Is the 2010 season still on track towards 18+ or not?

[jinftl]

Good points and informative post as always...i am not sure we will reach 18 storms...it may come close....but given that we have had one cat 2 and a td already....what i meant when i said that i don't think the odds of 18 named storms is any less than it was on june 1....perhaps even higher, still doesn't let me go so far as to say that it is more likely than not. If the odds of 18 named systems was 25% on June 1, I would now say the odds of that now are 33% or so.

What makes a season memorable in terms of actual storm encounters can usually be narrowed down to 5 storms or less...even in the busiest of seasons. 2005 without Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma would be remembered as a season with alot of unmemorable storms.

Whilst stats aren't everything jinftl, I think the fact is we are now falling behind the curve of 16NS+ already, most seasons bar 1969 (which is a big outlier!) had 2-3+ storms by this point...

However on the flip side, 95L was probably close and TD2 actually did have TS winds but the presentation really was awful enough to make the NHC doubt the wind estimates so we could in thoery of also had 2-3NS by now.

I feel perfectly content with 16-18NS right now...to get 18+ you normally require July to chip in with 3-4 storms which doesn't appear likely to happen at this stage and really then requires a big ramp-up beyond what we normally see in a top 8 August-November period...

Worth noting though we are in La Nina, which does make a busy back end more than possible as well...

I suppose I'm pretty 50-50 about reaching 18 or above, its certainly possible, but no way IMO is it more likely then it would have been at the start of the season, I think odds of a massive season like that have slightly decreased with the combo of falling behind the curve of the top-8 and also the shear hanging just a little below average for the time of the year in the basin still.

[cycloneye]

IMO, if July goes blank, then the odds of having a hyperactive season go down a bit, even if August and September are big producers of named systems and ACE. October and November will have to have above normal activity to then get to the hyperactivity that the experts predicted in their May and June forecasts. Speaking of the experts,they may have to go down a little bit with their numbers in the August updates if July goes blank.

[KWT]

Well if July ends up with very little then anything above 18NS will be a huge ask and will require some help from the subtropics as well like we saw with 2005.

16-18NS is the range IMO still...

ps, by the way the pressure in the basin is lower then normal BUT nothing compared to what we saw for the first 10 days of July in 2005...not surprising given the TCs we had in the first 10 days of July.

[cycloneye]

24 more hours to vote in the poll for those who still have not done so.

[ConvergenceZone]

IMO, if July goes blank, then the odds of having a hyperactive season go down a bit, even if August and September are big producers of named systems and ACE. October and November will have to have above normal activity to then get to the hyperactivity that the experts predicted in their May and June forecasts. Speaking of the experts,they may have to go down a little bit with their numbers in the August updates if July goes blank.

Luis, perfectly stated. The way you stated it is the way that I wanted to state it in the other thread, but I don't have the gift of words that you have...
But yes, every week that goes by in July without any activity puts that much more pressure on October and November in order to nail some of those insane that were bring thrown at us before the season started.

Why are we talking about this now? Just for conversation, because there's nothing else in the tropics to talk about...

[cycloneye]

Only a few hours left (Until 2:17 PM EDT this afternoon) for those who still have not voted in the poll.

[Frank2]

Well if July ends up with very little then anything above 18NS will be a huge task and will require some help from the subtropics as well like we saw with 2005.

Yes, I agree - it'd be similar to Lance Armstrong winning the 2010 Tour de France after what happened yesterday (lol)!!!

Frank

P.S. Really, considering July 15 is just a few days away, and since it's been shown that most past seasons did begin to wind down after September 15, that means we'd only have 8 weeks of active season to see most of the "exceptionally above average" numbers that the NHC and others have suggested - as mentioned, [statistically] a hugh task.

Sometimes we tend to forget that the "heart" of hurricane season really is no longer than 6-8 weeks - sure, there's early May through late July, and late September through late October (November being exceptionally rare), but those are the periods where we might see something form - but then again we might not or even probably will not, so the "true" hurricane season is only that 6-8 week window from early August through mid and late September...

