2014 EPAC Season

[CrazyC83]

The one case against an extremely high storm number in the EPAC is the Atlantic waves. If dry air is a big problem, there may not be as many waves getting into the EPAC (but they would have a prime atmosphere, especially west of 100-105W). But if waves get going but fail to develop due to shear, then the numbers could be enormous in the EPAC in 2014.

[Kingarabian]

The one case against an extremely high storm number in the EPAC is the Atlantic waves. If dry air is a big problem, there may not be as many waves getting into the EPAC (but they would have a prime atmosphere, especially west of 100-105W). But if waves get going but fail to develop due to shear, then the numbers could be enormous in the EPAC in 2014.

Looking at the IOD phase, it appears to be that there will be a healthy amount of African Waves( TropicalAnalystwx13 ). Of course an El-Nino will shear off the MDR so those waves could make it to the EPAC and develop there.

[Ntxw]

There's another source for the EPAC during El Nino, monsoonal troughs coming north from Peru and Ecuador where it's typically dry as a bone. With MJO enhanced phases don't necessarily need the Atlantic wave train.

[Yellow Evan]

The one case against an extremely high storm number in the EPAC is the Atlantic waves. If dry air is a big problem, there may not be as many waves getting into the EPAC (but they would have a prime atmosphere, especially west of 100-105W). But if waves get going but fail to develop due to shear, then the numbers could be enormous in the EPAC in 2014.

I believe this hurt 1997, but the wave train is suppose to be good per TA13 this season, so IMO, the EPAC will get enough waves.

[Kingarabian]

The one case against an extremely high storm number in the EPAC is the Atlantic waves. If dry air is a big problem, there may not be as many waves getting into the EPAC (but they would have a prime atmosphere, especially west of 100-105W). But if waves get going but fail to develop due to shear, then the numbers could be enormous in the EPAC in 2014.

I believe this hurt 1997, but the wave train is suppose to be good per TA13 this season, so IMO, the EPAC will get enough waves.

Active wave train and monsoon trough... gonna be fun !

[Cyclenall]

I know it's probably extremely unlikely. A hurricane making landfall in Southern California is probably 1 in 100-500 year event but I'm trying to imagine the havoc it would cause if it did happen. You ought to see the "storm watch" coverage in LA over a quarter of an inch of rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

In contrast, there was a 4.7 quake this morning and it was only briefly mentioned for about 2 minutes on the news.

These get all dramatic over the tiniest bit of weather but the ground moving beneath their feet doesn't even get them out of bed.

That video made me LMAO!!! Just crazy.

There's another source for the EPAC during El Nino, monsoonal troughs coming north from Peru and Ecuador where it's typically dry as a bone. With MJO enhanced phases don't necessarily need the Atlantic wave train.

Is there a 3rd source? If not, then you need the 2 sources to get near record high amounts of TS's in the Epac. That what CrazyC83's main point was. If there is something to look forward to, its the early season trains and monsoonal flows that go nuts if my wish comes to fruition. Also, some very low latitude TC's crossing the basins and moving westwards extensive distances, those are amazing.

[Alyono]

The one case against an extremely high storm number in the EPAC is the Atlantic waves. If dry air is a big problem, there may not be as many waves getting into the EPAC (but they would have a prime atmosphere, especially west of 100-105W). But if waves get going but fail to develop due to shear, then the numbers could be enormous in the EPAC in 2014.

I believe this hurt 1997, but the wave train is suppose to be good per TA13 this season, so IMO, the EPAC will get enough waves.

except the meteorologists have been saying that the IOD phase is unfavorable, just as it was last year. If its the same as last year, get ready for weak waves once again

[Alyono]

Some additional reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Equatorial_mode

An Atlantic niño would result in the waves tracking farther south, giving a greater chance of moving into the Pacific. That said, I am not sure if we are in an Atl niño or are expected to be in one this year. I suspect we were not last year since the waves came off so far north

[Yellow Evan]

Some additional reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Equatorial_mode

An Atlantic niño would result in the waves tracking farther south, giving a greater chance of moving into the Pacific. That said, I am not sure if we are in an Atl niño or are expected to be in one this year. I suspect we were not last year since the waves came off so far north

Based on the wiki article, it seems to affect the Gulf of Guinea, which is an indicator on how strong the waves will be. I didn't think the waves were so bad last year (there were a lot of large systems for starters). Last year's problem was the waves got too far north. If I had to make a guess, given the chances in the ENSO, NAO, and AMO, it is probable that we are in an Atlantic nino. I've noticed that in El Nino season's (well the two I've monitored in real time)

Regarding IOD, here's the post I was talking about. viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116052&p=2375973&hilit=#p2375973 Is TA correct here?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

I know it's probably extremely unlikely. A hurricane making landfall in Southern California is probably 1 in 100-500 year event but I'm trying to imagine the havoc it would cause if it did happen. You ought to see the "storm watch" coverage in LA over a quarter of an inch of rain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

In contrast, there was a 4.7 quake this morning and it was only briefly mentioned for about 2 minutes on the news.

