EAST COAST DEVELOPMENT

[xironman]

Mid levels closing in on the surface

[deltadog03]

I think its pretty clear we have a llc....i understand winds are only around 20mph ish, but hmmmm.................

[Aric Dunn]

Is there evidence of a closed circulation? Any reports of west winds where you would expect if this was developing? No doubt this is a system casuing inclement weather....but structure-wise, is this a tropical low at the surface with a closed off circulation?

no joke.. everything i can see makes this a depression..

sometimes I wonder about the NHC

i know the upper winds are "not favorable" for significant development but when something meets the criteria .. it meets the criteria even if its for only 24 hours..

and considering the models want to keep the feature around for a little while.. cant seem to figure it out..

oh well..

the buoy just off shore sitting right near the center..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013
[img[/img]

I have found NW winds but we should have a report from that part of the system in the next hour or so as it passes a nearby buoy..
all other data suggest a closed circ and its tropical with temp and dew point profiles from the stations over land and offshore buoys showing pretty good evidence of it.. structure wise .. I have seen worse..

as i said .. this buoy would show the west wind ... the center passed right over it..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013

[BigA]

Pressure of 29.80 and west wind at Frying Pan Shoals. This seems to me to have a closed LLC, and maybe is technically a depression.

[Aric Dunn]

well it should be inland soon looks like it wobbled a little closer to the coast .. I still forecast it to make it east of Hatteras then stall ..

[jinftl]

Strongest wind reading I can find for any buoy within 50 km of Frying Pan Shoals is a sustained wind of 22 mph. Most areas are much lower, and no other reports within 50 km of west winds. I am definitely reading and taking in all the posts and the great info provided, but i just can't see this being the unclassified td of the 2009 season right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

[Aric Dunn]

Strongest wind reading I can find for any buoy within 50 km of Frying Pan Shoals is a sustained wind of 22 mph. Most areas are much lower, and no other reports within 50 km of west winds. I am definitely reading and taking in all the posts and the great info provided, but i just can't see this being the unclassified td of the 2009 season right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

problem is the strongest winds are on the east side and we have no obs out there.. check earlier obs.. when the system was farther south.
there plenty of wind 25kts
with some gusting to to near TS..

i dont think they will upgrade either they have already said no..

cant be wrong can they ..

[MGC]

Looks like the center of circulation is just off shore of Cape Fear. This does not look like a TD as there is no convection near the CC. If it sits for a while it could slowly aquire some tropical characteristics.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Strongest wind reading I can find for any buoy within 50 km of Frying Pan Shoals is a sustained wind of 22 mph. Most areas are much lower, and no other reports within 50 km of west winds. I am definitely reading and taking in all the posts and the great info provided, but i just can't see this being the unclassified td of the 2009 season right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

problem is the strongest winds are on the east side and we have no obs out there.. check earlier obs.. when the system was farther south.
there plenty of wind 25kts
with some gusting to to near TS..

i dont think they will upgrade either they have already said no..

cant be wrong can they ..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41035
also here is a good report .. 29kts gusting to 33kts..

its a depression.. lol
again oh well.. if you live in the area go outside and enjoy what may be the last tropical system of the season .. for the area..

[jinftl]

This wouldn't be a miss by just the NHC....i have not found one pro met or meteorological organization talking about this system developing. Not catching this....even if just a td (as opposed to an equally squallly non-tropical system) would be a 'miss' by the entire meteorologic community. Just not seeing the evidence strong enough to make that claim.

Strongest wind reading I can find for any buoy within 50 km of Frying Pan Shoals is a sustained wind of 22 mph. Most areas are much lower, and no other reports within 50 km of west winds. I am definitely reading and taking in all the posts and the great info provided, but i just can't see this being the unclassified td of the 2009 season right now.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=1

problem is the strongest winds are on the east side and we have no obs out there.. check earlier obs.. when the system was farther south.
there plenty of wind 25kts
with some gusting to to near TS..

i dont think they will upgrade either they have already said no..

cant be wrong can they ..

[Aric Dunn]

wow are you kidding me on this not being a TD.. i mean come on look at this. I dont even have to circle the center for you .. lol

[cycloneye]

There it is Aric.

