Developing Low -Heavy Rain/Gale Force Winds- Is invest 93L

dwsqos2 · #61 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:44 am

Well, it's Talking Tropics not Talking South Florida rain events, but carry on if you must.

#62 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:48 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Well, it's Talking Tropics not Talking South Florida rain events, but carry on if you must.

Thanks, we will carry on per your permission. I was over at Lauderdale by the Sea about an hour ago and the pier had some people on it fishing. Waves were as expected, heavy squalls recently as also reported by Vortex.

#63 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:48 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Well, it's Talking Tropics not Talking South Florida rain events, but carry on if you must.

Dude you have been hammering (season is over) since what july... We are discussing the same general topic which is in regards to the potential low and its affect in florida.

#64 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:52 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Well, it's Talking Tropics not Talking South Florida rain events, but carry on if you must.

Your usual irrevelavance deserves no comment.

#65 Postby **NDG** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 10:53 am

dwsqos2 wrote:Well, it's Talking Tropics not Talking South Florida rain events, but carry on if you must.

I don't see anything wrong, we are discussing this weather event as the topic says.

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:00 am

Ok folks,let's move on back to the topic on hand,thanks for your cooperation.

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:04 am

Probable recon for Monday!!

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT SAT 08 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCOPD)
VALID 09/1100Z to 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR SOUTH FL.

daisy32 · #68 Postby **daisy32** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:08 am

We haven't had any rain in south Tampa but the wind sure is whipping.

#69 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:11 am

no rain over on my side of the state but we've had some breaks in the overcast and surface heating which must be allowing for some better mixing as the winds have become increasingly gusty. st pete clearwater airport has gusted to 35mph in the past hour and we're getting frequent gusts into the 30mph range. otherwise, it's actually a pretty decent day here thus far.

#70 Postby **northjaxpro** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:28 am

For the time being, most of the heaviest rain is staying just south of the Jacksonville area. We are definitely getting stiff easterly winds sustained at 20-25 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph or so for now. The heavy rain will gradually move our way the rest of the day into this evening. I anticipate that Gale warnings may likely be posted along the coast north of Daytona to the SE GA coast sometime within the next 24 hours or so as the pressure gradient really tightens as the the Low pressure area continues to develops to the south.

WhirlWind · #71 Postby **WhirlWind** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 11:37 am

Cloudy on the west coast, some wind but no rain yet......

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 12:57 pm

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...ALL OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
TROUGH HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING GALE AREA
CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

YouTube · #73 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:12 pm

UKMET shows it:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.8N 79.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2011 29.8N 79.8W WEAK
00UTC 12.10.2011 30.8N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2011 32.2N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2011 33.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2011 35.7N 76.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2011 38.6N 76.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2011 43.1N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

#74 Postby **AJC3** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:33 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:UKMET shows it:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 29.8N 79.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.10.2011 29.8N 79.8W WEAK
00UTC 12.10.2011 30.8N 78.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.10.2011 32.2N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2011 33.4N 78.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2011 35.7N 76.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2011 38.6N 76.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2011 43.1N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

Interesting...it initializes and then tracks the secondary low, but not the primary low over the SE GOMEX.

#75 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:37 pm

hmmmm, any locals happen' to know Ft. Lauderdale high tide for this eve.? Might have to go on by Aruba's for a little desert and watch some nice breakers come up on the pier there!

#76 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 2:42 pm

chaser1 wrote:hmmmm, any locals happen' to know Ft. Lauderdale high tide for this eve.? Might have to go on by Aruba's for a little desert and watch some nice breakers come up on the pier there!

high tide 630-7pm, was over at the pier this morning and it was banging, winds have picked up a bit since then so i suspect there will be more action at thigh tide, pier was open this morning

floridasun78 · #77 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:40 pm

it look like storm surge alone se fl coast miami have wind upto 40mph last hour http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/mia ... iamibeach1

#78 Postby **AdamFirst** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:22 pm

Seems like a big dry slot affecting St. Lucie and Martin counties...not a lot of rain over the southern Treasure Coast. Wind sure is whipping out there. Power surged several times and there's debris in the roads around here.

Rainband · #79 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:23 pm

looks like the gfs losses the east battle. :roll:

Rainband · #80 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:36 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-avn.html circulation off southwest Florida.

Developing Low -Heavy Rain/Gale Force Winds- Is invest 93L

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miami weather repot it feel like ts here

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