Tropical Wave (Pouch 12L) E Atlantic - (Is Invest 98L)

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM (Navy) does not develop this wave either.

So only the GFS is showing development of this African wave right now.

We will see what the Euro does with this when it runs in a couple of hours.

['CaneFreak]

I agree. The GFS sure did develop this thing pretty quickly after emerging off the African coast. I think something doesn't quite seem right about that but I defer to the folks that know a whole lot more about numerical models than myself. We'll see.

I'd say Masters needs to look at the GFS skill as of late before calling it a reliable model.

It has been developing several CV systems this month. Of course, none formed. The one that formed was NOT forecast to develop by the GFS

[Alyono]

You're wasting your time if you are looking at the EC in this type of setup

[cycloneye]

Pouch P12L introduced

We have now a new pouch that is what GFS develops.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P12L.html

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Ensembles are in line with operational although the track is not the same as operational is towards Hispanola and ensembles are north of Greater Antilles.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/rb-l.jpg

Looks pretty impressive

[NDG]

Dr Jeff Masters forgot to mention that it was not just the 06z GFS Run that showed development near the CV Islands by early next week, before the 06z run it was also the 00z run, the 18z rub, and yesterday's 12z run.

[TheStormExpert]

Dr Jeff Masters forgot to mention that it was not just the 06z GFS Run that showed development near the CV Islands by early next week, before the 06z run it was also the 00z run, the 18z rub, and yesterday's 12z run.

So 5 runs in a row now the GFS has been showing this development?

[cycloneye]

Zero development on 12z ECMWF.

[NDG]

Dr Jeff Masters forgot to mention that it was not just the 06z GFS Run that showed development near the CV Islands by early next week, before the 06z run it was also the 00z run, the 18z rub, and yesterday's 12z run.

So 5 runs in a row now the GFS has been showing this development?

Yes, at least 5 runs in a row.

[cycloneye]

Here is the view of Africa.

[ninel conde]

joe bastardi hasnt mentioned it but he is still harping on how dry the tropics are globally.

[SFLcane]

A bit to north in latitude for my liking.

Also take a look at this

[gatorcane]

Some colors showing up in the far Eastern Atlantic in this tropical cyclone formation graphic:

[floridasun78]

we need see wave look by next wed we have sal and shear look at too see sal drop and shear too that now all over tropical speicaly by carribbean

[cycloneye]

A bit to north in latitude for my liking.

Also take a look at this

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitEW.jpg

Is not that convection that you are looking at but the one more south behind. The pouch people just updated P12L.

P12L
10N, 1W
700 hPa


ECMWF: The hovmoller signal is quite distinct. However, tracking a pouch is more difficult. For the first couple days, I track a tiny OW max (one of many over west Africa). Upon reaching the Atlantic, P12L becomes difficult to track, with little to no OW max or trough in the immediate vicinity. About a day later, a circulation is definitely spinning off the African coast, in roughly the area where P12L should be, but it never has a clear center, and the fact that P12L weakens so much during the middle portion of the forecast would make for a few too many "guess" points to get to this circulation. I stop tracking at the coast, but keep in mind that ECMWF does attempt to spin up something off the coast not long thereafter.

GFS: Easily tracked pouch the entire 120 hours. P11L, which is west of P12L, weakens as P12L approaches it. OW increases as P12L moves off of Africa.

UKMET: While ECMWF is only hinting at starting to agree with the bullish GFS, UKMET has jumped on the bandwagon. (Interesting since UKMET had no positions at all for P12 in yesterday's 00Z forecast.) UKMET does weaken P12L a little as it leaves Africa, as well as on Day 5 over the central Atlantic, but otherwise, UKMET depicts a distinct pouch all 120 hours.

NAVGEM:

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -9.0 v700 48h
GFS -9.1 v700 120h
UKMET -9.8 v700 120h
NAVGEM ---- ---- ---h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P12L.html

[ozonepete]

Latest wide shot:

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Interesting! 12z has a hurricane hitting Islands

[TheStormExpert]

joe bastardi hasnt mentioned it but he is still harping on how dry the tropics are globally.

Joe B. seems to always overdue things. He's more for the entertainment of listening to.

[Fego]

flipped from New England to the US/Mexico Border

GFS it's making up its mind.