Strong Wave east of Windward islands

[Emmett_Brown]

Impressive satellite presentation, with lots of nice anticyclonic outflow. Any other year, this would be quite foreboding, but this year, it could poof at any moment. This will be a true watch and see situation.

[wxman57]

Not getting very excited because I don't want to be disappointed by shear. Lets see

How could you be disappointed by shear? You don't want it to develop, do you?

[HURAKAN]

Not getting very excited because I don't want to be disappointed by shear. Lets see

How could you be disappointed by shear? You don't want it to develop, do you?

I like fish. I would be happy with a season with lots of them.

[jinftl]

This must be a dream season for you.....just a few fish though.....not sure everyone shares such a sentiment.

Not getting very excited because I don't want to be disappointed by shear. Lets see

How could you be disappointed by shear? You don't want it to develop, do you?

I like fish. I would be happy with a season with lots of them.

[wxman57]

Not getting very excited because I don't want to be disappointed by shear. Lets see

How could you be disappointed by shear? You don't want it to develop, do you?

I like fish. I would be happy with a season with lots of them.

With a strong ridge building east of Florida to north of this disturbance, I wouldn't wish for development. It's probably not going to be a fish if it develops, and Florida is a prime target for October storms.

[cycloneye]

Impressive satellite presentation, with lots of nice anticyclonic outflow. Any other year, this would be quite foreboding, but this year, it could poof at any moment. This will be a true watch and see situation.

Invest worthy now?

[jinftl]

October storms that hit florida typically don't come from the east and southeast of us though....they usually are pulled up from the northwest caribbean via a trough....a la irene and wilma. Now the question is, could this end up in the nw caribbean.....that would be a potentially dangerous scenario given the incredible tchp in that region and the prospect of shear lowering.

With a strong ridge building east of Florida to north of this disturbance, I wouldn't wish for development. It's probably not going to be a fish if it develops, and Florida is a prime target for October storms.

[Blown Away]

Come on Wxman, you have been around here for a long time, most here would be lying if they did not want a named system to track. I think we can all agree we don't want death/destruction. Maybe you don't because it's part of your job, but I bet deep down you like to see Grace.

[cycloneye]

Changed the title to reflect the 8 PM TWO mention of location from land area now east of Windwards instead of Midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles.

[wxman57]

October storms that hit florida typically don't come from the east and southeast of us though....they usually are pulled up from the northwest caribbean via a trough....a la irene and wilma. Now the question is, could this end up in the nw caribbean.....that would be a potentially dangerous scenario given the incredible tchp in that region and the prospect of shear lowering.

http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/9631/october.gif

With a strong ridge building east of Florida to north of this disturbance, I wouldn't wish for development. It's probably not going to be a fish if it develops, and Florida is a prime target for October storms.

There should be a strong cold front entering the NW Gulf by next weekend, as this system could be reaching the NW Caribbean. That means a north or northeast turn IF it develops. It won't be able to move toward the NW or north-central Gulf. Of course, it could just track west into Nicaragua or Honduras, but it could be far enough north to get pulled north toward the southeast U.S.

[expat2carib]

October storms that hit florida typically don't come from the east and southeast of us though....they usually are pulled up from the northwest caribbean via a trough....a la irene and wilma. Now the question is, could this end up in the nw caribbean.....that would be a potentially dangerous scenario given the incredible tchp in that region and the prospect of shear lowering.

tchp ???

Trichoplein, keratin filament binding, also known as TCHP, is a human gene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TCHP

[wxman57]

tchp ???

Trichoplein, keratin filament binding, also known as TCHP, is a human gene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TCHP

Probably not a bunch of human genes in its path. I'd guess, oh, maybe tropical cyclone heat potential:

[jinftl]

Yes...the tropical cyclone heat potential off of cuba west to the yucatan and south to the cayman islands is particularly high this year......high octane fuel for a system that can tap into it (assuming the atmospheric conditions are not hostile as well).

tchp ???

Trichoplein, keratin filament binding, also known as TCHP, is a human gene.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TCHP

Probably not a bunch of human genes in its path. I'd guess, oh, maybe tropical cyclone heat potential:

[expat2carib]

Probably not a bunch of human genes in its path. I'd guess, oh, maybe tropical cyclone heat potential:

LOL

[wxman57]

That projected 500mb ridge developing from the NE Gulf, east to 50W by 120hrs (ECMWF) does bother me, as TCs like to develop south of such ridges. One good thing is that the projected 850mb wind flow across the Caribbean south of the ridge is in the 25-35 kt range. That may limit convergence once the system reaches the eastern Caribbean. And the ridge might be strong enough to keep this system farther south, far enough to push it into Central America should it develop.

[jinftl]

Latest discussion from NWS Miami mentions the ridge possibly breaking down in a week or so...

FOR NEXT WEEKEND THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE IN
AMPLIFYING THE ERN CONUS TROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...SENDING A FRONT
DOWN THROUGH SOUTH FL PERHAPS TOWARDS MONDAY. THIS IS FAR OUT AND
THERE IS TIME FOR MODEL FLIP FLOPS...AND GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN
VARIABILITY.

This system could be an interesting exercise in the significance of timing and location...

That projected 500mb ridge developing from the NE Gulf, east to 50W by 120hrs (ECMWF) does bother me, as TCs like to develop south of such ridges. One good thing is that the projected 850mb wind flow across the Caribbean south of the ridge is in the 25-35 kt range. That may limit convergence once the system reaches the eastern Caribbean. And the ridge might be strong enough to keep this system farther south, far enough to push it into Central America should it develop.

[Emmett_Brown]

Impressive satellite presentation, with lots of nice anticyclonic outflow. Any other year, this would be quite foreboding, but this year, it could poof at any moment. This will be a true watch and see situation.

Invest worthy now?

Sure, I think it is invest worthy. In fact, I have already declared it an invest at my house, but that is not as important as when NHC does

[hial2]

Come on Wxman, you have been around here for a long time, most here would be lying if they did not want a named system to track. I think we can all agree we don't want death/destruction. Maybe you don't because it's part of your job, but I bet deep down you like to see Grace.

Tracking a system that could possibly affect your area makes your senses come alive..sort of like looking forward to making love to a beautiful woman..the only problem is if she turns out a Katrina-type you're out of luck and more than likely out of a home..just like in real life.

[Derek Ortt]

none of the models show any development of this system. Not worried yet

[Blown Away]

Lots of deep convection and a nice cyclonic rotation on the IR, let's see if it persists.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html