2014 hurricane season forecasts

[cycloneye]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.

For the North Atlantic basin what a negative AMO means?

[hcane27]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.

From the NOAA AOML web site ....

"Does the AMO influence the intensity or the frequency of hurricanes (which)?
The frequency of weak-category storms - tropical storms and weak hurricanes - is not much affected by the AMO. However, the number of weak storms that mature into major hurricanes is noticeably increased. Thus, the intensity is affected, but, clearly, the frequency of major hurricanes is also affected. In that sense, it is difficult to discriminate between frequency and intensity and the distinction becomes somewhat meaningless."

[Ntxw]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.

For the North Atlantic basin what a negative AMO means?

I have no idea in all honestly. I'm just reporting what the index says . Maybe tropicalanalystwx or something who knows can.

[Yellow Evan]

I thought AMO positive was good for the ATL and what caused the post-1995 active era. I could be wrong here though.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.

For the North Atlantic basin what a negative AMO means?

The AMO really just describes the SST configuration. A negative AMO is associated with cool tropical waters and warmer waters in the subtropics, especially off the Southeast. The first three months of 2014 have been a great example of a negative AMO. A positive AMO is correlated with above-average Atlantic hurricane seasons. It has been largely positive since 1995.

The AMO is heavily dependent on the NAO. When the NAO is positive like this year, a stronger Bermuda ridge cools the AMO (this year). When it's negative, a weaker ridge lowers trades and allows waters to warm (previous years).

We should see it go positive over the coming weeks as the NAO goes negative.

[cycloneye]

Time is moving fast and is reaching the Storm2k poll time. (April 1rst) You can continue to post here your thoughts on the 2014 season but also you can go to the S2k numbers poll to post what you think about how many in each category will form. (ACE optional)

[gigabite]

My number is 15/4/1. The new moon at aphelion is still running at the low end of its range which means that the there will be some atmospheric compression around the midsummer. The earth sun distance is smaller than average, Similar to 2009. Beefing up the earth's plasma shield and increasing the opportunity for high pressure. Jupiter will be at conjunction on July 24th this usually coincides with a Gulf rain event. There may also be an increased chance of tectonic activity typical of some astronomic cross vectoring about the same time. Key word: earthquake weather

[CrazyC83]

When was the last time there were consecutive seasons with no major hurricanes? If all the negatives of 2013 are still there (they seem to be) and we have a super-El Nino, I could see 2014 as the least active in at least the satellite era, if not the reconnaissance era.

[Hurricane Jed]

1913 and 1914. 100 years ago....

[gigabite]

When was the last time there were consecutive seasons with no major hurricanes? If all the negatives of 2013 are still there (they seem to be) and we have a super-El Nino, I could see 2014 as the least active in at least the satellite era, if not the reconnaissance era.

There is a atmospheric compression issue that is phasing in between now and 2016 which will shape the meteorological equator in a fashion that has not been seen in the modern era. A super-el nino may be a resultant as well as an increase in earthquake swarms.

As the range of the swing of the moon decreases the warm water will pile up at the equator and stress on the Clipperton fracture zone will heat up. (earthquake frequency increases as the moon crosses the equator)

[cycloneye]

This is a note concerning the start of the S2k numbers poll as I have some personal things to do that will not let me begin the poll in the morning or early afternoon of April 1rst. For sure sometime between 3 PM EDT and 5 PM EDT I will get things started so get ready

[Ntxw]

With March over (reanalysis of it is not over and yet available) but given the persistence of the warm W/NW North Atlantic and cooler Eastern/SE (horseshoe of cool from Greenland to the Equatorial Atlantic) it looks like we may see the negative AMO values continue for a third month. +AMO is the exact opposite where cooler waters is to the W/NW Atlantic and warm E/SE. The NAO has spent very little time negative and another stretch of +'s is coming. CFSv2 maintains this configuration throughout the rest of this year at different intensities. Just something to think about. How much is it worth? I'm not sure.





The closest years (or group) based on the configuration of SST's the first quarter of this year would be late 80s to early/mid 90s

[wxman57]

AMO had another negative reading at -0.020 however it was a little higher than last month. This would be back to back months.

