Strong wave emerging Africa (Is Invest 93L)

[Zanthe]

Could this be anything like TS Christine in '73, with how far east it develops? Christine offically developed over Africa.

[USTropics]

Could this be anything like TS Christine in '73, with how far east it develops? Christine offically developed over Africa.

I don't anticipate the NHC pulling the trigger on this easterly wave until they see how it reacts after emerging off of the coast of Africa. As of late, and with the recent introduction of the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, they tend to analyze trends over a 24-48 hour period (especially with the enhanced support of model runs and additional products that can be provided once it is deemed an invest) while still being able to bring the AOI to attention. I feel this more cautious manner the NHC has adopted is the reason we see less systems designated tropical depressions and the more common approach of upgrading from invest to tropical storm.

[bob rulz]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this as Code Red right off the coast if the convection holds like it has been, to be honest.

[somethingfunny]

Was anybody able to get the rest of the 0z GFS run? RaleighWX seems to have a glitch, I can only get it out to the 312 frame.

What a cliffhanger of a frame:



On the other hand, here's the 0z Euro:



This is strange for me. Usually, GFS is has an eastward bias and overdoes troughs, while ECMWF has the westward bias and overdoes ridges. Clearly, that doesn't apply here.

[Gustywind]

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Aug 8, 2012 5:06 am ET

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

AFRICA

- A strong tropical wave with a low-level circulation is over Africa and will emerge over the Atlantic in a couple days, and stands out as one which has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone

[Gustywind]

This discussion is by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

A Long Tracked Cape Verde Storm May Be In The Cards From Late This Week Through Next Week:

I am keeping close tabs on a tropical disturbance that is located over western Niger on the continent of Africa. The GFS model guidance, which has been doing a good job with sniffing out potential development areas so far this season, is insistent on developing this particular disturbance into a strong tropical cyclone by next weekend (August 18th & 19th). The GFS model forecasts this system to emerge off of the African coast and track right over the Cape Verde Islands by late this week and forecasts this system to track across the Atlantic Basin throughout next week.
Now, the European model guidance does not forecast any sort of development from this disturbance and keeps it an open tropical wave for the next 10 days that tracks just north of the Lesser Antilles next Wednesday. Additionally, the Canadian model guidance does not forecast any type of development either and it seems that the GFS model is showing this possibility.
I want to say that I am quite skeptical with any long range forecast from any model, so any particular details from any one model should be discounted. The trend in the model guidance is what we should concentrate on and what it’s showing is that the disturbance that tracks off of the African coast may be something that we’re going to have to really track, even if it does not develop right away. Regardless, there is plenty of time to track any potential systems that come off of Africa and I will keep you all updated.

[cycloneye]

Folks,look what TAFB has at 06z surface analysis.

[KWT]

06z GFS much weaker throughout most of the run, which is to be expected as it takes it further north to start with than previous runs. Does end up taking a track VERY close to the east coast.

Very similar to Earl from 2010, except weaker at the start.

ECM still further north.

I don't think right now its likely to be a threat to the US, looks like troughing is too strong on the models and this system is too far north to start with unless it stays weak.

[SFLcane]

06z GFS much weaker throughout most of the run, which is to be expected as it takes it further north to start with than previous runs. Does end up taking a track VERY close to the east coast.

Very similar to Earl from 2010, except weaker at the start.

ECM still further north.

I don't think right now its likely to be a threat to the US, looks like troughing is too strong on the models and this system is too far north to start with unless it stays weak.

This is correct at the lattiude its rollling of africa it does not bode well for any impacts on the US. GFS and European both have a trof along the southeast which more then likely implies the usual the past couple of seasons (a recurve.)

[tolakram]

copied visible loop

[KWT]

As someone else said if it holds that presentation it'll probably a code red and invested as soon as it hits the water. Certainly one of the more impressive inland waves I've seen in recent years.

[SFLcane]

If it developes even quicker then a recurve is almost certain in my view.

[hurricaneCW]

Can we at least get it to emerge first before everybody hops on the recurve bandwagon. Like gimme a break, do you know how easily things can change 10-14 days from now.

And most Cape Verde systems recurve anyway, but that shouldn't automatically be placed on every system coming off of Africa.

[Nightwatch]

Wow impressive system it is!

[blp]

06z GFS much weaker throughout most of the run, which is to be expected as it takes it further north to start with than previous runs. Does end up taking a track VERY close to the east coast.

Very similar to Earl from 2010, except weaker at the start.

ECM still further north.

I don't think right now its likely to be a threat to the US, looks like troughing is too strong on the models and this system is too far north to start with unless it stays weak.

This is correct at the lattiude its rollling of africa it does not bode well for any impacts on the US. GFS and European both have a trof along the southeast which more then likely implies the usual the past couple of seasons (a recurve.)

If it comes across at or above 15N (just north of Dakar) as the 6z GFS is showing it will be highly unlikely that it will impact the US, as you stated above. I could only find the 1893 Hurricane that affected Georga/South Carolina accomplishing such a feat.

6z GFS 48hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp16.png

1893 Hurricane
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Source:
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.html#

[Ptarmigan]

As someone else said if it holds that presentation it'll probably a code red and invested as soon as it hits the water. Certainly one of the more impressive inland waves I've seen in recent years.

Indeed. That tropical wave looks better than some tropical storms I have seen.

If that wave forms, it will be Gordon. I think this be our first major hurricane of the season if conditions are right.

[Bocadude85]

If it comes across at or above 15N (just north of Dakar) as the 6z GFS is showing it will be highly unlikely that it will impact the US, as you stated above. I could only find the 1893 Hurricane that affected Georga/South Carolina accomplishing such a feat.

6z GFS 48hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp16.png

1893 Hurricane
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Source:
http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.html#[/quote]

Hurricane Ike developed at 17.2N 37.0 W and made it all the way to Texas. We can guess all we want on the future track of this potential system but until we actually have a storm we wont know at what lat and long this develops.

[BigA]

The shallow and mid layer steering flow over west Africa and the far eastern Atlantic looks like there is a northerly (toward the south) component to it. This could make the system exit the coast a bit farther south than where it is now. Certainly, I don't think it will be exiting north of 16; this is exceedingly rare, and given it's position, movement, and steering it doesn't look like it will be getting to the northeast of Dakar in 36 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I believe the models are having this come off africa about 2 to 3 degrees too far north, this is probably going to come off between 11.5 and 13 N

[cycloneye]

92L/Pouch 12L is cleaning the road for 13L.