NW Caribbean development Wednesday?

[floridasun78]

Btw, 1745 closeup shows nice vorticity developing with some cyclonic turning moving NNW near 10n/82w...this is exactly where CMC indicated we might see this take place...Given what I'm seeing presently the CMC might be on to something...Keep an eye on this Texas its got your name all over it...




http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

that link dont work

[BigA]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html

This should work. You can click animation and zoom in on the southern caribbean.

[ROCK]

I see it....also...will be watching that area...

man that area looks ripe....when I say ripe it looks like its got good rotation already....CMC shows the start of genisis around 48hr....Monday....

[Ivanhater]

This area does not have support like the later system in the NW Caribbean, but the CMC has been persistent.

[ROCK]

This area does not have support like the later system in the NW Caribbean, but the CMC has been persistent.

true...but the mighty NOGAPS was on it again in the 12z.....however slower and over Cuba at 180hr....run before that it was following the CMC to a tee...

[Dean4Storms]

Clearly can see some lower level vort down there. Going to need a good day or two of deep convection so if the CMC is to be verified we should see convection begin to grow over the next day or so.

[floridasun78]

it look like their spin moving north from panama i zoom using website post above

[Ivanhater]

This area does not have support like the later system in the NW Caribbean, but the CMC has been persistent.

true...but the mighty NOGAPS was on it again in the 12z.....however slower and over Cuba at 180hr....run before that it was following the CMC to a tee...

The Nogaps system at 180 hours is the other system later in the period. This system should be around 4 days away.

[srainhoutx]

We are already seeing the affects of a Kelvin Wave in the Western Basin. That wave should progress east as well. The area in the SW Caribbean that some are seeing may well be attributed to that wave IMO.

[ROCK]

This area does not have support like the later system in the NW Caribbean, but the CMC has been persistent.

true...but the mighty NOGAPS was on it again in the 12z.....however slower and over Cuba at 180hr....run before that it was following the CMC to a tee...

The Nogaps system at 180 hours is the other system later in the period. This system should be around 4 days away.

yeah I see it now...180hr over Cuba was from the a wave from the MDR...at low lat...

[cycloneye]

180hr over Cuba was from the a wave from the MDR...at low lat...

And that is pouch PGI46L.

[srainhoutx]

180hr over Cuba was from the a wave from the MDR...at low lat...

And that is pouch PGI46L.

Now you understand why I commented yesterday regarding 'what area' would be the 'one'. Clearly guidance is sniffing development in the Western Basin. Now we wait to see if it's PGI46L or some vort from the monsoonal trough.

[Ivanhater]

180hr over Cuba was from the a wave from the MDR...at low lat...

And that is pouch PGI46L.

Now you understand why I commented yesterday regarding 'what area' would be the 'one'. Clearly guidance is sniffing development in the Western Basin. Now we wait to see if it's PGI46L or some vort from the monsoonal trough.

Or both

[southerngale]

JB tweet earlier. lol

BigJoeBastardi: Gasp: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144h...%20http://ow.ly/1940Zq

[Steve]

EU jumps on that later system too. We could see multiple systems in the western Caribbean Sea and off the SE coast over the next few weeks. There's a shot at some earlier action, but the 15 day period starting next weekend looks to be prime for threats to these United States with pressures lowering down there. A month or two ago, I would have guessed that a greater threat from the WC would have happened in the first half of September. But the pattern has been slow transitioning to late summer. Although historically it's happened, it's not every year that we can get multiple US threats (potentially nasty ones at that) in the late September early October time period. I'd also like to add that the teleconnection to the typhoon in the WPAC is strong ridging in and around the SE US.

Here's the 12Z European thrown into the mix.

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... _loop.html

[srainhoutx]

HPC in Final Update:

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.

[Portastorm]

HPC in Final Update:

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.

Easy for HPC to say ... they don't live in south Texas!

Let's hope the CMC runs are worth ignoring.

[perk]

HPC in Final Update:

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.

Wow talking about disrespect for the CMC,we shall see.

[srainhoutx]

HPC in Final Update:

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.

Easy for HPC to say ... they don't live in south Texas!

Let's hope the CMC runs are worth ignoring.

lol, we'll see. Corpus Christi in afternoon AFD...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WED AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...AROUND A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE SERN
STATES. A WEAK UPPER LVL SHEAR AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND
MON-TUE WHILE A SFC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ENHANCING THE UPWARD VERT
MOTION TAPPING PWS 2.25". THUS EXPECT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THRU
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS INTO WED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT...HOWEVER
SELY SFC WINDS INCREASE AS TROUGH DVLPS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THUS
EXPECT PCPN TO BE MORE SCATTERED. WILL TAPER POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MID/UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY BACK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AD PWS DROP BELOW 2". ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN HINT ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE COULD MOVE INTO WRN GULF NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WAS BRIEFLY
DISCUSSED DURING THE MIDDAY NHC CONFERENCE CALL. CANADIAN APPEARS
TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECM/GFS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE. WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ATTM DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH MID WEEK
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE AREA...INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

[South Texas Storms]

im having trouble ignoring it. is anyone ignoring this besides the hpc?