Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 94L)

[WeatherGuesser]

Models want to strengthen it for the most part this run. Im still thinking it slams into CA, but 9 days out I dont have much evidence

It would have a very long ways to go to get to California.

[KWT]

A bit hard to ignore the big models developing the system in the same way and taking a similar track. More often then not these systems actually form in the EPAC but we are getting to the time of year where the solution the models are showing is very possible.

[floridasun78]

area sw carribbean drying up this morning it look better on sunday

[RL3AO]

Nothings going to happen til that shear goes away. Still at least 3 days from being interesting.

EDIT: The shear might cause bursts of convection because of UL divergence, but nothing at the surface will happen.

[dwsqos2]

Of course, that presupposes that it will ever become interesting. hehehe

[ronjon]

HPC this morning:

THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON A
CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING NORTH OF PANAMA WHICH SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG/NEAR THE 80TH MERIDIAN WITH TIME.
CONVECTIVE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE A
SLOW PROCESS CONSIDERING THE LARGE UPPER LOW RETROGRADING TO ITS
NORTHWEST...THE SLOW EXPANSION OF THE UPPER HIGH WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ANTICIPATED...AND ITS FAIRLY LARGE SIZE AS SHOWN
IN THE GUIDANCE.

[Dean4Storms]

The TUTT will give it a fit and slow development, once it moves out enough though the ventilation may aid it.

[cycloneye]

It has to sit in the Caribbean for a few days,because if it moves north before the jet lifts,it will be cut in pieces.

[Florida1118]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER AT SURFACE
...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TPW PRODUCT CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VALUES
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS REGION...EXPANDING INTO THE
CENTRAL BASIN. THE CONVERGENT TRADEWIND FLOW IN THIS REGION
FOCUSES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM NEAR 15N80W TO THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE COMBINED
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NE OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER A BROAD AREA THAT
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN N OF 12N BETWEEN 68W-83W...ALSO
INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA
...AND EASTERN CUBA. WITHIN THIS REGION OF CONVECTION...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 22N68W TO
17N72W. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THE
ACTIVITY IN THE SW BASIN WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS CYCLOGENESIS IN THE FORM OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER DEVELOPS IN THE 36 TO 72 HOUR WINDOW ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I for one sure hope this develops into something and makes its way towards the north central gulf coast area, although very doubtful it will happen. A little off topic but we are in a drought in a very bad way right now.

I think the folks in the Mississippi delta would argue with that right now considering they're dealing with record flooding.

Have to disagree with you on this. I live just south of Baton Rouge and no one around here is suffering from any flooding from the mississippi. Morgan City and other cities further south and west near the atchafalaya that were first predicted to have major flooding due to the opening of the morganza spillway have been spared and crest have consistently been lowered. So although the mississippi is at record levels not much flooding is occuring except in the lowlands and farmlands. But just as whatever damage occurs to the flooding the farmlands are just as devastated by the extreme drought we are in as well. Lafourche and assumption parish for one has thousands of acres of soybean and sugarcane fields that if we don't get at least 2 inches of rain within the next two weeks the farmers crop will be at a total loss for the year. Which will not affect the rivers one bit. Also by the time whatever, if anything does develop and moves this way, the rivers will have already crested and begin falling. They do not rely on irrigation systems here becasue normally we get plenty of rain. Right now we are 10 inches under normal for rainfall and entering our dry season months. So yes I can assure you people around here are praying for some good soaking rains.

[PTrackerLA]

I for one sure hope this develops into something and makes its way towards the north central gulf coast area, although very doubtful it will happen. A little off topic but we are in a drought in a very bad way right now.

I think the folks in the Mississippi delta would argue with that right now considering they're dealing with record flooding.

Have to disagree with you on this. I live just south of Baton Rouge and no one around here is suffering from any flooding from the mississippi. Morgan City and other cities further south and west near the atchafalaya that were first predicted to have major flooding due to the opening of the morganza spillway have been spared and crest have consistently been lowered. So although the mississippi is at record levels not much flooding is occuring except in the lowlands and farmlands. But just as whatever damage occurs to the flooding the farmlands are just as devastated by the extreme drought we are in as well. Lafourche and assumption parish for one has thousands of acres of soybean and sugarcane fields that if we don't get at least 2 inches of rain within the next two weeks the farmers crop will be at a total loss for the year. Which will not affect the rivers one bit. Also by the time whatever, if anything does develop and moves this way, the rivers will have already crested and begin falling. They do not rely on irrigation systems here becasue normally we get plenty of rain. Right now we are 10 inches under normal for rainfall and entering our dry season months. So yes I can assure you people around here are praying for some good soaking rains.

Amen to that, we desperately need rain around here and the situation is only worsening by the day. We're over 12" below for the year and this is on top of finishing last year around 10" below as well so this drought has been ongoing for some time. It's going to take a strong tropical disturbance/depression/tropical storm to make up for these deficits and reverse the drought. I don't think anyone around here would mind a few days of rain, as long as it's no TS Allison.

[flwxwatcher]

The 0Z GFS solution would put a big dent in the drought for South Florida if it verified.

URL=http://img814.imageshack.us/i/gfsslp240s.gif/][/URL]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[cycloneye]

A new low pressure (1008 mbs) is east of Nicaragua in the 12z surface chart.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[JonathanBelles]

Thats almost where the new ball of convection has erupted.

[HURAKAN]

Thats almost where the new ball of convection has erupted.

convergence has increased

[ROCK]

The 0z CMC shows a weaker solution than the the 12Z....if that second low does form to the NE whatever this is will follow it up and out of the carib.....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ROCK]

blasting shear all over the carib.....aint doing anything today....time for a beer and to remember the people in the armed forces...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Ivanhater]

Models are still having a hard time with development. Looking through the models, it seems this is based off movement. Models that hold it down in the SW Caribbean longer while the shear zone backs north, develops it more. If it takes off to the north faster, it gets sheared out to the NE. Regardless, models are showing very low pressures in the Western Caribbean for a while. Looks interesting down there.

[ROCK]

12z NOGAPS out 120hr.....a sit and spinner.....different than the 6z...the 6z had a similar solution as the 0z CMC where a second low forms and drags it out of the carib...IMO, this current scenario looks a little more realistic.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Ivanhater]

With pressures around 1007mb in the Western Caribbean and tropical waves moving in from the east, the pattern is there for potential development. Specific timing and movement will be hard to come by with the models right now.