[Stormcenter]

The meat and potatoes of the season in my opinion is between August 15 and Sept. 15.

[KWT]

P.S. Really, considering July 15 is just a few days away, and since it's been shown that most past seasons did begin to wind down after September 15, that means we'd only have 8 weeks of active season to see most of the "exceptionally above average" numbers that the NHC and others have suggested - as mentioned, [statistically] a hugh task.

Sometimes we tend to forget that the "heart" of hurricane season really is no longer than 6-8 weeks - sure, there's early May through late July, and late September through late October (November being exceptionally rare), but those are the periods where we might see something form - but then again we might not or even probably will not, so the "true" hurricane season is only that 6-8 week window from early August through mid and late September...

Don't forget though Frank we have La Nina, really the peak of the season this year should go through towards the back end of October, conditions should be condusive really for a 10-12 week window to get whats required, I suspect 13-15NS is easily do able in that period, then maybe another 1-2 systems in November+December, therefore I think we stil lhave a good shot at being in the 16-18 range...

Now above that is indeed as I said looking an increasingly large task...BUT this season will almost certainly be a late ending season with the La Nina being being present.

ps, but yeah I went "no" on the vote for 18+...think its a big ask to go quite that high.

[hurricanehunter69]

Above normal sst's, below normal sea surface pressures, low shear, and a developing La nina all point toward a hyperactive season! In 2005, we had a bit of a lull in the first half of August. It is in this timeframe 2010 will have a chance to catch up...It just so happens 2010 had a lull in the fisrt half of July. While I'm not forecasting a season as hyper as 2005, I'm still very confident the numbers will exceed 18. I'm still going with my original 21/11/6 numbers. 2-3 by the end of July, 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September, 4-5 in October and 2-3 in Nov/Dec.

[cycloneye]

Only a few minutes left until 2:17 PM EDT to cast a vote.

[tolakram]

2005 had 28 storms. 28.

We're talking 18+ here and you are all saying that no way we get to 18 because we are not on the pace of 2005? Must be the new math.

[cycloneye]

Below is the final result of the poll.Thanks to all the peeps (96) that voted.

Code: Select all


Is the 2010 season still on track for 18+ named storms?
Poll ended at Mon Jul 12, 2010 2:17 pm
Yes   67%  [ 65 ] x
No   21%  [ 21 ]
Dont Know 10%  [ 10 ]
 
Total votes : 96


[Scorpion]

I don't think we'll get 18, but we will have much greater ACE than past years. The quality of the systems will be much better this year.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think it's a no-brainer that the numbers wont' be as high as 2005. That's pretty much a done deal, but the ones we do get could be pretty strong....

[JTD]

The meat and potatoes of the season in my opinion is between August 15 and Sept. 15.

Rita, Wilma and Mitch all came after 9/15, i.e., 3 of the strongest hurricanes ever.

[KWT]

I don't think we'll get 18, but we will have much greater ACE than past years. The quality of the systems will be much better this year.

Yeah I think the ACE has a decent shot at being the highest since 2005, I'm personally suspect something close to 1998/1999 this year in terms of ACE, maybe a touch higher.

[ronjon]

From Dr Masters Blog Today:

Summary of 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
Here are the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecasters:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

That's a lot of high powered computer models and scientists predicting a very active season ahead.

[Frank2]

...though last evening TWC couldn't resist and started comparing the "so far totals" with 2005, or 1/1/0 compared to 5/3/2...

I'd have to guess that the scientific community must be starting to wonder if their predictions will come to pass - true, we are in July which is by it's nature is usually quiet in this part of the world, but the truth is also in the totals and so far 1/1/0 represents an average season...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

I think when all is said and done it will be
closer to climatology. I just can't imagine
how anyone can predict a number when there
are so many things that have to take place
for it to pan out.

From Dr Masters Blog Today:

Summary of 2010 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts
Here are the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecasters:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

That's a lot of high powered computer models and scientists predicting a very active season ahead.