Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat? (Is Invest 97L)

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KWT
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#61 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:18 pm

Ivanhater wrote:The long range KWT is very interesting about possible track if we have a system like the Euro is advertising. Interesting the Euro has shown the tropical wave consistently moving into the Caribbean and coming in stronger each run. Will be interesting to see if the GFS advertises this wave stronger in the coming runs.

This is getting some buzz around the weather boards.


Yeah whilst 96L for now IMO does still need to be watched because its not out of the way yet and the Gulf needs to be watched as well, its this area that catches my attention, the Caribbean tends to be very favourable in La Ninas and if we get a system to develop out at say 55-60W then a landfall is just about certain somewhere even if there was strong troughing down the east coast still...

Long ole way to go though and needs more model support really.

ps, my punt was 5-10th September (well actually 6-9th really) for a Caribbean threat and that wave certainly wouldn't be far off that long range punt, though its the wave possibly behind that one which really may grab the headlines but a long ole way to go yet for sure!
Last edited by KWT on Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#62 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:18 pm

18z GFS is coming in stronger..develops Earl behind Danielle and has this wave moving west

108 hours

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#63 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:24 pm

Yep, too quickly it develops though, will just follow the other two out to sea I'd have thought given how close by it is...

A parade of storms all following the 60W exit...ala 1995!
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#64 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:25 pm

A little stronger, earlier on this GFS run
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#65 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:27 pm

138 hours

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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#66 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:34 pm

168 hours picking up the rear

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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#67 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:40 pm

228 hours..approaching the NE Caribbean

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#68 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:42 pm

We don't want the solution the 18z GFS shows because Danielle picks up Early far stronger as it recurves and the whole lot gets swept eastwards and clears out far quicker then in previous runs...it'd leave this one with a shot at getting past 60W and then we could need to really watch it...
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#69 Postby ColinDelia » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:45 pm

240 hours
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#70 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:47 pm

Gets picked up, but again that is looong range. That is "Fiona" off the East coast.

18z GFS goes nuts developing 2 more behind this one...

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#71 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 24, 2010 5:50 pm

Yeah at that range the GFS could be well off...

I'd just say if you put the GFS as far south as the ECM is with this wave you have a pretty nasty situation for the Caribbean Islands and possibly the east coast as well...

Long way to go but will be interesting to see if the 00z also develops this one again tomorrow.
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#72 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:26 pm

Model rundown

Euro (Eastern Caribbean)

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GFS (NE Islands)

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Nogaps (Between Africa and the Islands at 144 hours)

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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#73 Postby Macrocane » Tue Aug 24, 2010 6:57 pm

This run of the GFS is crazy it develops wave after wave after wave, if it verifies or not is not that important at the moment but the important thing is that it is predicting favorable conditions.
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#74 Postby Vortex » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:57 pm

Possible "fiona" currently a strong wave over Africa should hit the water late Wednesday/Thursday....

This is going to be some stretch were entering... :eek:
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Re:

#75 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 24, 2010 10:48 pm

The actual "Fiona" may end up developing in the GOM later this week.


Vortex wrote:Possible "fiona" currently a strong wave over Africa should hit the water late Wednesday/Thursday....

This is going to be some stretch were entering... :eek:
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#76 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:40 pm

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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#77 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 24, 2010 11:50 pm

96L does a number on the system behind it...sort of absorbs it on this run....Dee left the door open it seems....but again its long range and I would take the EURO over the GFS any day....
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#78 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:25 am

CMC 00z keeps fiona far south. looks to hit the water in the next 24 hours.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#79 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:26 am

Nogaps ooz...also west bound and pretty far south


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: Possible "Fiona" a future U.S/Island threat?

#80 Postby Vortex » Wed Aug 25, 2010 12:29 am

GFS 7 days westbound then interactions with earl and dani will determine how signifcant a threat from the islands west. IMO, this is the one to watch.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
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