2013 TCR's

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

Well, let's hope they will bump Raymond up to a Cat 4

or stay as a -almost- Cat 4

I hope it would be revised to a Category 4 as well! If not, this will be the first year in the 21st century so far, whose strongest hurricane (both Atlantic and East Pacific) was below Category 4 strength. Also, it would be sad because it was so close, especially considering its <950 hPa pressure. The winds, if it is left as a Category 3, would be just 5 mph or less, shy of a Category 4! I'm waiting in excitement right now for Raymond.

I don't think that will happen- I'm sure Ray will get upgraded to a 4.

[Hurricane Jed]

TCR's out for Humberto, Karen, Lorena and Sonia.

[CrazyC83]

Reading through them now.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting historical note on Karen being one of the few Gulf storms to not make landfall (it dried itself out). Humberto peaked at 80 kt.

[hurricanes1234]

Humberto is confirmed!!!! 80 knots!!!

[Hurricane Jed]

1961's Inga,1980's Jeanne, 1982's Alberto and 1984's Edouard are a few Gulf storms that I can recall not making landfall.

[Hammy]

1961's Inga,1980's Jeanne, 1982's Alberto and 1984's Edouard are a few Gulf storms that I can recall not making landfall.

Henri in 1979 would be another example--it just meandered in the Bay of Campeche for several days, peaking at 75kts, before becoming entrained in a frontal system

[CrazyC83]

CPHC has their Henriette report out. 65 kt peak in CPHC territory; 90 kt (as of now) official peak. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/ ... _Final.pdf

[hurricanes1234]

Henriette's report is out for quite some time now on CPAC center.

[hurricanes1234]

Manuel and Raymond now out. Manuel's peak was 65 knots/983 mbar and Raymond never even became a Category 4. They actually raised the pressure to 951 mbar, and left it at 110 knots. So we waited to see a Category 3. Anyways, 2013 was a scarce year, so everything followed suit. No hurricanes below 950 hPa. I'm not insulting anyone, but simply stating how funny it was to have storms this weak (all above 950 mbar).

Personal opinion only that is subject to errors.

[CrazyC83]

Regarding Manuel, based on the structure initially, I think it should have been a hurricane on both landfalls. And Raymond perhaps even warranted 105 kt given the intensity later on.

[hurricanes1234]

The verdict remains that 2013 was a pathetic season, which is great when it comes to landfalls. No hurricanes above 110 knots? That is very rare and surprising indeed. Anyway, the less affected, the better.

The last ones I am waiting for are Gil and Henriette, but I won't expect any change in their peaks.

[CrazyC83]

The one case I could see on Raymond perhaps for a higher initially intensity was the pressure at the time of Recon was 987 yet winds still supported 75-80 kt. With that kind of P-W relationship, 951mb = about 120 kt. But no Dvorak data supported that high (they were clustered from 105 to 115 kt). At the time of Recon, the winds were slightly below Dvorak mean estimates (about 85 kt), but by then the storm looked to be undergoing structural changes.

Conclusion: Pick an intensity between 105 and 115, any of them would be supported. 110 kt seems most reasonable on a blend of all data, although a case could be made either way. As for the pressure, if 110 kt is kept, I would have set it at 958.

[hurricanes1234]

I am looking forward to seeing Gil and Henriette, but I doubt they will be changed the least bit, if anything, lowered. They were simply very small storms in open waters and Gil was looking like a weakening hurricane when it peaked at 75 knots. As for Henriette, I am looking forward to a 5 knot increase, but we thought Raymond would be upgraded and it wasn't (thinking about it now, it looked nothing like a Category 4). Also, Henriette doesn't have that Category 3 appearance when you look at it very closely. Time to look forward to the 2014 reports which will reflect how the 2014 season would be.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Henriette, Juliette, Jerry, and Melissa's TCRs are out; no major changes.

[Yellow Evan]

The verdict remains that 2013 was a pathetic season, which is great when it comes to landfalls. No hurricanes above 110 knots? That is very rare and surprising indeed. Anyway, the less affected, the better.

The last ones I am waiting for are Gil and Henriette, but I won't expect any change in their peaks.

Well, 2003 PHS was worse. It's strongest storm was 969 mbar IIRC (Nora).

Gil and Priscilla for the EPAC need to come out, but I doubt Ill see many changes. I wouldn't criticize the EPAC season, many unusual things did happen (first November Sinaloa landfall, latest BCP landfall). Two late-season TS's made landfall on BCP, in addition to two lands on Sinaloa. In addition, the destruction from Manuel was incredible, but sad.

[CrazyC83]

Ingrid and Manuel go to show it doesn't take an intense hurricane to cause extreme damage...

[hurricanes1234]

Juliette got raised to 55 knots!

The verdict remains that 2013 was a pathetic season, which is great when it comes to landfalls. No hurricanes above 110 knots? That is very rare and surprising indeed. Anyway, the less affected, the better.

The last ones I am waiting for are Gil and Henriette, but I won't expect any change in their peaks.

Well, 2003 PHS was worse. It's strongest storm was 969 mbar IIRC (Nora).

Gil and Priscilla for the EPAC need to come out, but I doubt Ill see many changes. I wouldn't criticize the EPAC season, many unusual things did happen (first November Sinaloa landfall, latest BCP landfall). Two late-season TS's made landfall on BCP, in addition to two lands on Sinaloa. In addition, the destruction from Manuel was incredible, but sad.

But 2003 had the 913 mbar Isabel in the Atlantic. This year, both the Atlantic and Pacific's strongest storm was above 950 mbar, something that hasn't occurred yet in the 21st century up until 2013.

[Hurricane Jed]

It was bound to happen at some point

[cycloneye]

Unnamed early December Subtropical Storm added

Yes,they officially have added that subtropical storm with peak at 55kts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152013_Unnamed.pdf