Yep this looks like an invest in the making. IMO