LLC Developing just East of Belize?? (Is invest 94L)

[boca]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-vis.html

I think the low is up by the Isle of Pines

there are multiple vorts. the mean center is our best bet right now... still very broad.

I couldn't see it off the coast of Belize.

[cycloneye]

RAMSDIS has floater for Western Caribbean area.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is rather interesting..

[NDG]

The vorticity over the Island of Roatan is way smaller than the low pressure taking shape south of the Isle of Youth, near 20N & 84.5 W

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS is rather interesting..

Does the same thing as yesterday's Euro...stalls the low off the East coast of Florida then progress into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is rather interesting..

Does the same thing as yesterday's Euro...stalls the low off the East coast of Florida then progress into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.

yep but rather than keeping the shear axis over it. it develops a upper low nearly on top of it or just to the west. if something like that were to happen then we would have to watch it much more closely.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Duddy]

12z GFS is rather interesting..

Can someone sum up the 12Z GFS results? Or maybe post a link to an iPad friendly site that has the models?

[crownweather]

Isn't today the first day of the updated GFS model running with all of the new changes?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

[crownweather]

Isn't today the first day of the updated GFS model running with all of the new changes?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

[cycloneye]

Isn't today the first day of the updated GFS model running with all of the new changes?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

Yes Rob. Let's see how it performs from now going forward.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... hybrid.htm

[Aric Dunn]

Isn't today the first day of the updated GFS model running with all of the new changes?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I997 using Tapatalk 2

Yes Rob. Let's see how it performs from now going forward.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... hybrid.htm

well then thats possibly why there was a shift this run vs yesterdays.

[floridasun78]

you think area will get invest?

[Aric Dunn]

you think area will get invest?

I would imagine so. but you never know.

[Aric Dunn]

most of the models are pretty inline with something happening with this system. including the 12z nogaps. looks very similar to gfs

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[floridasun78]

i can see look like board low turning or anticyclone maybe forming over nw carribbean that could help area

[tailgater]

The vorticity over the Island of Roatan is way smaller than the low pressure taking shape south of the Isle of Youth, near 20N & 84.5 W

Smaller but it looks a lot tighter and possibly deeper, we do have a large broad area of LP but we need to watch this little vortex near the island of Roatan it's in favorable conditions.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS deepens the low to the east of Florida in about 96 hours in the face of 50 knots of wind at 200mb. I don't get how something could develop with upper-level conditions that unfavorable...

[Aric Dunn]

12Z GFS deepens the low to the east of Florida in about 96 hours in the face of 50 knots of wind at 200mb. I don't get how something could develop with upper-level conditions that unfavorable...

it does. but then after 96 hours the shear axis shifts.

[SouthDadeFish]

The shear axis does shift, but there won't be a low there in the first place with that kind of wind shear.... at least in my opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

The shear axis does shift, but there won't be a low there in the first place with that kind of wind shear.... at least in my opinion.

it looks lightly not tropical at first. so the surface low would be able to deepen.