Another Strong Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 96L)

[Blown Away]

I have a bad feeling about this system, no science just a gut feeling. IMO, it's far enough away not to be impeded by Danielle but close enough where it may scoot under Danielle miss the CA weakness and move farther west.

[hurricaneCW]

Well the ridging will build in Danielle's wake so I don't think it will follow. I think this one may stay weak for several days and scoot to the west. Could be a big deal down the road.

[ColinDelia]

The northern one has a larger surface area for each value of vorticity but we'll just have to see what happens.
These things are difficult to model.

[KWT]

Its a tough call, I'd personally call this one a recurver as well but I'm no where near as confident as I was with Danielle to be honest...its just a little too early to have any faith in this solution, esp with a system that may not even develop yet...

The models seem to perfer the northern region then the southern region but as I said not sure conditions are relaly all that condusive for the northern part to develop so it may well be a sort of meet in the middle type solution at say 12-13N...which would be north of where Danielle started...

The models also suggest a decent weakness due north of the system between 48-72hrs which will lit it out.

I'd say 65% chance recurve, 35% threat down the road.

[hurricaneCW]

Again, it makes no sense to discuss track when it hasn't even formed and saying that it will or won't recurve is kind of foolish when it just emerged a day ago. We don't know what Danielle's going to do, how it will interact with it, if it will get ripped apart by Danielle, and how the pattern will ultimately set up.

[KWT]

No but as I said before HCW with Danielle you can generally get a pretty good feel for the set-up aloft, we know for example there has been significant troughing in the Atlantic. An upper ridge may well form further west but that shifts the troughing further east as the models are showing nicely.

As you say though we don't know what it'll do and I'm not all that confident about this as it may not even develop till further west, unlike with Danielle where it looked just about certain it'd develop...but if it were to develop east of say 35W then odds it recurves are rather high again, esp given the upper trough that is in the E.Atlantic soon. If it manages to not develop till west of there then things become more interesting

I personally suspect there is a risk this one gets sheared badly by 72-96hrs as Danielle turns more to the north whilst this one continues to get closer on the faster easterlies.

Honestly though I'm not sure about this one, thats why my confidence isn't higher on a recurve.

[Blown Away]

KWT, does this area have model support?

[drezee]

This thing is going to make a go at it. It has the leading tail and huge convective towers now.

[GCANE]

The latest models on this as a wave seem to indicate that shear will pickup in about 48 hrs.

GFS much more so than Euro.

[GCANE]

The latest Euro Op is showing a very weak and more westward moving system.

[GCANE]

48 to 60 hrs out, it looks like dry air could become a major problem as well.

[cycloneye]

The latest on test invest PGI-34L.

[cycloneye]

Thread is closed as is invest 96L. Go to Active Storms forum to continue the discussions about this system.