These get all dramatic over the tiniest bit of weather but the ground moving beneath their feet doesn't even get them out of bed.

That video made me LMAO!!! Just crazy.

There's another source for the EPAC during El Nino, monsoonal troughs coming north from Peru and Ecuador where it's typically dry as a bone. With MJO enhanced phases don't necessarily need the Atlantic wave train.

Is there a 3rd source? If not, then you need the 2 sources to get near record high amounts of TS's in the Epac. That what CrazyC83's main point was. If there is something to look forward to, its the early season trains and monsoonal flows that go nuts if my wish comes to fruition. Also, some very low latitude TC's crossing the basins and moving westwards extensive distances, those are amazing.

Outside of Konai low's in Hawaii and monsoonal system going of of Mexico (those are rare, and the latter even originates from Tropical Waves), there is no 3rd source.

Low latitude TC's tend to be fickle and small and weaken/intensify at odd times.

[Yellow Evan]

Some additional reading

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_Equatorial_mode

An Atlantic niño would result in the waves tracking farther south, giving a greater chance of moving into the Pacific. That said, I am not sure if we are in an Atl niño or are expected to be in one this year. I suspect we were not last year since the waves came off so far north

http://atlantic-nino.geo.uni-augsburg.de/

Gives some additional links.

Most recent Atlantic nino's were in winter 2009-10, not sure on effect of the EPAC. There was one in 2008, yet that had a few northerly tracks into BCP. There was one in winter 2003-04, again not sure on effect of the EPAC. It could explain 2001's activity, gving there was one that spring. Summer 1999 had one, even thought it was a quit season, it did a few long trackers. There was one in winter 1997-98, it could explain 1998 somewhat. Yet, there was one in 1996 and that had tons of landfalls. There was one in 1994-95, which seems odd. There was one in 1993, which could explain it's activity/pattern somewhat. There were ones in 1987 and 1984, and both had southerly tracking but intense storms. Still doesn't explain 1985's vivacity. However, there is some correlation between summer ATL nino's and EPAC tracks (whether it is classical 80's like or more post-1995 like). All things considered it seems that either an ATL nino or a regular El Nino leads to a more southerly season. Could not find as much correlation with Atlantic nina's (I'm not gonna go through that).


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Let's have a mini poll here to see when the first named storm (Amanda) forms. I say Amanda forms on May 20.

[Yellow Evan]

Let's have a mini poll here to see when the first named storm (Amanda) forms. I say Amanda forms on May 20.

El Nino seasons tend to be late activity starters. I'd say late May/early June, but could be later.

[Macrocane]

My numbers for the EPAC are: 20/10/5
I believe the first storm will develop in the last week of May.

[Yellow Evan]

Very reliable prediction (not really), but for entertainment/interest purposes, here is the first model storm from the 2014 PHS



From the CFS 998 hours out (expected to occur on May 23, 2014).

[supercane4867]

Very reliable prediction (not really), but for entertainment/interest purposes, here is the first model storm from the 2014 PHS
From the CFS 998 hours out (expected to occur on May 23, 2014).

Maybe not that far out according to CMC

[cycloneye]

We need the biggies GFS/ECMWF.

[supercane4867]

:uarrow: We need the biggies GFS/ECMWF.

CMC likes to do this every year, it's almost impossible to get a storm in April anyway

[Yellow Evan]

Very reliable prediction (not really), but for entertainment/interest purposes, here is the first model storm from the 2014 PHS
From the CFS 998 hours out (expected to occur on May 23, 2014).

Maybe not that far out according to CMC

It's the CMC.

April storms are quite rare. Only 1 on record (though I strongly suspect there are a few missing from the dataset). However, we supposedly have a strong MJO pulse and a WWB coming. It is too early to affect the basin IMO, though if it slows down as Blake suggested, maybe it'll be there in mid-May? Cause if MJO passes the basin prior to the second week of may, it may be a month before it could come back to the basin. Granted, we've seen 2 storms in May in each of the last 2 years, as well as in 1958, 1984, and 2007. I've noticed EPAC seasons are trending earlier and earlier due to climate change. In the dead era, years with no storm's in May occurred in 1995, 1999, 2009, and 2011. We had a nice 9 streak from 2000-09, but 2009 (yes an El Nino but a late activity starter) got it's first storm at the very end of June. Still, I would not bet on it forming.

CFS does show above average mostirue off the Central America coast. So, possible early season landfall? Way too soon to say.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

CMC first shows it forming on April 20. Well, April 19 local time. Yes, the 20th is Easter Sunday.



But, don't take this storm seriously. CMC is still in fantasy land for the umpteenth season.



GFS 240 out shows nothing except shear. As you would expect in April.