Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Blown Away]

Where is the area that will move across the Atlantic that we should be watching for development?

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro once again starts to develop in the NW Caribbean. Also if developed, the pattern would suggest an open door into the Gulf

[Portastorm]

Correct me if I'm wrong but we've already had several fronts dip into the GOM so far this season.
As I stated before the fronts are only going to get stronger as we get closer to the Fall and Winter seasons.
They will come into play if and when this predicted system is in the area. I guess what I'm trying to say
is I have to see it to believe it. IMO

Um, I'm not aware of any cold fronts that have dipped into the Gulf the last few weeks, at least in the Western Gulf (areas west of 90). We've had a mild front or two which have amounted more to lower dew points but nothing like the true fronts which change the pattern for the season, lower dew points, and drop temps 10-15 degrees consistently.

So ... I will hold you to your prediction then that on or around September 25th, we will have a "stronger" front which will be a player on the board with this system (assuming it ever forms into what the models currently suggest). Fair enough?

[Tireman4]

Climo suggests September 25...Porta...now with this zonal/ridge flow, who knows...?

[Vortex]

I suspect in the next few days well start getting better consistency as far as an east or west gulf threat….GFS has been back and forth with a Texas to
Florida hit since last Friday…Surprising the LA-MS area hasn’t been thrown into the mix YET…maybe the 18Z

[cycloneye]

I changed the title to reflect what the models are showing that may occur next week east of the Windward islands

[ROCK]

The flopping as far as landfall is not that large really. The Gulf coast has consistently been the target. Many more runs though.

agreed....I think Brownsville to Miami...at this point....I would not go as far as say NGOM to EGOM is more at risk though....

See that Houston landfall on the 06 GFS?

yeah I saw it at 300+... 12z was FL..lets see what the 18z has here in a few......late night ahead folks as this will be the big one we all follow a lot closer IMO....

[Vortex]

00Z last night was SE Texas, 6Z Houston and 12Z Florida....should we play spin the bottle for the 18Z

[Vortex]

Fact:GFS has had development of this system on every single run for the last 19...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

[cycloneye]

For a second day in a row,the San Juan NWS makes a good discussion about next week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

THE TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST
CNTRL ATLC SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVR THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SVRL AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45W TO THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF 10N. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL TC DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE DISTURBANCE NEAR 45W AND
ANOTHER ONE EAST OF 20W. GFS AND SVRL GFES MEMBERS ARE VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DISTURBANCE INDICATING A TC MOVING SOUTH OF PR
AROUND THE 23RD. GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG TIMING
DIFFERENCES BUT SOME SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
SEPT AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC LOOK VERY FAVORABLE SO AM
EXPECTING SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HAD A SLOW
BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR SO ANTICIPATING WEATHER
ASSOCIATED TO THESE DISTURBANCES A DAY OR TWO THAN EARLIER
SUGGESTED BY MODELS. IN SUMMARY...SIG AMT UNCERTAINTY SEEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING BUT ANTICIPATING A WETTER
AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE AEW
NEAR THE AFRICAN COASTLINE BUT THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST EIGHT DAYS
FROM REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IF IT WERE TO REACH THIS FAR
WEST.

[srainhoutx]

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL SHOWING A VISITOR IN THE CARIBBEAN ON
DAY 10 (SAT 25TH). ECMWF & GFS SHOWING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AT THAT TIME (ECMWF A DESERT SW RIDGE & ERN
TROF...GFS AN ERN RIDGE AND WRN TROF).

Good to see HGX watching carefully.

[ConvergenceZone]

Correct me if I'm wrong but we've already had several fronts dip into the GOM so far this season.
As I stated before the fronts are only going to get stronger as we get closer to the Fall and Winter seasons.
They will come into play if and when this predicted system is in the area. I guess what I'm trying to say
is I have to see it to believe it. IMO

Fronts aren't going to make much of a difference if this gets into the carib, because then it would probably be too far south to be picked up and turned out to sea...

[Vortex]

With all the early attention this system is receiving noone should be caught off guard...

[Vortex]

T-1Hr till 18Z rolls

[FireBird]

Guys, this is why I just love Storm2K! I came to check out what's shaking, and I'm alerted immediately to the possibilities to my east. The data and info helps me to keep track, and to alert others as needed. I'll definitely be keeping a close eye on this. Keep up the good work!

[BigA]

HWRF (Julia's map) shows this loud and clear, approaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm in the 5 day timeframe.

[Vortex]

It's going to happen!

[Vortex]

The oceanic heat content over the NW Caribbean is very concerning. Given the very consistent(19+runs) of the GFS with the Caribbean storm of varying intensities but passing over this very high oceanic heat content in almost every run one has to wonder what will happen…Also, the long range upper-air pattern also looks very favorable. That’s a high octane and very dangerous set-up should this pan out…

[Vortex]

Those that remember the GFS nailed Danielle 10-14 days out…Once it locked in on forming Danielle it never backed down run after run after run…