Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[hurricaneCW]

Each gfs run will be different but the main theme here is that it's showing a stronger, more potent system. It's way to early to speculate what its track will be and I know the gfs has a tendency to break down ridges way too quickly.

Also 90% of Cape Verde storms recurve before reaching the CONUS, which is why any Cape Verde system always starts out as a likely candidate to recurve OTS.

[SFLcane]

What happened to the ridge pattern that was to drive systems thru the Caribbean and SE U.S? Is there a trough in the Eastern CONUS?

Luis all this has been speculation as you know. In general a long wave position only holds for 7-10 days at a time. Have seen plenty of ridgeing around in july/aug to only flip to a trof pattern come the meat of the season. Timeing timeing but i woudn't hold my breath

[gatorcane]

What happened to the ridge pattern that was to drive systems thru the Caribbean and SE U.S? Is there a trough in the Eastern CONUS?

Well looks like there is no ridge at all and a large trough over the entire Western Atlantic. Here at 144 hours you see it and it (500MB flow) causes this system to slow down considerably and make a pronounced NW turn east of the Leewards:



The GFS is not too bad at predicting the steering at 144 hours so it makes me think there may be some kind of trough there. But as you get further out, who knows if the trough is replaced by more ridging. It's early to say if this will impact anybody or not.

[meriland23]

There are major inconsistencies in the track in only 6 hrs time.. goes to show they really do not have a grasp really at all on 300+ hrs out, which you would expect. But it seems very consistent that 25L looks to be a serious one (like CW said above). So this will definitely need to be watched closely, especially given the fact the GFS is only making this stronger every run. Might fishy fish, it might end up somewhere completely different. I think that is incredibly up in the air atm.

[Hurricaneman]

When it comes to cyclogenesis the GFS is pretty good but when it comes to steering patterns and ridge\trough positions the Euro is the way to go and I think this system is going to follow the Euro over the GFS based on their histories

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

There are major inconsistencies in the track in only 6 hrs time.. goes to show they really do not have a grasp really at all on 300+ hrs out, which you would expect. But it seems very consistent that 25L looks to be a serious one (like CW said above). So this will definitely need to be watched closely, especially given the fact the GFS is only making this stronger every run. Might fishy fish, it might end up somewhere completely different. I think that is incredibly up in the air atm.

Yeah I agree but note the big trough that would cause the system to turn NW before impacting the Leewards is being shown by the GFS at day 7, which is a timeframe the GFS is usually pretty good and sniffing out the long-wave pattern.

But generally yes...too early to say if this system will impact anybody or not.

[Fego]

This is much further south than last run, I would expect the end of this run to hit the NE coast, maybe NY/NJ area? IMO

Fish storm at 288hrs but looking at the last 4 runs the 18z run yesterday was similar to the 12z run today
the 0z run is up the eastern seaboard, so is the 6Z run so it looks like we have 2 camps, a threat to Bermuda and camp 2 is towards New England but as always I'm taking anything in truncation with a grain of salt so it bears watching

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Very interesting point. Any idea why the similitude between 00/12 and 06/18Z?

[SFLcane]

What happened to the ridge pattern that was to drive systems thru the Caribbean and SE U.S? Is there a trough in the Eastern CONUS?

Well looks like there is no ridge at all and a large trough over the entire Western Atlantic. Here at 144 hours you see it and it (500MB flow) causes this system to slow down considerably and make a pronounced NW turn east of the Leewards:



The GFS is not too bad at predicting the steering at 144 hours so it makes me think there may be some kind of trough there. But as you get further out, who knows if the trough is replaced by more ridging. It's early to say if this will impact anybody or not.

Yep..thats been around what 4-5 years now.

[Fego]

There are major inconsistencies in the track in only 6 hrs time.. goes to show they really do not have a grasp really at all on 300+ hrs out, which you would expect. But it seems very consistent that 25L looks to be a serious one (like CW said above). So this will definitely need to be watched closely, especially given the fact the GFS is only making this stronger every run. Might fishy fish, it might end up somewhere completely different. I think that is incredibly up in the air atm.

Yeah I agree but note the big trough that would cause the system to turn NW before impacting the Leewards is being shown by the GFS at day 7, which is a timeframe the GFS is usually pretty good and sniffing out the long-wave pattern.

But generally yes...too early to say if this system will impact anybody or not.

Are the GFS and the ECMWF showing the same big trough that cause the NW turn after 55W?

[hurricaneCW]

What happened to the ridge pattern that was to drive systems thru the Caribbean and SE U.S? Is there a trough in the Eastern CONUS?

Well looks like there is no ridge at all and a large trough over the entire Western Atlantic. Here at 144 hours you see it and it (500MB flow) causes this system to slow down considerably and make a pronounced NW turn east of the Leewards:



The GFS is not too bad at predicting the steering at 144 hours so it makes me think there may be some kind of trough there. But as you get further out, who knows if the trough is replaced by more ridging. It's early to say if this will impact anybody or not.

That actually shows pretty decent subtropical ridging extending throughout the Atlantic, but there's that weakness off the east coast which is just enough to turn the storm away. If the storm were to be located further south before it approached that weakness, then it could possibly make it all the way to the U.S instead of abruptly turning NW at 55W. So the things to pay attention to is how strong that weakness is and how far south the storm is located prior to approaching the weakness around 55W.

The 20/60 mark is something I'm paying close attention to and once the current gfs run showed it going to the north of that mark, I knew it would fish early.

[KWT]

It is true to say that there have been multiple cases where systems have ended up going further than expected, I think quite a few of the 2010-2011 storms ended up chugging further west than expected from similar developmental locations.

Pattern does suggest a recurve, BUT it wouldn't take very much at all to get a hit on the E.Caribbean from where the GFS has it, just slow the speed of that upper trough and slightly quicken up the system/slower development and you'd have a NE Caribbean hit.

FWIW the 12z GFS is nearly always too amplified with upper troughs past 120hrs, an observation which has brought many a heartache to British winter followers in the last 10 years or so!

[Alyono]

Canadian track looks bogus as it develops the system ahead of it. Causes the system to move far too far north far too early.

[cycloneye]

0% / 20%

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM WESTERN AFRICA TONIGHT
AND MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[gatorcane]

Shouldn't be long before we get an invest out of this area.

[gatorcane]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

Remember you are looking at model runs that are way out there in the long-range with systems that haven't even formed yet.

Also that trough may not be enough to protect the Caribbean islands.

[Kalrany]

it looks like thr tropics will get interesting but the east coast trough looks like it will protect us.

I really think the tropics are about to get intresting

Why was the first thing that came to mine was the curse "May you live in interesting times"? Joy...

[Fego]

Where is the yellow paint? Anyway, the important thing is that the wait and see process just begun.

[hurricaneCW]

It's usually all about timing as well as the amount of weakness that's present which varies day to day. I know it's supposed to be quite hot over the east the 1st week of September as the Euro showed which is indicative of ridging.

After going through Sandy and even Irene the year before that, I certainly wouldn't want another storm in the northeast/mid-atlantic so I hope it goes OTS but it'll still be nice having something to track finally.

And even if the storm doesn't make it to the U.S., the islands could still be at risk so a fish storm is far from certain.

[Riptide]

Serious "biz" tropical wave, here is a closer and more detailed view of the expansive circulation. 20% chance of formation within 5 days is somewhat conservative in my opinion.

[Sanibel]

This will either break the SAL barricade or fade like the others.


The season's flickering on in my opinion.