Disturbed weather in Yucatan,moves to SW GOM (Is Invest 95L)

[gatorcane]

There is certainly alot of juicy tropical moisture all across the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, and SW Gulf, and over Florida. My hunch is that something does try to spin up possibly starting this weekend or early next week. The GFS and ECMWF still show some broad low developing out of this and moving NE. I wonder if these models are downplaying things some and we get a more bonafied tropical system to develop out of this?



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[Blown Away]

The table seems set, but it's hard to go against the GFS/Euro and they both show a big braod wet mess moving generally NE and don't show a well developed system...

[wxman57]

I don't think this weak disturbance in the NW Caribbean will develop. It will likely move into Mexico in a few days. Way too much shear there now. But look toward the area from the NW Caribbean to east of the Bahamas by this weekend. Euro does develop a TS east of the Bahamas by Saturday, takes it NE and toward eastern Newfoundland by next Tuesday as an extratropical storm. However, the Euro continues to indicate moisture and lower pressure in the Gulf and NW Caribbean in its wake.

[underthwx]

I don't think this weak disturbance in the NW Caribbean will develop. It will likely move into Mexico in a few days. Way too much shear there now. But look toward the area from the NW Caribbean to east of the Bahamas by this weekend. Euro does develop a TS east of the Bahamas by Saturday, takes it NE and toward eastern Newfoundland by next Tuesday as an extratropical storm. However, the Euro continues to indicate moisture and lower pressure in the Gulf and NW Caribbean in its wake.

Meaning development possible in the Gulf next week?

[stormlover2013]

you can't trust a model 240 hrs out on where something might go but what you can trust is it showing something that could develop out in GOM

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: The table seems set, but it's hard to go against the GFS/Euro and they both show a big braod wet mess moving generally NE and don't show a well developed system...

the broad wet mess scenario seems more likely then the text book tropical system...sunny and dry south of Palm Beach Co for the weekend, big wet mess north of Palm Beach and points north..

[ronjon]

Latest 12z GFS model run looks like a sheared frontal mess in the NE GOM with two low pressure systems in 7 days.

[gatorcane]

Latest 12z GFS model run looks like a sheared frontal mess in the NE GOM with two low pressure systems in 7 days.

Yeah I saw that. That is quite a front! Looks more like something you would see in the late October or early November timeframe than September...

Season ending cold front I wonder (will this front usher in the westerlies for good across the GOM and Florida)?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[HurricaneBelle]

Latest 12z GFS model run looks like a sheared frontal mess in the NE GOM with two low pressure systems in 7 days.

Yeah I saw that. That is quite a front! Looks more like something you would see in the late October or early November timeframe than September...

Season ending cold front I wonder (will this front usher in the westerlies for good across the GOM and Florida)?

I can't remember a season-ending cold front in Florida in September in my 37 years living here.

[WPBWeather]

Latest 12z GFS model run looks like a sheared frontal mess in the NE GOM with two low pressure systems in 7 days.

Yeah I saw that. That is quite a front! Looks more like something you would see in the late October or early November timeframe than September...

Season ending cold front I wonder (will this front usher in the westerlies for good across the GOM and Florida)?

I can't remember a season-ending cold front in Florida in September in my 37 years living here.

You are quite correct. I have lived in FL longer than you and there is not a season ending front in sight for Sept.

[Dean4Storms]

Well that circulation in the NW Carib. Sea near the northern coast of Belize has as much organization at this point as 93L did when it was near that location. Need to watch this once it reaches the BOC.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: The table seems set, but it's hard to go against the GFS/Euro and they both show a big braod wet mess moving generally NE and don't show a well developed system...

the broad wet mess scenario seems more likely then the text book tropical system...sunny and dry south of Palm Beach Co for the weekend, big wet mess north of Palm Beach and points north..

It's from all that clean living for the points south of PB...

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow: The table seems set, but it's hard to go against the GFS/Euro and they both show a big braod wet mess moving generally NE and don't show a well developed system...

the broad wet mess scenario seems more likely then the text book tropical system...sunny and dry south of Palm Beach Co for the weekend, big wet mess north of Palm Beach and points north..

It's from all that clean living for the points south of PB...

haha..dade and broward county, the bastion of clean living, there is a good reason why the golfers choose your neck of the woods in which to reside....back to the weather, seems like everyone in central and sofla in for wet weather the next 7-10 days

[wxman57]

Well that circulation in the NW Carib. Sea near the northern coast of Belize has as much organization at this point as 93L did when it was near that location. Need to watch this once it reaches the BOC.

That's true, but conditions in its path are not nearly as favorable as they were for Ingrid. Lots of shear the next 2-3 days.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro takes vorticity into the BOC where a possible depression eventually forms and lingers around through day 10 while gradually getting stronger. It also develops a system off the east coast of Florida around the 26th. Man what is it with the BOC this year?

[Dean4Storms]

Well that circulation in the NW Carib. Sea near the northern coast of Belize has as much organization at this point as 93L did when it was near that location. Need to watch this once it reaches the BOC.

That's true, but conditions in its path are not nearly as favorable as they were for Ingrid. Lots of shear the next 2-3 days.

True, but you know the reputation of the BOC if it is sitting there for a few days, one little window of favorable conditions and boom. Might need to take into account upwelling at this point in the BOC, might have some effect.

[Stormcenter]

This afternoon's outlook from NWS New Orleans.

LONG TERM...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS REALLY VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST WEEK. WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY TRYING TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK AND LIKELY BEGIN
ALLOWING MORE OF THIS MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. EXPECTING POPS
TO PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE EACH DAY THIS WEEK WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND HIGHER AFTER THAT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AFTER MID WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY. MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL FEATURE WILL GET DRAWN
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THAT
THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES UP EVEN MORE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND WITH AT LEAST 50 PCT CHANCE ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIP WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2.5 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO THE COAST. WAITING FOR MORE RUN TO RUN MODEL
CONSISTENCY BEFORE PULLING RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO LOW ON SUNDAY. MAY
BE MORE OF A TIMING ISSUE.

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 161916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...



BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD...PERHAPS
DOUBLE BARRELED (BAROCLINIC NORTH/TROPICAL SOUTH) AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GOMEX LATE SAT/EARLY SUN...THEN LIFT THE FEATURE
OUT IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE ERN OR SERN GOMEX...AND OUT THRU
FL AND THE BAHAMAS AHEAD OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SCENARIO
LOOKS PRETTY COMPLEX ATTM AND BEING BEYOND DAY 5...UNCERTAINTY W/R/T
TIMING...INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF ANY LOW THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE AREA IS QUITE LARGE. BUT REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS FEATURE
DEVELOPS...IT APPEARS WE ARE HEADED TOWARD WETTER PERIOD SUN-TUE.



FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX/RADAR....SPRATT/SEDLOCK

[Sanibel]

Must be a 2013 hot spot trying to pump out another one.