Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[poof121]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&numframes=10

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes


whats going on here, there are west winds and a little rotation beginning?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

or here

NOLA long range http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes


seems like lots of inflow based on radar and satellite.

Looks like an outflow boundary on the last frame of the second satellite link you posted on the far north side of the convection. But there definitely seems to be something going on here.

[TexWx]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html

[poof121]

Pressure dropping, even at stations with dropping temperatures... Hmmmm....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=29.5N&lon1=87.5W&uom=E&dist=200&ot=A&time=1

[Portastorm]

Could be diurnal trend. Doesn't barometric pressure fall every afternoon as part of a cycle?

[poof121]

Could be diurnal trend. Doesn't barometric pressure fall every afternoon as part of a cycle?

The pressure falls because the temperature goes up. But, at Slidell, the temp dropped, and so did the pressure.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KASD.html

[Sanibel]

There's some convection in the Gulf off a lingering front.

[poof121]

This is probably what the models have been hinting at. Let's see if something can consolidate. It'll need to persist overnight, something similar happened yesterday, but that convection fizzled.

[Portastorm]

Could be diurnal trend. Doesn't barometric pressure fall every afternoon as part of a cycle?

The pressure falls because the temperature goes up. But, at Slidell, the temp dropped, and so did the pressure.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KASD.html

I'm not sure about that. The diurnal trends of barometric pressure are based on atmopsheric tides and not temperature. I have seen plenty of examples in Texas during winter where barometric pressure rises while temps fall due to high pressure ridging coming down from northern areas.

[poof121]

Could be diurnal trend. Doesn't barometric pressure fall every afternoon as part of a cycle?

The pressure falls because the temperature goes up. But, at Slidell, the temp dropped, and so did the pressure.

http://www.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KASD.html

I'm not sure about that. The diurnal trends of barometric pressure are based on atmopsheric tides and not temperature. I have seen plenty of examples in Texas during winter where barometric pressure rises while temps fall due to high pressure ridging coming down from northern areas.

Okay, I stand corrected.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure#Local_atmospheric_pressure_variation

[Portastorm]

Hey poof121, I'm really not trying to be difficult here! Like you, just trying to figure out what's going on in the Gulf.

Here's the latest surface analysis in the Gulf:

[poof121]

I know. You just taught me something.

[ColinDelia]

Here's another surface analysis if you like a bigger chart

[rockyman]

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SE SURFACE FLOW IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 96W-100W. A 1016 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. 10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF ALONG
THE COAST OF N FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 83W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N101W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...
AND OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH AND
CONVECTION TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[ronjon]

Convection is starting to get that look - something to keep a close eye on.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[flwxwatcher]

Interesting ...


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 2010

SYNOPSIS

AMPLIFYING UPPER ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN BRINGING ABOUT SOME LONG
OVERDUE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC CHANGES. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NE U.S. AND AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE CENTRAL U.S. COMBINING TO
FINALLY PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE SE U.S. THIS FRONT PROMISES TO AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY BRING A REDUCTION OF TSRA TO THE CWA DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK AS WELL AS LOWER DEWPOINTS. MEANWHILE... THE
REMNANTS OF T.D. NO. 5 WERE WEAKLY EVIDENT IN EC GA. THIS WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE PUSHED S-SW BACK INTO THE GULF DURING THE
MID AND LATER PART OF THE WEEK...AND COULD BE POISED TO BRING
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA BACK TO THE CWA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

[Flyinman]

One of our local met's mentioned last week we may have a Low moving in by Wednesday. Now we do not even have a chance of rain but a couple of front's are mentioned. Where is the area of disturbed weather predicted to move?

[srainhoutx]

[rockyman]

There's a tropical wave moving through the Bahamas...toward south Florida...I wonder if this wave could help trigger some development in the Gulf in a couple of days?

2pm Discussion:
A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 28N67W TO 19N73W MOVING
W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
24N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
67W-70W.

8pm Discussion:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N69W TO JUST W OF
HAITI NEAR 18N74W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO ABOUT
THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM
EARLIER TODAY. THIS WAVE IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 130
NM MAINLY E OF THE AXIS.

[KatDaddy]

The GOM looks interesting this evening. Great outflow over the NE GOM but will it go poof overnight.

[KatDaddy]

Nothing at the surface with W to WNW winds off the FLA Coast.