Disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean (Is invest 93L)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I see a distinct circulation in that picture...paloma knocking?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh nevermind that is just a structure-
but something looks to be rotating near central america, in the
SW caribbean, heavy convection too. Paloma in 2-3 days IMO.

[Sanibel]

Think we have a system here folks.

[CourierPR]

Think we have a system here folks.

Sanibel, I agree. I wonder if pressure is falling down there.

[tolakram]

Way too much shear, in my opinion.

[jinftl]

[boca]

Something sure looks like it wants to get going down there.Their does look like some banding type of a look with the cloud structure north of Panama.I think this system will head NE possibly if it develops.This looks better than td#16 as of late which headed into CA.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot I made in GARP. It does show a broad, weak low in the SW Caribbean. No well-defined center. General area might be 14N/78W. About 1010mb. There does not appear to be significant wind shear that far south. If it was to develop in 3-4 days, then a track NE toward eastern Cuba and/or the DR would be most likely. Doesn't look like much of a chance of moving into the Gulf - even the SE Gulf.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Disorganized, but there does appear to be a very broad low in the area. So we will see.

[Blown Away]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalmaps/

The TAFB is now showing a surface low in 24 hours and this surface low meanders N of Panama just offshore through 72 hours. The NCEP moves this low N than NE through Jamaica towards, you guessed it, Haiti in 7 days.

[gatorcane]

Well kudos to the GFS and other models for nailing this area nearly 10 days ago (note when I started this thread) and indeed something is trying to organize in the SW Caribbean.

It looks like whatever forms would move North for a bit then off to the NE and affect Cuba or Haiti -- as models have been suggesting for several days now.

[Sanibel]

A little warm-topped today. May slowly be trying to spin something in the last favorable pocket of 2008. Are we still in a positive MJO? Edit: Masters says we are MJO negative until the 15th.


I'm also amazed how the models can sometimes pull these out of thin air.

[MGC]

Looks a bit more organized since yesterday. Shear to its north is pretty hostile though. Even has a bit of a spin. Invest later today?.....MGC

[Blown Away]

"CODE YELLOW" for the SW Caribbean.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 021730
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters is on board with 'strong potential' for development....says 'unlikely to effect u.s. this week'....not sure if that leaves door open to u.s. impact 'next week' or he forecasts no u.s. threat at all.

An area of disturbed weather, associated with the tail end of a stalled-out cold front, has developed in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This disturbance has a strong potential to develop into a tropical storm by late this week. This morning's QuikSCAT pass revealed an elongated circulation center near 11N 77W, about 300 miles northeast of the Panama Canal. Wind shear is a moderate 10-20 knots over the disturbance, and visible satellite images show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage and intensity across most of the south-central Caribbean.

The forecast
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10-20 knots, over the southern Caribbean during the remainder of the week. Most of the models support additional development of this disturbance, though none of them show anything stronger than a weak tropical storm developing this week. Steering currents are weak, but a slow west-northwest to northwest motion is likely beginning on Tuesday, when an intensifying extratropical storm off the east coast of Florida should impart northwesterly steering currents over the southern Caribbean. I give a high (>50% chance) that this disturbance will develop into Tropical Storm Paloma this week, and a 40% chance that it will eventually become a hurricane. Northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras appear most at risk of heavy rains from the disturbance, although Panama and Costa Rica may also begin receiving heavy rains on Monday. The ECMWF model predicts that the disturbance will move over Jamaica on Friday, and it certainly possible that the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti may receive heavy rains from this storm by the end of the week. It is unlikely that the disturbance will affect the U.S. this week.

I'll have an update Monday morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1142



Satellite looking interesting....to the untrained eye, it appears to be getting a bit more organized..

[wxman57]

...snip...

The TAFB is now showing a surface low in 24 hours and this surface low meanders N of Panama just offshore through 72 hours. The NCEP moves this low N than NE through Jamaica towards, you guessed it, Haiti in 7 days.

Actually, there has been a surface low there since at least yesterday. I didn't look at the area on Friday, it may have been there then, too. It's common to have a weak low pressure area in the SW Caribbean in the early season as well as the late season as the ITCZ sinks southward. But this low does have the potential to develop over the coming week.

The wind shear is forecast to be quite high across the entire Gulf through northern Cuba all through next week, with no decrease in sight. In fact, shear increases later in the week, as you can see in the lower left panel of the 00Z ECMWF. Notice the pink area of 30+ kt shear digging into the NW Caribbean by days 6-7:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

So whatever does develop down there almost certainly isn't moving toward the Gulf (or Florida). It may meander around then move ashore into Central America (or dissipate) or it could be picked up and taken northeastward toward the DR, sort of like Omar.

Here's this afternoon's surface analysis with satellite overlay. As you can see, a well-defined surface low is already there:

[CrazyC83]

Way too much shear in between for it to threaten the US.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 022326
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JonathanBelles]

I still believe that this system has little to no chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Between land interaction and rising shear factors, this system has a falling chance of development in my opinion UNLESS it can move in a way similar to Omar.

[CourierPR]

I still believe that this system has little to no chance of tropical cyclogenesis. Between land interaction and rising shear factors, this system has a falling chance of development in my opinion UNLESS it can move in a way similar to Omar.

The NHC disagrees and has elevated the probability to code orange.