Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)

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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#61 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 03, 2013 6:59 pm

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#62 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 04, 2013 7:10 am

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#63 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:14 am

Could be a weak twist finally cooking up there. Not sure.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#64 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 04, 2013 1:51 pm

Well the wave axis has finally moved into the eastern BOC, looks pretty sharp and should have a day or two or maybe even three to develop.

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#65 Postby TexWx » Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:07 pm

The gulf is pretty active today.

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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#66 Postby tailgater » Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:30 pm

Look west or WNW of Merida. Nice twist showing up lets see if develops some convection tonite. Conditions seems pretty decent with a little westerly shear.
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Re:

#67 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:33 pm

TexWx wrote:The gulf is pretty active today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-animated.gif

I think it is due to the front that is draped across the GoM, S. FL, and the W. Atlantic.
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#68 Postby ROCK » Wed Sep 04, 2013 5:50 pm

I see the twist...1012 Low on the map right now....needs to sit and stew some....no model support i can find but its not unheard of for something to pop up!!
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Re: Tropical Wave in Yucatan / BOC: 20%-20%

#69 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:54 pm

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
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#70 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:37 pm

Seems to be some weak turning about 50 or so miles west of the Yucatan, though there is probably far too much shear to support development.
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SeGaBob

#71 Postby SeGaBob » Wed Sep 04, 2013 9:55 pm

I think the 20-20 chance of formation is about right considering how this season has been.
Maybe it can be another name achiever anyway...

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Re: Tropical Wave in BOC (Is Invest 99L)

#72 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2013 7:02 am

This area in now Invest 99L. Go to the Invest 99L discussion thread.
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