For the North Atlantic basin what a negative AMO means?

AMO stands for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A positive AMO means that the Atlantic is warmer than normal. A negative AMO means the waters are cooler than normal. A cooler Atlantic means that there is less oceanic heat content available. In the past, there were an average of 2 major hurricanes per season with a -AMO and about 4 major hurricanes per season with a +AMO. Seasonal numbers of named storms aren't affected, generally.

The current warm cycle began in 1995 and is ongoing. The last warm AMO cycle was from 1926 through 1969. Even during warm cycles there will be seasons with water temperatures cooler than normal. Those seasons typically feature less intense hurricanes.

[Riptide]

With March over (reanalysis of it is not over and yet available) but given the persistence of the warm W/NW North Atlantic and cooler Eastern/SE (horseshoe of cool from Greenland to the Equatorial Atlantic) it looks like we may see the negative AMO values continue for a third month. +AMO is the exact opposite where cooler waters is to the W/NW Atlantic and warm E/SE. The NAO has spent very little time negative and another stretch of +'s is coming. CFSv2 maintains this configuration throughout the rest of this year at different intensities. Just something to think about. How much is it worth? I'm not sure.

The closest years (or group) based on the configuration of SST's the first quarter of this year would be late 80s to early/mid 90s

This period was marked by a quality over quantity pattern and observed two significant landfalls. Hurricane Hugo (1989) and Hurricane Bob (1991) with Hugo being one of the few Category 4 landfalling hurricanes of the 20th century. A rare event in retrospect.

[Ntxw]

For the third straight month the AMO had another negative reading. March came in at -0.058, stronger than Feb's -0.020. Atlantic sst configuration has not deviated from the horsehoe of cold to the east and warm tongue to the west thus its likely this month may record another negative reading as well.

The closest match I can find (feel free to add) with similar look and persistence to the latest sst's set up is 1994

[Ntxw]

To follow up on my post about 1994 and 2014 having the closest resemblance (not perfect but the best match I have found) regarding the overall Atlantic SST configuration From the start of the year to latest available date.

2014


1994


April looks like a lock to persist. We'll have to see if the coming months remains the same configurations. CFSv2 believes so but the further out you go the less skill the guidance has. The +NAO has a lot to say about it be it the chicken or the egg question. Regardless there is some negative NAO coming but the key is persistence to change the SST set up. Whether it is sustained or not is TBD.

[Ptarmigan]

AMO stands for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A positive AMO means that the Atlantic is warmer than normal. A negative AMO means the waters are cooler than normal. A cooler Atlantic means that there is less oceanic heat content available. In the past, there were an average of 2 major hurricanes per season with a -AMO and about 4 major hurricanes per season with a +AMO. Seasonal numbers of named storms aren't affected, generally.

The current warm cycle began in 1995 and is ongoing. The last warm AMO cycle was from 1926 through 1969. Even during warm cycles there will be seasons with water temperatures cooler than normal. Those seasons typically feature less intense hurricanes.

I have seen where AMO warms up during cool phase of AMO.

[Hurricaneman]

another thing that is happening is that the atlantic vertical as a whole is above normal and the MDR is creeping up to near normal levels, whether or not this is a pattern or not remains to be seen as if the instability is above normal even with the possible high shear below 20N from El Nino this could be bad a in if the northern part of tropical waves can form lows closer to land and possibly be a problem similar to 1991 when Bob formed from the northern part of a tropical wave and a frontal trough moving in tandem and theres always the extreme case in 1965 of when Betsy got north of 20N north of the Subtropical jet it went to town so that was probably a good example of vertical instability being high and leading to when it got north of 20N it exploded due to getting out of and going north of the Subtropical Jet caused by El Nino

so in closing the Vertical instability may need to be watched as we enter the hurricane season especially if something gets going north of 20N

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[Ntxw]

I'm still wondering about the Atlantic thermohaline, the event that the experts said was a precursor to last season's dud. I've looked at some links fellow members have shared but none really gives any indication on the current state.

[ninel conde]

right now im leaning toward 4/1/0. looks almost certain now for the umpteenth year in a row we will have a persistent nw flow for the east coast and gom negating the possibility of in close developments.