So far...

[ConvergenceZone]

I think we will have about 4 more storms still this year. 1 more in September, 2 in October and 1 in November before the season comes to a close.....

[cycloneye]

I think we will have about 4 more storms still this year. 1 more in September, 2 in October and 1 in November before the season comes to a close.....

Even with La Nina now officially declared?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think we will have about 4 more storms still this year. 1 more in September, 2 in October and 1 in November before the season comes to a close.....

Even with La Nina now officially declared?

And actually that will bring us to the 'R' storm which is pretty impressive......
Are you saying you think there will be more activity?

[tolakram]

I think we will have about 4 more storms still this year. 1 more in September, 2 in October and 1 in November before the season comes to a close.....

So after a well above normal first half you think we will only see 4 more storms for the rest of the year? Anything can happen but in a La Nina fall?

[KWT]

You can probably double that number given the La nina set-up AND the fact that cutoff lows have had no problem developing in the NW Atlantic...numbers probably anywhere from 18-25...

[ConvergenceZone]

I should have been more specific sorry. What I meant is I predict 4 more HURRICANES this year. Sorry about that. But yea, we'll probably have a bunch more depressions or tropical storms.

[Hylian Auree]

But you mentioned "And actually that will bring us to the 'R' storm which is pretty impressive......" so you were talking about storms. It's all cool though, the season could very much just have had a remarkable jump-start and then die down, but with the emergence of the La Nina at this time of the year we could see the numbers going well over 20.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow: But you mentioned "And actually that will bring us to the 'R' storm which is pretty impressive......" so you were talking about storms. It's all cool though, the season could very much just have had a remarkable jump-start and then die down, but with the emergence of the La Nina at this time of the year we could see the numbers going well over 20.

Yea, you are right, it didn't make any sense, ...I had "hurricanes" on my brain, so I just added up 4 hurricanes without factoring in any depressions/storms....

Who knows what letter we'll get to, OR it could just all die down by the end of September. I remember seasons where people would think it would continue to be busy, only to see it mostly die by the end of September, with a couple of straglers in October. That can still happen. As many meteorologists will tell you, just because a season starts busy doesn't mean it will end busy.

[westwind]

I'm starting to think the ACE for this season may not ever reach the "above average" mark at this rate.

Isn't it above average at the moment? We currently have three ACE building systems in the Atlantic and we are only just reaching the peak of the season IMO this season will have above average ACE and maybe even go greek.

I meant when the season was over, and I was referring to all the weak storms so far. But I checked the criteria for an "above average" season for ACE (103) and the current ACE and if it only doubles (makes sense since half the season is climatologically over) it looks like that will be achieved.

Yeah I agree, for the number of TCs we have had this season the ACE is pitiful, but there seem to be more canes in the mix now than at the start so I think the ACE will more than double by the end of the season, or maybe we will just continue with the disappointing TSs just my opinion.

[Frank2]

We've been very fortunate that after 14 named systems only Irene has been a serious problem, and that was more due to inland flooding than anything that happened at landfall...

Irene was similar to Agnes in that it was a Category 1 at landfall but it was the inland flooding that was was the most deadly and destructive...

My guess is that in the post-analysis Irene might be downgraded to an extra-tropical storm north of the NC/VA border, since it suddenly lost the southern half of it's convection at that point and as some reporters mentioned, once the center passed their area the weather cleared and the temperature dropped, as if it had acquired a cold front - Wilma did something similar once it moved offshore Florida...

Even though La Nina is forecast to remain once that northern jet drops southward it becomes very difficult for anything tropical to survive north of 25N, so we'll see what happens...

My guess is that it's going to be a cold winter here in Florida - from what I've noticed first hand the squirrels have been unusually busy gathering berries these past few weeks - sometimes that's a sign...

Frank2

[HurrMark]

We've been very fortunate that after 14 named systems only Irene has been a serious problem, and that was more due to inland flooding than anything that happened at landfall...

I think we more lucky that since Ike...a total of 49 storms...we have had only one Cat-1 and a few weak TSs making landfall in the US (although as mentioned, Irene and Lee were big flood events). I don't think there has ever been a stretch like this in recorded history with as little impact to the US.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea with nate moving inland soon and Maria moving out to sea, looks like we might be in for a quite period....
It looks like my "1 additional storm in September prediction" might be accurate being that there are only a couple of weeks left in the month with nothing yet on the horizon....

[Florida1118]

Yea with nate moving inland soon and Maria moving out to sea, looks like we might be in for a quite period....
It looks like my "1 additional storm in September prediction" might be accurate being that there are only a couple of weeks left in the month with nothing yet on the horizon....

Dont doubt 2011, its has been full of pop ups...

[Frank2]

Yep, the GFS does look very quiet with perhaps something in the NW Caribbean by Day 10, but that's about it...

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php ... v=hide_bar

I still think back to the 1979 season and how it essentially ended after David and Frederic made landfall during the first week of September (with the exception of Henri later that month, which was a rare Gulf hurricane that never made landfall)...

P.S. Oops - sorry, Florida - guess you posted just before I posted (lol)...

Frank

[tolakram]

... Some posts have been deleted. ...

Keep this thread respectful and on topic. If you see a post that you think is offensive don't reply, report.

Thanks.