Western Caribbean / SW Gulf Development??

[BigA]

If any development comes out of this, it will probably be from the northwestern part of the energy that is heading into the Yucatan this morning. Shear is pretty favorable in the BOC, and the GFS hints at a low forming there in the next 24-48 hours, though it doesn't keep it for very long.

[wxman57]

I dont think we will be seeing development in the next 48 hours. Shear has increased quite a bit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Just 10 kts or less and decreasing in its path across the BoC by late tomorrow though. That's where we have to watch for possible development. Most likely, it would continue tracking westward into Mexico. Development chances aren't high, but one could argue that they're significantly higher than for that one area by the Cape Verde Islands that the NHC has circled. And this area of storms could possibly affect someone in the near future.

[IvanSurvivor]

Latest observation from anyone that knows what they are talking about???

[Blown Away]

Low in BOC in 24 hours and inland by 48 hours.

[CourierPR]

I see the low on that map. I am, however, puzzled by the persistent convection in the western Caribbean that has remained in place since Wednesday. What is going on?

[IvanSurvivor]

Buoy # 42057 reporting 29.79 in/1008.81 mb...been slowly falling all day.

[Derek Ortt]

again, 1009 is way way way too high for anything to develop in this area this time of year

wake me up when there is a 1003mb pressure. I'll take a mild interest in the system then

[tailgater]

Okay we'll wake you.

SSSHH!
Current Weather Conditions:
Ciudad Del Carmen , Mexico
(MMCE) 18-39N 091-48W

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Conditions at Sep 24, 2009 - 04:45 PM EDTSep 24, 2009 - 03:45 PM CDTSep 24, 2009 - 02:45 PM MDTSep 24, 2009 - 01:45 PM PDTSep 24, 2009 - 12:45 PM ADTSep 24, 2009 - 11:45 AM HDT
2009.09.24 2045 UTC
Wind from the N (360 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 10 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 79%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.72 in. Hg (1006 hPa)
Pressure tendency 0.05 inches (1.8 hPa) lower than three hours ago

[IvanSurvivor]

again, 1009 is way way way too high for anything to develop in this area this time of year

wake me up when there is a 1003mb pressure. I'll take a mild interest in the system then

I'll let you know when it's time to wakey, wakey! Just Kidding. I don't know anything about the science behind tropical weather and actually just found the buoy info today. I've experienced it many, many times here in the panhandle, but never taken the time to try and understand the ins and outs of a tropical system.

[Emmett_Brown]

I dont think we will be seeing development in the next 48 hours. Shear has increased quite a bit:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

Just 10 kts or less and decreasing in its path across the BoC by late tomorrow though. That's where we have to watch for possible development. Most likely, it would continue tracking westward into Mexico. Development chances aren't high, but one could argue that they're significantly higher than for that one area by the Cape Verde Islands that the NHC has circled. And this area of storms could possibly affect someone in the near future.

Wx, if development were to occur over the BOC, could the steering possibly take it toward the NE GOM? Here is the 12z GFS 500mb for 12z Monday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

[wxman57]

Wx, if development were to occur over the BOC, could the steering possibly take it toward the NE GOM? Here is the 12z GFS 500mb for 12z Monday:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

Probably not to the northeast. Most likely just west into Mexico.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jconsor]

The current system in the Bay of Campeche is heading west and most of the convection is already on the EPac side, so I would put development chances as an Atlantic tropical cyclone as very low. Shear is also expected to remain high for the next few days across the Caribbean.

We need to watch the Caribbean again beginning mid-late next week. Most of the models agree that an upper level high will set up over the western Caribbean. At the same time, a strong cold front will be pushing into the Florida Straits and the southeast Gulf of Mexico by mid-late next week, which could provide enhanced spin to get a tropical cyclone going. The 00Z ECMWF has a weak tropical cyclone forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by next Thu-Fri.

[Blown Away]

The current system in the Bay of Campeche is heading west and most of the convection is already on the EPac side, so I would put development chances as an Atlantic tropical cyclone as very low. Shear is also expected to remain high for the next few days across the Caribbean.

We need to watch the Caribbean again beginning mid-late next week. Most of the models agree that an upper level high will set up over the western Caribbean. At the same time, a strong cold front will be pushing into the Florida Straits and the southeast Gulf of Mexico by mid-late next week, which could provide enhanced spin to get a tropical cyclone going. The 00Z ECMWF has a weak tropical cyclone forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by next Thu-Fri.

Lots of showers down there. Any potential TC developing between Nicaragua and Jamica this time of the year gets my attention because it will be in the area of Hebert Box #2 for South Florida.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

[IvanSurvivor]

The current system in the Bay of Campeche is heading west and most of the convection is already on the EPac side, so I would put development chances as an Atlantic tropical cyclone as very low. Shear is also expected to remain high for the next few days across the Caribbean.

We need to watch the Caribbean again beginning mid-late next week. Most of the models agree that an upper level high will set up over the western Caribbean. At the same time, a strong cold front will be pushing into the Florida Straits and the southeast Gulf of Mexico by mid-late next week, which could provide enhanced spin to get a tropical cyclone going. The 00Z ECMWF has a weak tropical cyclone forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by next Thu-Fri.

Could the blob of convection just on the east side of the Leewards (that's been there a while) be part of that or is it something totally separate to watch for?

[IvanSurvivor]

Trying to learn how to read wind map...
Looking at the blob just east of the Lesser Antilles, could someone tell me what are the highest winds they see from that area. I went to the buoy info first then looked at the satellite wind map. There is a small area that looks 20-30 kts. Just wondering if I am looking at that correctly and what else I could learn from that type of map.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml

[Nederlander]

Lots of showers down there. Any potential TC developing between Nicaragua and Jamica this time of the year gets my attention because it will be in the area of Hebert Box #2 for South Florida.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

Correct me if I am wrong, but if I remember correctly, you are looking at the Hebert Box/Florida correlation incorrectly. It doesnt mean that a system passing through the Hebert Box is historically more likely to hit Florida. Rather it means that historically storms that have hit Florida have passed through a Hebert Box. Is this correct ?

[CourierPR]

The current system in the Bay of Campeche is heading west and most of the convection is already on the EPac side, so I would put development chances as an Atlantic tropical cyclone as very low. Shear is also expected to remain high for the next few days across the Caribbean.

We need to watch the Caribbean again beginning mid-late next week. Most of the models agree that an upper level high will set up over the western Caribbean. At the same time, a strong cold front will be pushing into the Florida Straits and the southeast Gulf of Mexico by mid-late next week, which could provide enhanced spin to get a tropical cyclone going. The 00Z ECMWF has a weak tropical cyclone forming between Nicaragua and Jamaica by next Thu-Fri.

This seems to be what the 384 hour GFS model, posted by Gatorcane in another thread, was latching onto days ago.

[tailgater]

Fairly sharp trough shown here, but as others have said, it should conitue generally westward.

[Sanibel]

The 2009 factor continues to stifle any development.