Disturbance in the western Caribbean (Is invest 98L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11153
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

Re: ATL: Disturbance in the west/central Caribbean

#61 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Just take a look at the 200mb chart on the GFS...The westerlies are screaming across the Gulf including S.Florida the entire time, leaving the door closed for the Gulf. The models have been showing this same scenario for well over a week. Nothing will get into the Gulf with those westerlies.

It may be Cane season is over for the U.S, and fall came early. Down right cold in Pensacola this morning, had to wear my winter gear for PT this morning. Always have to keep one eye open though.


Lows are in the 70s here in South FL, though not as hot as summer, still the SSTs are plenty warm. The Westerlies are screaming about the system would be a typical slow developing October system that slowly moves NNW into the NW Caribbean. We are talking about 10 days from now when it would be in the NW Caribbean, by then the westerlies may not be down into South FL or the Southern GOM. This is South Florida's hurricane season now, so we will watch closely. Wilma is just one example of what October systems can bring for us.


Not saying not to watch, but those are very persistent and strong westerlies and leads to a decreased chance of a hurricane hitting as opposed to average. We approached a record low in Pensacola this morning which shows how abnormal the westerlies are even over the NGOM...the strong westerlies are dipping way south over the Gulf. Great news for everyone and each day that passes in October leads to a better chance of no one getting hit.

If the GFS is to be believed (it has done great with the pattern change btw) it is over for S.Florida as well.


Edit:Just checked some locals in S.Florida and lows dip into the 50's this week.

22 Miles SSW Belle Glade Camp FLSkip to Detailed 7-Day Forecast
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59. North wind between 7 and 9 mph.
0 likes   
Michael

jconsor
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 547
Joined: Mon Jun 30, 2008 9:31 pm
Location: Jerusalem, Israel
Contact:

Re:

#62 Postby jconsor » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:10 pm

I wouldn't call this a model consensus - only the GFS has consistently depicted development. The UKMET is a little more robust this run, and it tends to underdo TC development beyond 3 days, so that's a good sign. However, the ECMWF, CMC and even UKMET don't even show a TD forming. My definition of TD on a global model is at least 2 closed isobars at 2 mb intervals within a 250 mi radius of the center persisting for at least 24 hours.

Also, the GFS ensemble has zero support for the development the GFS shows in the W. Caribbean next week. Instead the GFS ensemble suggests development would be favored in the Oct 17-21 timeframe, which makes sense given the evolving MJO pattern.

Vortex wrote:Probably a good chance this develops with the model consensus...Classic October development..Slow to start and remains over the western carribean for some time...THE GFS late in the period may be to strong with an ene/ne movement for mid-october...A NE movemnt while near the NW carribean and/or western Cuba looks more reasonable later next week based on climatology.....
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#63 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:16 pm

I'll wager a friendly bet we have a developing cyclone late this weekend :wink:
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7177
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re:

#64 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:49 pm

Vortex wrote:I'll wager a friendly bet we have a developing cyclone late this weekend :wink:


the loser gets crow on the barbie
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

Re: Re:

#65 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 3:57 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
Vortex wrote:I'll wager a friendly bet we have a developing cyclone late this weekend :wink:


the loser gets crow on the barbie



I've had my share whats a little more :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#66 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:02 pm

Disturbance south of DR continues to move wsw this afternoon...probably gets mentioned by NHC tomorrow...
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#67 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:02 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 30....
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#68 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 05, 2010 4:56 pm

NAM showing low pressure in the SW Carib at 84 hours:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#69 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:13 pm

18Z GFS H96 beginning to organize over the SW carribean N of panama...


H96


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#70 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:24 pm

H126 looks like it will be tapping into the EPAC as an additional energy source as well...


h126

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#71 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:29 pm

IMO, 20N/85W is an important benchmark in terms of any potential US threat...Given the pattern anything east of 20/85 will make it difficult for a US hit if the pattern verifies in 9-10 days...
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#72 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:30 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#73 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:33 pm

H180 looks further east this run probablly a central/east cuba hit and no threat to the US IMO...just a guess...
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#74 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:38 pm

H216...stronger heading for central cuba...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_216l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#75 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:39 pm

H240 misses the conection?..not much movement


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#76 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:40 pm

H264 still sitting there...gota love the GFS...figured this type of run was just a matter of time





http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#77 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:41 pm

H 288 still sitting S of western Cuba...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#78 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:43 pm

H336 gets pushed back towards the wsw...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#79 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:45 pm

H384 sitting over the NW carribean strengthening...

Big change from prior runs...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_384l.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
Vortex
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4644
Age: 53
Joined: Fri Aug 01, 2003 9:34 pm
Location: Hilton Head, SC

#80 Postby Vortex » Tue Oct 05, 2010 5:47 pm

Regarless this one looks to be with us for awhile....
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 78 guests