Tropical Wave in NW Caribbean/Yucatan (Is Invest 95L)

[beoumont]

... Can anyone recall and point out any other Swirlaroos that developed eventually.

Would Flora qualify as having developed from a swirlaroo?

Are you talking about Flora of 1963?

I don't think we'll ever know; as there were no satellites back then if I recall.

[Gustywind]

2 AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N34W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N35W TO 7N35W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG

[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 19N35W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N35W TO 10N36W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

This mornings update by the pouch group of 20L.

ECMWF: Large, distinct pouch in the analysis quickly dissipates in a day. By the way, a dry low to the west of P20L is depicted continuing to track westward.

GFS: Lasts for 36 hours. As in yesterday's forecast, there are hints of a weak pouch regenerating and lingering a bit longer, but it is weaker than yesterday and short-lived, so I don't track.

UKMET: Outlier! After 12 hours, the eastern edge of P22L regenerates a bit before weakening. A relatively large OW max then tracks to the southwest, regenerating again and lasting as a distinct pouch for the 72-120 hour period.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

[Gustywind]

Given the pouch group (funny term i love it ) looks like a very difficult trip for Pouch 20L with numerous "up and downs fuel" down the road... Is that the dry air and the SAL in vicinity? Any idea about that?

[USTropics]

... Can anyone recall and point out any other Swirlaroos that developed eventually.

Would Flora qualify as having developed from a swirlaroo?

Are you talking about Flora of 1963?

I don't think we'll ever know; as there were no satellites back then if I recall.

We had satellite images starting in 1960 with the launch of the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS), starting with TIROS-1 (A) launching in April of 1960. They were notorious for electrical or camera failure and had to be replaced yearly (the concept was to simply attach 2 television cameras. One with a wide-angle lens that could view an 800 mile swath of the earth at a time and the other had a 10x magnification. The satellite consisted of thrusts to decelerate the rpm from 136 to 12 when taking images and a 2-watt FM transmitter).



As for Flora, The system was first noted on TIROS satellite imagery in the tropical Atlantic southwest of the Cape Verde Islands on September 26th. The system grew in size on the 27th, before disappearing from the satellite's view over the next few days. However, the only image I could find was the one below, and it looks more like an out dated radar image and not from the TIROS satellite.

[USTropics]

OH yea, digging around in old articles has paid off:

"It seems possible that the original disturbance that eventually developed into Flora moved off the African coast on September 23, 1963. Later a TIROS VII photograph at 0942Z September 26 (Orbit 1464) showed a large cloud mass in the area between 10 and 15N and 35 and 40W. No additonal information was received until a KIM jet airliner bound from Lisbon, Portugal to Paramarbo, Surinam reported a disturbance area near 12.4N 47.2W at approximately 2230Z September 28."

referenced here: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/hurrica ... h81963.pdf

Judging by the area of of cloud mass, I think this could qualify as a Swirlaroo.

[Hurricaneman]

This area of low pressure on this wave could be a player if the models are even remotely correct, the 6zGFS shows a sharp wave heading towards the SE coast from this at day 16 but as its severely truncated it could be a tropical storm and as its day 16 this will probably not be the final track or even look of the system

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[Gustywind]

2 PM discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N35W TO 20N39W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND FOCUSED
IN THE VICINITY OF A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N35W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES FROM 11N-19N
BETWEEN 31W-40W. CONVECTION REMAINS LARGELY SUPPRESSED DUE TO
THE EXPANSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC.

[CrazyC83]

No model develops this, correct? So it is unlikely we will see 94L come out of this?

[cycloneye]

No model develops this, correct? So it is unlikely we will see 94L come out of this?

None develop. But it can clean the dry air for 93L.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N35W TO
THE LOW NEAR 12N37W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE TO HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 13N WHERE
CONVECTION IS BEING HINDERED. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 38W-41W.

[Gustywind]

2 AM discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N38W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 10N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND REMAINS WELL
DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N39W
THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N40W TO 10N40W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

Not a bright future according to todays update by the pouch group.

Story change. After weakens within a day, the remnant OW max moves southward and is soon depicted as a pouch again (via ITCZ excitation?). Interestingly, the models are in fairly good agreement with this new story.


ECMWF: Medium-sized pouch with dispersed OW quickly weakens to just and OW max losing latitude during the 24-36 hour period as P22L spins up to the east. By 48 hours, ECMWF hints that the P20L remnant causes a bit of ITCZ excitation, and a pouch is once again depicted. Lasts as a weak, westward-moving pouch for the rest of the 120-hour forecast.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF and GFS.

NAVGEM: (Not part of early consensus) Non-persisting outlier! Like the other models, NAVGEM dissipates P20L as a pouch within a day, and I stop tracking. NAVGEM also indicates regeneration to the south about a day later, but in NAVGEM's case, there are two pouches (not just one), with the eastern one having relatively high OW. However, as soon as they appear, they are absorbed by growing P22L to the east, so I don't track either of these temporary pouches.

HWRF-GEN: (Not part of early consensus) Similar to non-NAVGEM models. Eventual low-latitude regenerated P20L appears smaller and slower than in the other models, keeping it close to growing P22L to the east.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2013/P20L.html

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion. Not much changes for Pouch 20L. Whereas, given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, this tropical wave should bring showers and some isolated tstorms in Guadeloupe Saturday till Sunday.


TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
AN AXIS FROM 19N42W TO 12N43W AND MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS.
HOWEVER...METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DUST AND DRY
AIR SPREADING OVER THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N39W
TO 13N39W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS WAVE WAS RELOCATED AT
15/0000 UTC BASED ON LOW LEVEL WIND SIGNATURES. WAVE IS NOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

8 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N41W
TO 13N41W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

[Gustywind]

Even if this twave is not expected to especially be on the increase, it should bring some strong showers and even tstorms in Guadeloupe as the trend for a wet weather scenario is amplified by our latest weather forecast of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

[cycloneye]

I wonder if thIs pouch going to surprise by sneaking low and try to develop?