2010 retired hurricanes

[Ad Novoxium]

My final list in both basins:

Alex:
Reasons for: Fairly high damage in Mexico, most of which was not agricultural. Moderate death toll.
Reasons against: There have been worse.
Chances: 80% (Personal opinion: retired)

Bonnie:
Reasons for: Hit land and scared people during the Deepwater Horizon spill.
Reasons against: Almost a complete non-issue otherwise.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Colin:
Reasons for: Virtually none.
Reasons against: No impact outside of a single death or two.
Chances: 2% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Danielle:
Reasons for: Powerful.
Reasons against: Minimal impact on land.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Earl:
Reasons for: Also powerful. Came close enough to several places to affect them.
Reasons against: Nearly all of the damage was on islands that were harder hit by Otto, meaning Earl became an afterthought. Damage itself may have been only about $44 million or so.
Chances: 10% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Fiona:
Reasons for: Caused some damage.
Reasons against: The effects were too minor to note.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Gaston:
Reasons for: None.
Reasons against: Gaston.
Chances: 0% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Hermine:
Reasons for: Fair damage.
Reasons against: The damage wasn't extreme, neither was the death toll.
Chances: 10% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Igor:
Reasons for: It caused significant damage in Canada.
Reasons against: It was nearly fully extratropical then, plus Canada is fickle with retirements.
Chances: 60% (Personal opinion: retired)

Julia:
Reasons for: It helped weaken Igor. Also the furthest east Category 4.
Reasons against: No effects on land except for Cape Verde.
Chances: 5% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Karl:
Reasons for: Heavy damage in a major city not known for major hurricane impacts as well as a moderate death toll.
Reasons against: Mexico is not known for retirements.
Chances: 95% (Personal opinion: retired)

Lisa:
Reasons for: Unusual path and history.
Reasons against: No impact.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Matthew:
Reasons for: High death toll and fairly high damage.
Reasons against: The damage may not be accurate yet.
Chances: 80% (Personal opinion: retired)

Nicole:
Reasons for: Heavy damage on Jamaica as well as a moderate death toll.
Reasons against: Jamaica's seen worse.
Chances: 50% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Otto:
Reasons for: Worst flooding in BVI history as well as compounded the damage Earl did.
Reasons against: It wasn't the worst, and the damage doesn't look that high on paper.
Chances: 45% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Paula:
Reasons for: Affected land.
Reasons against: Damage was minor.
Chances: 5% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Richard:
Reasons for: Hit Belize.
Reasons against: Belize has seen much worse, not to mention its damage was mostly agricultural.
Chances: 5% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Shary:
Reasons for: Out-of-nowhere Category 1.
Reasons against: It didn't do much at all.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Tomas:
Reasons for: Heavily hit St. Lucia and the death toll ranges from moderate to very high due to the cholera outbreak in Haiti.
Reasons against: St. Lucia and Haiti do not have good histories in retiring names.
Chances: 70% (Personal opinion: retired)

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Agatha:
Reasons for: Catastrophic damage and one of the highest death tolls in EPac history.
Reasons against: Virtually none.
Chances: 98% (Personal opinion: retired)

Blas:
Reasons for: None.
Reasons against: Did nothing.
Chances: 0% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Celia:
Reasons for: Strong hurricane and Cat. 5.
Reasons against: It did nothing otherwise.
Chances: 5% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Darby:
Reasons for: Earliest second major hurricane in EPac.
Reasons against: It also did nothing else.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Estelle:
Reasons for: None, really.
Reasons against: It, like most of the others, did nothing.
Chances: 0% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Frank:
Reasons for: Its precursor, in addition to Eight-E's precursor, caused heavy damage in Guatemala with a death toll over 100.
Reasons against: It didn't hit land as a tropical cyclone.
Chances: 30% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Georgette:
Reasons for: Hit land.
Reasons against: It did virtually nothing.
Chances: 3% (Personal opinion: not retired)

---------------------------------------------------
Retired Atl: Alex, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Tomas, possibly Nicole and Otto.
Retired EPac: Agatha, possibly Frank.

(Was done in a hurry, so I'll double check this eventually.)

