Northern Gulf

tropicwatch · #61 Postby **tropicwatch** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:28 pm

Observations within 250 miles of 28N 86.5W

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=28N&lon1=86.5W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=3

HurricaneDREW92 · #62 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:29 pm

ROCK wrote:nothing at the surface yet.....you would know if it did. it would bust out some -80C hot towers as it is sitting on one of the hottest parts of the basin...

What will DMAX do to the system, I wonder now though 8-)

On sat it appears somethings brewing :double:

#63 Postby **Kludge** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:36 pm

Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

#64 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:50 pm

Falling pressure at the buoys I posted 2 pages back. Worth keeping an eye on IMO.

HurricaneDREW92 · #65 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:51 pm

Kludge wrote:Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

Agreed. Model support?

#66 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:56 pm

NAM

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Kludge wrote:Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

Agreed. Model support?

Hurricaneman · #67 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 4:58 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Kludge wrote:Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

Agreed. Model support?

nope just the NAM, but this could be one of those systems that the Global Models have trouble sniffing out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

HurricaneDREW92 · #68 Postby **HurricaneDREW92** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:05 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote:
Kludge wrote:Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

Agreed. Model support?

nope just the NAM, but this could be one of those systems that the Global Models have trouble sniffing out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Could someone post the NAM, please?

underthwx · #69 Postby **underthwx** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:08 pm

Sort of the sa me area Alicia formed ?....Not a forecast...

#70 Postby **USTropics** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:14 pm

Could someone post the NAM, please?

48hrs, near the Texas coast.

convection is pretty stretched out with multiple low pressure areas:

Hurricane_Luis · #71 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:16 pm

HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Could someone post the NAM, please?

I couldn't find a specific image for the NAM, have a root around on this website.

EDIT: Found it;

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

TexWx · #72 Postby **TexWx** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:32 pm

May be nothing, but it's starting to get that "look."

Hurricaneman · #73 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:39 pm

Invest95L by 8pm possibly?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

pwrdog · #74 Postby **pwrdog** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:50 pm

There is some spin... Interesting.

Hurricane_Luis · #75 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 5:56 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Invest95L by 8pm possibly? (Added Disclaimer)

I agree to that. Image of future Invest 95L. Top right hand corner of the image.

#76 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:27 pm

Kludge wrote:Especially in the last few enhanced infrared frames this looks much more organized than 92L ever did.

Not really, 92L looked much better organized in the WCAR than this system looks.

#77 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 6:40 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 22 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

#78 Postby **Bailey1777** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:16 pm

gotten awfully quiet here......

#79 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:21 pm

Too bad no model runs when it isn't an Invest...

Sanibel · #80 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 22, 2013 7:24 pm

Yeah, if you've lived down here long enough you can see it in the clouds. It's been itching down here the last few days according to the clouds.

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