[Aric Dunn]

yep

[BigA]

Winds off the NC Coast are really picking up. Looking at buoys, I´ve seen sustained as high as 33.4 mph, and gusts as high as 47.2 mph. Pressure as low as 29.79 Combined with the radar image, this is definitely a TD IMHO. The radar signature definitely looks better than Claudette did at landfall.

[brunota2003]

Even a nontropical low can bring serious problems:

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
611 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

NCC031-049-133-080000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.FA.W.0010.090907T2211Z-090908T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAVEN NC-CARTERET NC-ONSLOW NC-
611 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...
CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAVELOCK...
ONSLOW COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH...PINEY GREEN...
NEW RIVER AIR STATION...JACKSONVILLE...CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 604 PM EDT A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE WERE ADVANCING
NORTH TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS THEY MOVE INLAND...BUT DUE TO THEIR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT OF
NORTH AT 15 MPH AREAS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
COUNTIES OF ONSLOW...CARTERET...AND CRAVEN.

EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES HAS SATURATED
THE GROUND. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA BEACHES
AND URBAN AREAS...WILL SEE HIGH RUNOFF RATES. DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND COULD OVERRUN INTO AREA ROADWAYS.

[jinftl]

And spin counterclockwise on satellite and radar...there is no doubt there is a low pressure system out there...that is a necessary, but not sufficient, requirement to name this a tropical low. NHC updates Tropical Weather Discussion and color codes in an hour...this will either be yellow or yellow.

Even a nontropical low can bring serious problems:

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
611 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

NCC031-049-133-080000-
/O.NEW.KMHX.FA.W.0010.090907T2211Z-090908T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CRAVEN NC-CARTERET NC-ONSLOW NC-
611 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEWPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
CARTERET COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...MOREHEAD CITY...BEAUFORT...
CRAVEN COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HAVELOCK...
ONSLOW COUNTY IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH...PINEY GREEN...
NEW RIVER AIR STATION...JACKSONVILLE...CAMP LEJEUNE MAIN GATE...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 604 PM EDT A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE WERE ADVANCING
NORTH TOWARDS THE CRYSTAL COAST REGION. THESE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS THEY MOVE INLAND...BUT DUE TO THEIR SLOW STORM MOVEMENT OF
NORTH AT 15 MPH AREAS COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE
COUNTIES OF ONSLOW...CARTERET...AND CRAVEN.

EARLIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES HAS SATURATED
THE GROUND. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AREA BEACHES
AND URBAN AREAS...WILL SEE HIGH RUNOFF RATES. DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND COULD OVERRUN INTO AREA ROADWAYS.

[drezee]

The NHC has ignored much better systems than this...last year's strong TS that hit the Carolinas

[Aric Dunn]

And spin counterclockwise on satellite and radar...there is no doubt there is a low pressure system out there...that is a necessary, but not sufficient, requirement to name this a tropical low

Even a nontropical low can bring serious problems:

.

there is plenty of data supporting a TD .. winds for one..

and the key part is it warm core.. answer yes..

the buoy's closest to the center passes today had higher temps and dew point then surrounding reports indicating a gradient of warming as yo approach the center.

[jinftl]

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

And spin counterclockwise on satellite and radar...there is no doubt there is a low pressure system out there...that is a necessary, but not sufficient, requirement to name this a tropical low

Even a nontropical low can bring serious problems:

.

there is plenty of data supporting a TD .. winds for one..

and the key part is it warm core.. answer yes..

the buoy's closest to the center passes today had higher temps and dew point then surrounding reports indicating a gradient of warming as yo approach the center.

[Aric Dunn]

I have to ask...and I say this with alot of respect for the detail of data you have provided...why is no one jumping on this then at the NHC, NWS offices, even TWC (Dr. Lyons mainly), accuweather or wunderground? There could be 60 mph winds and this still wouldn't be a td. Remember Erika last week....she had convection with winds of that speed but still wasn't labeled a td until recon found an organized center later on. It was labeled by some on here as the best looking invest ever and some were baffled why this wasn't declared a td tuesday night. Radar and satellite can only tell so much, and they can not tell you whether a low is a tropical low or non-tropical.

not paying attention to it.. we have a new TD in the eastern pacific and Atlantic .. also its a little late to put any sort of warnings out.. lol

radar at this range is very helpful .. and this is way different from erika we have a bunch of buoys already
showing every direction of wind needed .. pressure are still failing and winds are still increasing .. think what you will