Development with Tropical Wave in MDR?

Derek Ortt · #61 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:33 pm

the biggest worry for the next week is if anyone will not have died from boredom by watching this week's Tour de France stages. Tropical development... well... lets just say it is way down the list of worries

#62 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:35 pm

Hey peeps! We may want to watch behind,as maybe the real deal may be the one just off the coast.Mark (Hurricanetrack) this was the area you pointed out earlier today.

ronjon · #63 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:36 pm

Its fiction, but the 18Z GFS brings the system into the mid-atlantic after it brushes the carolina coast in 10 days. Looks like at some the point the persistent east trough lifts out and bermuda ridge builds in nudging the system to the west. Of course, the GFS has for about the last 2-3 weeks insisted on building the Bermuda High only to revert in later runs to more east coast troughiness.

#64 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 7:46 pm

Don't see much right now but it could be interesting down the road with this one. Time and persistence will tell!!

#65 Postby **BigA** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:08 pm

Both the wave around 33 west and the one behind it look pretty solid. With the GFS and EURO hinting at development of the wave in front, I think it has a decent chance, but it's still early in the year.

#66 Postby **lonelymike** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 8:49 pm

Check back in about 5 weeks. Kinda early for a Cape Verde anyways. I'm sure the guys and gals at the NHC don't want the online poker tournament interupted this week :lol:

#67 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 9:05 pm

#68 Postby **abajan** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 9:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:Hey peeps! We may want to watch behind,as maybe the real deal may be the one just off the coast.Mark (Hurricanetrack) this was the area you pointed out earlier today.

Well, it looks pretty good right now but over the past several years I've been fooled way too many times by juicy looking systems out by Africa. But with nothing else really going on, I guess it's something to watch.

Lifesgud2 · #69 Postby **Lifesgud2** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 9:29 pm

Yea..Check back mid to late August as maybe things could get interesting then. Nothing happening until then...

#70 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 10:40 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rb.html

Looking like our first major

floridasun78 · #71 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:25 pm

i wanted to see if make it throught night to see how it look but yes this look like our first strong wave we see travling from afica coast to central atlantic

Aric Dunn · #72 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:27 pm

well the 12z Euro now hangs onto the system ...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

floridasun78 · #73 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jul 13, 2009 11:31 pm

more model show wave in that area more we need watch it i think nhc wait to put it on outlook when it move north of 10n that a bit too low and see if weaking at night

SEASON_CANCELED · #74 Postby **SEASON_CANCELED** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 4:48 am

Worth watching. It isnt too early. Temps are ok. Dry air to the north. Shear ahead of it. It could. im saying this season will be wacky and busy

#75 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:18 am

00z CMC

The Canadian model gets into this,but takes a different track than GFS,EURO.It tracks to south of Puerto Rico and slams into Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,look at the pics above in this page,how convective is that area South of the CV islands.Instead of convection weakening after the exit from Africa,it has gained.

SEASON_CANCELED · #76 Postby **SEASON_CANCELED** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 5:22 am

ya it looks great this morning on visible.

#77 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:24 am

The second wave closer to AF does have more organization.

#78 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:30 am

Not bad.

Aric Dunn · #79 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 7:37 am

Nice mid level rotation from the area farther west .. also a little higher latitude ... hmmm...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

#80 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Jul 14, 2009 8:01 am

cycloneye wrote:00z CMC

The Canadian model gets into this,but takes a different track than GFS,EURO.It tracks to south of Puerto Rico and slams into Hispanola.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

By the way,look at the pics above in this page,how convective is that area South of the CV islands.Instead of convection weakening after the exit from Africa,it has gained.

Yeah that is interesting. The 00Z ECMWF moves it much more west now just north of the leewards/Hispaniola/DR. Then as a tropical wave/weak low into the Bahamas and then Southern FL. In fact looking at the Geopotential 500 hPa, it builds back in the Bermuda High pretty strongly as soon as the big trough lifts out at 168 hours.

It just shows that the ridge/trough setup 7+ days out can definitely change. It's likely going to keep changing. Of course there is only a small chance anything develops in the first place, the best we can hope for.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9071400!!/

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