Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro heading for SE florida. as a wave...


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Blown Away]

EURO seems to back off recurving and moving closer to to Florida. Curious if the system stays weak b/c of strong upper level winds or b/c these models keep driving this wave over Hispaniola. I'm leaning towards the upper level being more favorable just north of the Caribbean b/c previous EURO runs missed the big islands and developed this wave into a storm.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[floridasun78]

So Aric are you saying it's time for Florida mobile homeowners to buy insurance? Lot of people got caught back in 2004 and 2005, I think the insurance companies require you have coverage before a storm develops or they won't pay for damages.

here in south fl their not many company will gave insurance to mobile homeowners their trying close all mobile homepark here in dade their almost close my but it was stop in vote

[Blown Away]

18z GFS rakes all the big islands, would like to see the GFS/EURO miss these islands N or S to see if upper level winds will allow development. Nothing but wind and rain if the wave follows the track over the big islands.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 262352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N31W TO
10N32W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, given the weakning trend of this twave... we could edit the title to: Cape Verde wave . Just my two cents about this proposition .

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO
10N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

The predict team is analizing this wave as pouch 07L. This was last night's analysis. Michael, I modified the title to add the pouch and identify better this wave.

P07L
15N, 34W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Distinct pouch all 5 days. Track ends up over Hispaniola.

GFS:

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF. Pouch size and OW areal extent increases for a couple days as the pouch dips southward a little as it moves westward. Then, the size decreases with the later gain in latitude. Ends up just southeast of Hispaniola.

NOGAPS: While NOGAPS killed P07L at 84 hours yesterday, it gets P07L all the way to 120 hours, although the position is uncertain temporarily in today's 84-h forecast. The 120-h position is northeast of Hispaniola, after P07L crosses Puerto Rico.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2012/P07L.html

[Blown Away]

Very exciting name change, it should draw a larger audience!!

GFS/EURO still raking the big islands but generally bring this wave towards the islands and SE Florida. Gotta pay attention a few days of consistent model runs.

[Aric Dunn]

and the intermittent popcorn convection has begun. they should eventually increase in coverage over time as they moisten up the mid levels and push some of the sal back.

[cycloneye]

Here are NOGAPS / UKMET analysis of pouch.

[Aric Dunn]

no major changes in the 12z GFS

[Aric Dunn]

interesting nogaps.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

What's a high-amplitude wave?

[Chickenzilla]

I'd also like to know. Also, there is a typo in the thread title; it should be amplitude instead of amplitud.

[Nimbus]

We are talking about the area over near 30 W with a whole lot of real dry air between it and the Lesser Antilles aren't we?

Does seem to be some moisture being pulled north from the ITCZ ahead of the system ATM but usually these early high amplitude waves end up as just a ripple of Cirrus clouds by the time they get to 45W.

Probably take a couple waves to moisten the environment up before we see a long tracking Cape Verde storm.

Like any wave passing through this time of year it might find some moisture again in the western Caribbean or gulf, dry open waves don't usually get pulled north much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-wv.html

What am I missing Aric?

[Aric Dunn]

yeah we wont likely see any long tracks for a few more weeks.

[floridasun78]

why keep talk area if not become a system?

[Aric Dunn]

why keep talk area if not become a system?

because it may have a possibility to develop as it approaches the islands or in the western atlantic.

[floridasun78]

why keep talk area if not become a system?

because it may have a possibility to develop as it approaches the islands or in the western atlantic.

i was saying that because what i reading about dry air front of it