2011 WPAC Season

[StormingB81]

ECMWF could be hinting at somethign around the 8th of july...other then that looks like it is going to be a quite 4th of July..

[StormingB81]

Models hinting at something mid next week...gonna have to keep an eye on it

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[StormingB81]

and as i was doing more research I found this:

A Tropical Cyclone Formation is possible along the Philippine Sea east of Visayas or Luzon between July 05-10 [Tue-Sun].

[euro6208]

Back in January, I predicted 25/13/6 with 3 major landfalls including a category 5 landfall in philippines or taiwan. Now that July is here, I am upping my numbers to 30/15/8 due to la nina finally fading away. I now forecast 2 category 5 typhoon landfalls!!!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Back in January, I predicted 25/13/6 with 3 major landfalls including a category 5 landfall in philippines or taiwan. Now that July is here, I am upping my numbers to 30/15/8 due to la nina finally fading away. I now forecast 2 category 5 typhoon landfalls!!!

Overall numbers look interesting and I agree we could be looking at a number of major landfalls given the bulk of activity is expected to be in the west of the basin given we're La Nina +1 (season after a major La Nina event.) However cat. 5 landfalls are very rare and do not occur that often so you forecast of two events occurring is VERY bold!

[supercane]

HKO's summary of June tropical cyclones:


Tropical Storm Risk updates its seasonal forecast for the NW Pac, slightly higher than earlier numbers:
"TSR continues to anticipate the 2011 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see activity close to average... TSR's main predictor at this lead for overall activity is the forecast anomaly in August-September 2011 Nino 3.75 sea surface temperature (SST). We anticipate this will be 0.04 +/- 0.31 C cooler than normal." Annual (Jan-Dec 2011) forecast followed by 46-yr norm in parentheses, :
ACE: 294 +/- 84 (295 +/- 100)
Intense Typhoons: 8.4 +/- 2.4 (8.5 +/- 3.0)
Typhoons: 18.1 +/- 3.1 (16.4 +/- 3.8)
Tropical Storms: 28.3 +/- 4.0 (26.3 +/- 4.6)

[StormingB81]

ECMWF hinting t something east of Okinawa coming close around the 15th? Looks lie kmoving NW to head towards Mainland...any thoughts?

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 800!!!step

[euro6208]

euro develops 3 tropical cyclones in the latest run. one hitting taiwan (possibly invest 94w) as a weak tropical storm. another developing very far north in the seas south of japan reaching moderate tropical storm intensity and another developing east of taiwan.

[StormingB81]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... h_full.png

Graph shows a high chance of tropical cyclone chance from 6-12 June south of Okinawa and East of Tawain area..

[Typhoon Hunter]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Graph shows a high chance of tropical cyclone chance from 6-12 June south of Okinawa and East of Tawain area..

Chart looks totally the wrong way around to me for TC formation in Wpac. I think formation highly likely AFTER June 12th given what models are showing and the amount of shear out there.

Talking of models, latest 00z ECMWF run shows one of the most immense typhoons in terms of size I've ever seen! It's been there for 2 runs now so let's see if trend for formation continues!

[Infdidoll]

Talking of models, latest 00z ECMWF run shows one of the most immense typhoons in terms of size I've ever seen! It's been there for 2 runs now so let's see if trend for formation continues!

I spotted that, too! More than a bit scary to see a monster like that on the models. We're all in for a few interesting weeks of storm-watching! Have your bags packed.

[StormingB81]

Early models runs show that turns and looks like will make a C and not effect any land..if it turns into a monter lets all hope all happends

[StormingB81]

Well now it has straightened out def either way gonna have to watch it see if it becomes a monster

[euro6208]

if this turns out to be true then guam and the cnmi will get soak from this large monster

[StormingB81]

Soooo...look at this....if it stays true in okinawa we may have some fun around the 19th-20th!! Alls I have to say is WOW!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 800!!!step

[Typhoon Hunter]

Soooo...look at this....if it stays true in okinawa we may have some fun around the 19th-20th!! Alls I have to say is WOW!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 800!!!step

A bit too early to start hypothesizing about one tiny island in middle of vast W Pacific at least 12 days out. Looking at the bigger picture it's certainly a "wow" run and ECM been hinting at something developing out there for last 4 runs or so. This is one everyone from Japan to Luzon may have to watch in coming days, not just Okinawa.

[StormingB81]

I did put that on the 90W page..sorry for not putting it on here.

[euro6208]

Back in January, I predicted 25/13/6 with 3 major landfalls including a category 5 landfall in philippines or taiwan. Now that July is here, I am upping my numbers to 30/15/8 due to la nina finally fading away. I now forecast 2 category 5 typhoon landfalls!!!

Overall numbers look interesting and I agree we could be looking at a number of major landfalls given the bulk of activity is expected to be in the west of the basin given we're La Nina +1 (season after a major La Nina event.) However cat. 5 landfalls are very rare and do not occur that often so you forecast of two events occurring is VERY bold!

In the west pacific, nothing is impossible.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Back in January, I predicted 25/13/6 with 3 major landfalls including a category 5 landfall in philippines or taiwan. Now that July is here, I am upping my numbers to 30/15/8 due to la nina finally fading away. I now forecast 2 category 5 typhoon landfalls!!!

Overall numbers look interesting and I agree we could be looking at a number of major landfalls given the bulk of activity is expected to be in the west of the basin given we're La Nina +1 (season after a major La Nina event.) However cat. 5 landfalls are very rare and do not occur that often so you forecast of two events occurring is VERY bold!

In the west pacific, nothing is impossible.

I agree, the Wpac is always full of surprises. Do you have any particular reasoning behind prediction for 2 cat. 5 landfalls or is it just a hunch?

Latest ECMWF run shows an explosion of activity over the coming week. It develops 90W out near Wake Is. into a typhoon which interacts with another TC forming NW of Guam. Meanwhile lots of instability in the northern SCS could make things interesting here. I think there's a lot of uncertainty in any specifics so I think it will be hard to say where any of these storms could go just yet, should they form, however what is clear is the trend now for a serious uptick in activity!

[Chacor]

Serial w!shcaster. Enough said. Hunch? I think not.