Development between Africa and Lesser Antilles (6/28 - 7/4)

[cycloneye]

What about this nice structured wave Looks interesting,but the real test is going to start from now as the travel thru the Atlantic will be with hurdles to pass.But after the 93L debacle,lets watch this.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

From the 2 PM TWD:

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N18W 6N42W 6N46W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 14W-22W AND
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE W
AFRICA COAST.

[cycloneye]

A keeper so far,but a rough path ahead awaits.

[MGC]

Convection is rapidly diminishing. Still way too early for a CV system. Perhaps this wave will eventually do something futher west.....MGC

[Sanibel]

Spotted that right off. Dry but has the shape.

[cycloneye]

From the 8 AM Discussion.

..A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS LIKELY MOVED OFF THE W
AFRICAN COAST AND IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG 20W S OF 17N. THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY IN THIS AREA SHOW THIS
WELL-DEFINED FEATURE MOVING W NEAR 15 KT AND COINCIDING WITH A
RATHER HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED INVERTED-V PATTERN IN THE COVERAGE OF
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ALSO...CYCLONIC MOTION OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IS
EVIDENT NEAR THIS FEATURE. TIME-HEIGHT ANALYSES FROM DAKAR
SENEGAL INDICATE AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF ANOMALOUS FLOW BELOW THE 750
MB LEVEL FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 28/1200
UTC...INDICATING THAT WAVE PASSAGE LIKELY OCCURRED AT DAKAR
AROUND THAT TIME. THIS FEATURE COINCIDES WITH A DISTINCT MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. THUS...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BE ADDED
TO THE 29/1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLC.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[HURAKAN]

Poof.

[Sanibel]

Atlantic will eat up anything that touches it off Africa at this time of the season.


Ghost system.

[cycloneye]

This thread is on death roll unless a huge miracle occurs before saturday.

[msbee]

ain't gonna happen Luis
\you know that!

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Watch it vaporize once it hits the Atlantic waters.

[Dean4Storms]

Just way too early to expect much out there, give it about a month.

[OpieStorm]

This time of year the focus is more close to home.

[Sanibel]

Looks like one of those Africa waves re-fired:

[Sjones]

Sure looks like it did, but IMO I think it will vaporize within 24 hrs.

[HURAKAN]

[Bailey1777]

Nice refire around 5N - 35W. Any thoughts on potential?

[WeatherLovingDoc]

http://tiny.cc/wUM9w