GFS/NAM Develop a Closed Low in the GOM End of This Week

[LaBreeze]

Tropical funnels and some hail reported around here today.

[Aric Dunn]

was about to mention this but did not know the models developed anything....

but watch the SW gulf and the bay of campechee for a possible low to form over the next 24 to 36 hours.. lots of shear but that may break a little in the coming days. but right now the strong upper winds are helping the convection to build. if we get a surface low to form and then the shear drop off some as it accelerates NE ( if it were to close of a low) some development would be possible...

[micktooth]

Tonight's NHC Discussion:
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N-31N
BETWEEN 89W-93W DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER E OVER THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA N OF 26N
AND E OF 89W. THE ENTIRE GULF HAS SE WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KT. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 89W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...A WEAK LOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[Sanibel]

Visible satellite shows a very weak spin near the Mississippi Delta. Too weak.

[poof121]

According to NCEP, they analyze a weak low just around the Mississippi delta, 1014 mb. Earlier they analyzed it near the Mississippi/Louisiana border. It seems it drifted south, but the steering product for 1000-1010 mb systems from CIMSS shows it should have a slight NE movement. Or is that because of the system itself? Either way, which way does it look like the low is headed? If anyone could either answer my question, or possibly point me to where I could look to find this out, I'd appreciate it.

[inda_iwall]

I believe your low came ashore near pensacola and is currently swirling in south alabama near the border with florida, north of Destin.

[vbhoutex]

I believe your low came ashore near pensacola and is currently swirling in south alabama near the border with florida, north of Destin.

On radar it appears that there may be a main low over NW LA and a mini-vortex where you are talking about. Either way both are rotating like a low pressure area. I have done no aanlysis past looking at radar, so I can't offer any in depth analysis.

[tailgater]

Time to close this thread IMHO.

[southerngale]

There's no reason to close it. If the low that the GFS/NAM developed on May 27th didn't happen, then the thread should just die on its own. If something else comes up, whoever wants to can start a new thread about the new subject.

[Sanibel]

I can tell you by the feel of the skin with the heat in the house last night the Gulf is ripe.

[Stormcenter]

The Gulf is always ripe in June but that's only part of the equation to get an organized system
to develop there.

I can tell you by the feel of the skin with the heat in the house last night the Gulf is ripe.

[Sanibel]

That Low currently over very north Florida is probably the Low that was predicted.