[somethingfunny]

I'd take Alex, Igor, Karl and Tomas. And Agatha on the other side. But no others. Nicole would be a laughable retirement, Otto's a longshot, and Matthew was just a typical tropical storm despite the heavy rains.

[frigidice77]

Theres absolutely no reason not to retire matthew. Imo

[CrazyC83]

Here is my opinion:

Hurricane Alex

Case FOR retirement: Strongest June storm in decades, devastating flooding in northern Mexico with high damage and death tolls
Case AGAINST retirement: Mexico has been somewhat inconsistent in retirements
Chance of retirement: 80%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Bonnie

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Little damage, very weak storm
Chance of retirement: 2%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Colin

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Like Bonnie, was weak and barely impacted land at all
Chance of retirement: <2%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Danielle

Case FOR retirement: Intense storm
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Chance of retirement: <2%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Earl

Case FOR retirement: Intense storm, damage in numerous land areas
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage not severe anywhere despite its intensity
Chance of retirement: 15%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Fiona

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Barely impacted land at all
Chance of retirement: <2%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Gaston

Case FOR retirement: You're kidding right? If Gaston couldn't get retired in 2004, certainly not now!
Case AGAINST retirement: Pathetic storm, no land impact
Chance of retirement: <2% (should be 0% but the WMO has made strange decisions)
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Hermine

Case FOR retirement: Significant flooding and some wind damage in Texas
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage not catastrophic and much less than Dolly, which was not retired
Chance of retirement: 10%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Igor

Case FOR retirement: Very intense storm, severe damage in parts of Newfoundland and some damage in Bermuda
Case AGAINST retirement: Canada has not historically been known to retire names, although they did with Juan
Chance of retirement: 30%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Julia

Case FOR retirement: Intense storm in a rare location
Case AGAINST retirement: Only land impacted was Cape Verde and damage was minor there
Chance of retirement: 3%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Karl

Case FOR retirement: Most destructive storm of the season, devastated a major city
Case AGAINST retirement: Death toll not high for Mexican standards
Chance of retirement: 90%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Lisa

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Never impacted land
Chance of retirement: <2%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Matthew

Case FOR retirement: Deadliest storm of the season and highly destructive in Central America, second costliest TS in Atlantic basin history
Case AGAINST retirement: Tropical storms aren't often retired
Chance of retirement: 70%
Personal verdict:

Tropical Storm Nicole

Case FOR retirement: Did significant damage in Jamaica and some damage in Cuba and Florida
Case AGAINST retirement: Very weak and short-lived storm
Chance of retirement: 25%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Otto

Case FOR retirement: More damaging than Earl in the NE Caribbean
Case AGAINST retirement: Was in its formative stages when the damage was done
Chance of retirement: 30%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Paula

Case FOR retirement: Fairly potent storm in the NW Caribbean with land impacts
Case AGAINST retirement: Overall damage was not severe
Chance of retirement: 10%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Richard

Case FOR retirement: Direct hit on land as a hurricane
Case AGAINST retirement: Despite its look and intensity, damage was not significant
Chance of retirement: 15%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Shary

Case FOR retirement: Not really any
Case AGAINST retirement: Barely impacted land at all
Chance of retirement: 2%
Personal verdict:

Hurricane Tomas

Case FOR retirement: Severe damage in the Windward Islands, especially St. Lucia
Case AGAINST retirement: Damage in Haiti was less severe than feared, although they rarely retire names anyway
Chance of retirement: 70%
Personal verdict:

[neospaceblue]

For me I would go with Alex, Earl, Igor, Karl, Matthew and Tomas on the Atlantic side and Agatha and Megi on the Pacific side. For Earl, I would go 50/50. It did impact some of the Virgin Islands as an intensifying Category 3/4, but as was said in an above post, Otto did more damage and that probably won't even be considered for retirement. Matthew, I would put at 60%. An analog for the case of retirement would be Allison, which did less damage than Matthew did. However, storms like Alberto or Gordon in '94 or Emily '05 and Hanna '08 have caused much more devastation and they remain on the list to this day. Tomas, I would go with 70% chance, but I feel that Haiti might not even request retirement, since again, Gordon did more damage, yet we have seen it strike Florida in '00 and pass the Azores in '06. As for Megi: They retired Vamei in '01, JUST BECAUSE IT FORMED NEAR THE EQUATOR. Megi slammed into Luzon at 885 mb and was the third storm given a 125-kt wind by the JMA in recorded history and was the first 190-mph storm since Allen. If Vamei can be retired, then there should be no question on Megi.

