Tropical wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Brent]

Wow... is it July or September?!

[KWT]

Wow thats an *amazingly* busy for early July, does remind me a bit of early July 2005...

Anyway whats interesting is they've jumped straight into the 20% bracket which should really raise alarms for down the road. Probably means they aren't far off from giving it an invest though much depends on what 95/96L does really.

Why do I get the feeling 96L and this wave will be similar to Dennis/Emily combo from 2005...though hopefully not as strong?

[bvigal]

So wonder why both this area and the one off Bahamas was in TWO, but left off the 8pm map?

Ah-hah, they've updated it.

[cycloneye]

Amazing to see that.

[KWT]

It is, I suspect this one will probably end up being Colin down the line in the Caribbean. Interestingly though doesn't seem like the models are that keen on this system really...though I think this will slowly try and organise as it moves past the current jet axis and into the Caribbean Sea.

[KyleEverett]

The NHC says this wave is moving WNW, and the CMC was moving this wave towards New England. I think its too far north to be a Caribbean/Gulf storm.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Amazing to see that.

Looks like a traffic-jam has begun right now...

[bvigal]

Luis, where are we on MJO?

Hey, it's only July 4, for crying out loud! I'm not ready for this high anxiety to start so soon, it's a long way to the end of October!

[KWT]

The NHC says this wave is moving WNW, and the CMC was moving this wave towards New England. I think its too far north to be a Caribbean/Gulf storm.

Think the northern part of the wave isn;t the region to watch, its just being fired up by the shear from the looks of things and a very divergent upper region...

Still whenever you have convection present and holding you certainly need to watch it as well, if it does form further north then it'll probably head WNW into the E.Caribbean then curve up NW into a weakness the models are progging....if the southern end develops then a track maybe close to Dennis 05 would be possible.

[cycloneye]

Luis, where are we on MJO?

Hey, it's only July 4, for crying out loud! I'm not ready for this high anxiety to start so soon, it's a long way to the end of October!

Is favorable now for developments to take place.

[Cyclenall]

Wow, that is the most bullish and lengthy TWO I have seen in early July since probably 2005. Most of the %'s were a bit higher than I thought they were going to be. The only thing left is for Invest 97L to be activated.

[CrazyC83]

Either Invest 97L or 98L, depending on which is declared first.

[bob rulz]

I think this will be 97L and the one east of the Bahamas will be 98L. This one looks more organized at the moment.

Remember though that if the southern region is the one that develops then it will be moving into the Eastern Caribbean Graveyard that seems to stifle development, especially so early in the year. Dennis and Emily were more of an anomaly than a rule when it came to that region.

[cycloneye]

Martinique Radar

Shows plenty of squally weather getting closer to the Central and Northern Antilles.

[Weatherfreak000]

Agreed, looking strong tonight with 20% chance that's almost medium.

[Gustywind]

Brief passage of strong showers, and lightnings here. Let's wait and see, but seems that the night will be animate given the latest sat pic... All carib friend be safe, dry and vigilant

[RL3AO]

I left for the day on July 4th and came back to mid-August.

[HURAKAN]

850
ABNT20 KNHC 050539
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF MORGAN
CITY LOUISIANA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Gustywind]

Good news for us this morning as the main convective activity moves well northeast of the islands. Given Meteo-France overall activity has diminshed and a return in green alert is quite possible this afternoon. Whereas moderate showers and isolated cells of tstorms are highly possible this morning. Whe must continue to be vigilant as usual but hopefully we should not have much more from this active twave.