2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season is here!

[Category 5]

Not a prediction...


Texas, as a whole, gets a tropical storm every other year, and a hurricane, about half as often, and Southeast Texas, once a decade,


Well, after Humberto and Ike, Houston/BPT area has a few years of break due.



But probabilities are only probabilities,


Texas, a standard 60 mph tropical storm, and Delaware to Massachusetts, due for a high end Cat 2.


All unofficial, of course.

And if JB's 1960s analogs hold, New Orleans to Pensacola, a rough August ahead.

You need to stop making predictions Ed, now you've sunk to who's "due".

Then again, it can't bomb as much as the "Texas season is over" bit last season.

And wow, JB, is NOT slamming a cat 3 into me this year?

And I didn't miss the "this is not a prediction" part, just stating that you followed it with a prediction.

[pojo]

I remember that last years tour was in mid March when the plane came to Ponce,Puerto Rico.But anyone who knows the dates when the Hurricane Hunters annual tour will be this year can post them and I will add it to the list of events prior to June 1 that is in the first post of thread.

It was 22-29 March.... It just wrapped up today.

[KWT]

Under 2 months now before the start of the hurricane season, really starting to close in now on the time period where tropical systems can form.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

"Under 2 months now before the start of the hurricane season, really starting to close in now on the time period where tropical systems can form"

Yep,yep, yep, getting excited for the season. Not for people troubles though.

Is it true that JB has predicted a major NC storm for this season? OuterBanks has been so built up and the beaches are great. Would be sad.

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Found this on CNN via google about 2009 Hurricane predictions:

"AccuWeather projected that four of the hurricanes in 2009 will hit the U.S. East Coast or Gulf Coast, and one of those will be a Category 3.

Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief long-range forecaster, wrote on the company's Web site that this year's "storms may be more likely to form in the Atlantic Basin closer to the coast, and the possibility of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S. cannot be ruled out."

WSI, on its Web site, said its predictions for 2009 stemmed from the expected continuation of "warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into next summer and fall, and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment associated with the lack of an El Niño event."

Guess that answers my own question.

[gatorcane]

personally I don't look at predictions. They really don't mean much as we don't have much of a clue where these systems will go let alone how many will form.

It is fun to try and guess though other than that I see the effort more in making sure you are prepared for the worst with a hurricane preparation plan.

The fact of the matter is if you live anywhere along the coast in the US or the islands in the Atlantic/Caribbean, there is some chance in which we cannot mathematically determine that you could be hit by a hurricane or storm, no matter how much you think "it can't possibly happen to me."

[cycloneye]

It will be a interesting next week as two of the most followed experts will issue their April forecasts for the 2009 Atlantic season.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So now we know JB's ideas this season. What does everyone think Gray and Klousbach or whatever his name is.Will predict on April 7th. I say 15/7/3.

[Typhoon_Willie]

We will see what these experts are going to say in the next week... I hope that no one will be adversely affected by this years storms.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not a prediction...


Texas, as a whole, gets a tropical storm every other year, and a hurricane, about half as often, and Southeast Texas, once a decade,


Well, after Humberto and Ike, Houston/BPT area has a few years of break due.



But probabilities are only probabilities,


Texas, a standard 60 mph tropical storm, and Delaware to Massachusetts, due for a high end Cat 2.


All unofficial, of course.

And if JB's 1960s analogs hold, New Orleans to Pensacola, a rough August ahead.

You need to stop making predictions Ed, now you've sunk to who's "due".

Then again, it can't bomb as much as the "Texas season is over" bit last season.

And wow, JB, is NOT slamming a cat 3 into me this year?

And I didn't miss the "this is not a prediction" part, just stating that you followed it with a prediction.

Who is "due" isn't really a prediction. Just because a place that normally sees a storm about every twenty years has gone 50 without, doesn't mean it doesn't go years more without. Like rolling dice.


Texas could get a storm. But really, it is New Jersey's turn. Not a prediction. But after the beating of the late former Dallas Cowboy's unofficial mascot "Crazy Ray" in PHL at a Monday Night Game about 15 years ago, being due doesn't affect the weather, but I'll be watching for Hurricane Isabel displaced a few hundred miles North around the beginning of September very, very closely.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.

Not a w|sh-cast...

[Cookie]

ideally I'd like a few cat 5 hurricanes, I know this sounds stupid but if they could just do circles in the Atlantic and avoid land, that we us hurricanes loves could watch them form etc and wouldn't cause damage of loss of life. sadly mother nature doesn't work that way.

[tgenius]

Those of us in South FL don't have to worry; When I got my accordions put in my condo in 2006, no storms.. I'm getting my accordions put up on the house next week, so we should be free and clear!

[caribepr]

My brother will be very happy to hear that, thanks!

[gatorcane]

39 more days....it amazing that it almost here again.

[ROCK]

39 more days....it amazing that it almost here again.

yep, we are closing in rapidly Gator....I am not into making predictions but FL is one I have to make this year. Sorry but the odds are against you my friend. ....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Don't agree Rock. I think the East coast trough will hold and Carolina's on up will be more of the focus. As for the Gulf. Anything goes. It will be a tricky year. To say the least. Will El Nino develop? Will the SST rise? Will The Azores HIGH weaken? I think they'll know more about these factors in June.

[KatDaddy]

Whats frightening is the fact we are going on 26 years since the last major hurricane struck Houston-Galveston Areas. Rita went inland in SW LA and IKE was not a major hurricane. Hopefully this will not be the year however we are in a 40s-50s pattern which brought major canes in 1945 and 1949. Numerous CAT 1-2 storm made landfall.......40, 41, 42, 43, and 47.

[olddude]

gatorcane wrote:
39 more days....it amazing that it almost here again.

yep, we are closing in rapidly Gator....I am not into making predictions but FL is one I have to make this year. Sorry but the odds are against you my friend.

Sigh... Now if I can just get the closing done on a house I'm selling down here...

Scott

[HURAKAN]

It keeps getting closer and closer.