Frank:
Reasons for: Its precursor, in addition to Eight-E's precursor, caused heavy damage in Guatemala with a death toll over 100.
Reasons against: It didn't hit land as a tropical cyclone.
Chances: 30% (Personal opinion: not retired)

Paul in ’82 was one of the deadliest EPAC storms and struck land as a tropical cyclone, but it wasn’t retired because it was a depression and hadn’t been named yet, so I couldn’t see them retiring Frank for something it did before even developing.

[CrazyC83]

As for replacement names, my suggestions:

Alex -> Armando
Karl -> Konrad
Matthew -> Merlin
Tomas -> Trey

Agatha -> Amy

[Ad Novoxium]

In addition to Megi, I don't think Fanapi is staying on the list either.

[frigidice77]

Alex-Anthony Karl-kenny matthew- michael Tomas- Tony Bonnie- Bonnie

[Macrocane]

Tomas, I would go with 70% chance, but I feel that Haiti might not even request retirement, since again, Gordon did more damage, yet we have seen it strike Florida in '00 and pass the Azores in '06.

Even if Haiti doesn't request Tomas retirement I think St. Lucia will, so it has more chances to be retired than Hanna or Gordon. As I said previously I think Alex, Karl and Tomas will be retired, for replacement names I would choose:

Alexander or Alejandro.
Kelvin or Konrad
Timothy or Toby

[HURAKAN]

Alex-Anthony Karl-kenny matthew- michael Tomas- Tony Bonnie- Bonnie

Bonnie made me laugh a little! lol

Michael is in the list that will be used in 2012 and was used back in 2000.

[neospaceblue]

Alex-Anthony Karl-kenny matthew- michael Tomas- Tony Bonnie- Bonnie

Uhh, Michael and Tony are scheduled for 2012.

As for replacements:

Agatha ==> Alyssa

Alex ==> Alfred
Igor ==> Irving
Karl ==> Kelvin
Matthew ==> Mort
Tomas ==> Tyrone

[Macrocane]

I would like Alana or Adriana to replace Agatha.

[frigidice77]

My bad never seen that named used. Its funny how both the names I thought of were in the same season. Alex-anthony karl-keisha, matthem, Marek, Tomas- Timothy

[HurrikaneBryce]

Alex- Alejandro
Igor- Ingram
Karl- Kemen
Matthew- Miguel
Thomas- Trevon

[Ad Novoxium]

I would like Alana or Adriana to replace Agatha.

I don't think they'd pick Adriana for a replacement: next year's names list starts with "Adrian". In addition, I don't think Alejandro is getting picked either: it's the Spanish long form of Alex.

[neospaceblue]

I would like Alana or Adriana to replace Agatha.

I don't think they'd pick Adriana for a replacement: next year's names list starts with "Adrian". In addition, I don't think Alejandro is getting picked either: it's the Spanish long form of Alex.

Well if they can replace Katrina with Katia, Rita with Rina and Stan with Sean, then they can sure make Alejandro a replacement for Alex.

EDIT: and not to mention this mess from List I:

FREDeric ==> Fabian ==> FRED

My bad never seen that named used. Its funny how both the names I thought of were in the same season. Alex-anthony karl-keisha, matthem, Marek, Tomas- Timothy

But Keisha's a girl's name...

[frigidice77]

alex-anthonykarl-kirk igor-irwin-matthew-madison-Tomas-Tado. Final list no error should be in here.

[frigidice77]

alex-anthonykarl-kirk igor-irwin-matthew-madison-Tomas-Tadeo. Final list no error should be in here.

[HURAKAN]

alex-anthonykarl-kirk igor-irwin-matthew-madison-Tomas-Tadeo. Final list no error should be in here.

LOL - Kirk replaced Keith in 2000

[Hurricanehink]

alex-anthonykarl-kirk igor-irwin-matthew-madison-Tomas-Tadeo. Final list no error should be in here.

LOL - Kirk replaced Keith in 2000

And Irwin is used in the EPAC