BOC system

[Nimbus]

There is a TUTT stretched south across Cuba into the Caribbean. Lots of shear blowing from NE to SW across Mexico on the western side of the TUTT. Most of the convection down near the Panama low appears to be headed for the EPAC at the moment. If the TUTT migrates far enough southwest it might pull some energy north. Up till now it has primarily just been climo driving the models that showed development.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Para



GFS Operational



UKMET



Euro



Nogaps

[Ivanhater]

06z GFS Para

[BigA]

Bit off topic, but what is the GFS para? is it the new GFS that is going to be used after July 27? Thanks much.

[Ivanhater]

NAM

[Ivanhater]

Bit off topic, but what is the GFS para? is it the new GFS that is going to be used after July 27? Thanks much.

They are running the parallel gfs along side the old gfs. The parallel version will become fully operational at the end of July.

[Wx_Warrior]

Now the 12z gfs para has a weak low in mexico....LOL

[KWT]

Models don't seem to be developing this region any further then it already is, hough we do probably have a weak low with some good convection down there, though you could probably say that for a good chunk of the year.

I'd be surprised if anything gets going but you never can be quite sure...

[Ivanhater]

[Wx_Warrior]

Totally agree....a 6z GFS para is nothing to get excited about. That's how boring it is now.

[ConvergenceZone]

We need to get SOMETHING going in the tropics by August 1st if we are still going to have a really active year. I know that we have August 15th to still have a semi-active year,
but for a really active year, we need something going by August 1st in my opinion.

[Ivanhater]

Exactly, at least the models are showing something. This is "talkin' tropics" anyway, so if anyone has something else to point out right now, I'm listening...

[KWT]

CZ, 1969, 2004, 1955, 1998, 1999, 1950, 1964 and others all suggests otherwise!

Decent convection there within the region the models develop the low but I suspect with the GFS we are just seeing the same old convective feedback issues occuring. I just don't feel quite right to totally dismiss this area during the hurricane season however...

[Wx_Warrior]

Not dismissing, but the 6z was totally, totally different that the 12z. I'm sure soon enough something will get everyone buzzing. IMO, I don't think this one is it.

EDIT: if the EURO says different, then I'm on board.

[KWT]

Models all do show the low that we all know is weakly down there and there is lots of convection down there but I think the fact only one model has really done anything with it recently is rather suggestive for its development chances.

[srainhoutx]

One thing I have noticed in the para GFS run is the amount of moisture and disturbed weather potrayed by that model for several day in the W GOM next week. It certainly appears the upper ridge may infact shift a bit E, leaving the 'door' open for areas W of LA.

[A1A]

The purple sages are blooming in Austin and that means rain in 10 days. It has to come from somewhere . . .

[floridasun78]

i do see few storm down sw carribbean but shear still high in area now

[KWT]

The shear actually isn't that bad down there right now, but I'm just not too convinced because the models very often overdo such disturbances down this region of the basin.

[ronjon]

12z GFS does bring a weak low that skirts the coast eventually into the BOC. Previous runs had it moving into the EPAC. Development looks unlikely but you never know.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010071512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation