2010 WPAC Season

[Typhoon10]

Both have gone, so will have to wait awhile again for the next one. I do think one will have to develop more in the east to gather sufficient strength

[StormingB81]

I wouldnt be suprised to see another 1 or 2 invest within the week with all those storms out there

[Chacor]

NWS Guam has been mentioning the models showing something beginning life south of Guam then moving into the Philippine Sea. Today's AFD from Guam notes a "weak disturbance":

FXPQ60 PGUM 010709
AFDPQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
509 PM CHST SUN AUG 1 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH
OF GUAM THIS EVENING. (snip)

.DISCUSSION...
BASED ON THE LATEST VISIBLE AND ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE HAS LIFTED NORTH OF 20N. THIS ALLOWS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA WEST OF THE
MARIANAS. UNDER THE SAME REASONING...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH HAS
ALSO BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF GUAM
ACROSS BOTH YAP AND PALAU TO JUST EAST OF MINDANAO. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON WINDS JUST WEST OF THE PHILIPPINES...IT IS
LOGICAL FOR THESE TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE TO EVENTUALLY PULL THE
MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA AS THEY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT MOST MODELS ARE
FORECASTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IF A MONSOON CIRCULATION
DID MATERIALIZE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...IT WILL LIKELY CREATE
CONVERGING EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS.

[StormingB81]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/t2kgraphsat.gif


Man I still do not know how to put images up but if someone can just WOW!!! 4 areas they are looking at..will they fizzle or with the WPAC explode?

[Typhoon10]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/t2kgraphsat.gif


Man I still do not know how to put images up but if someone can just WOW!!! 4 areas they are looking at..will they fizzle or with the WPAC explode?

For me, the ones near Palau and Marshall Islands are of most interest

[Typhoon10]

NRL showing 3 Invests and DIANMU, now its getting interesting!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

But we arent seeing much activity come into the SCS

[StormingB81]

I was talking about 90w earlier when i saw it popping up..it can become real interesting really quick

[Typhoon10]

And now everything goes quiet just as quickly, with just DIANMU heading upto Korea

[StormingB81]

You know looking at all the little spots starting to pop up and the 2 invest we had granted so far they were short lived but lookes like they are comming back I wonder if Dianmu woke up the WPAC..Guess we will have to just want and see. But for the first time this year I see storms in the WPAC that can have a potential.

[Typhoon10]

You know looking at all the little spots starting to pop up and the 2 invest we had granted so far they were short lived but lookes like they are comming back I wonder if Dianmu woke up the WPAC..Guess we will have to just want and see. But for the first time this year I see storms in the WPAC that can have a potential.

Where are you seeing these? Can you send the link and advise how I interpret the data?

[StormingB81]

I was just looking at the radar for the weather channel abnd putting okinawa japan then moving it to the ocean

[Chacor]

Let me start by saying simply looking at IR, visible or radar imagery of disturbances is nowhere near enough to know if anything has 'potential'. One has to factor in other things, like environmental conditions. Wind shear and shear tendencies; SSTs and OHC; presence of dry air; presence of a TUTT; presence of an anticyclone et cetera.

I know everyone's here to learn but let's not be misleading.

[StormingB81]

Let me start by saying simply looking at IR, visible or radar imagery of disturbances is nowhere near enough to know if anything has 'potential'. One has to factor in other things, like environmental conditions. Wind shear and shear tendencies; SSTs and OHC; presence of dry air; presence of a TUTT; presence of an anticyclone et cetera.

I know everyone's here to learn but let's not be misleading.

Sorry I was just saying on how for once it doesnt look like a sunny paceful day in the WPAC. like it has been for like ever. I need to find those maps then so I can be better at understanding it

[StormingB81]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... 2_full.gif

According to NOAA next week we can see a chance of tropical cyclone activity with favorable conditions

[KWT]

Still looks pretty slow in the WPAC, very little in the way of strong systems, the storms that have formed have all been fairly weak compared to what you'd have expected of the WPAC by now.

[Typhoon10]

Still looks pretty slow in the WPAC, very little in the way of strong systems, the storms that have formed have all been fairly weak compared to what you'd have expected of the WPAC by now.

As a whole in WPAC its been different this year. From what I understand Singapore has had more rain than average, CHACOR can confirm this. As said, am suprised by how few Storms we have had. On a whole, here in Hong Kong its been quite dry and very hot, yet twice had "Black Rain" which dumped more than 70cm of rain in a hour. Am aware El Nina is in effect.

Moscow is having a heatwave, China and India/Pakistan are having terrible monsoons and believe even the UK has had a fairly dry year with a housepipe ban in several areas.

Lets see what the rest of 2010 holds for us in WPAC

[Typhoon10]

I know some people have challenged HKO's computer prediction models, but they show 72hr from now a low to the east of Philippines

http://www.hko.gov.hk/nwp/nwpsfcpp72e.htm

[StormingB81]

They also have one headed toward Japan

[Typhoon10]

They also have one headed toward Japan

Yes, it maybe the same one, they now have the system placed towards Okinawa. But again, we should take HKO's predictions with a pinch of salt

[StormingB81]

like everything we just have to wait and see....