Development in SW GOM? (Is Invest 90L)

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:37 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected for the next five days.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

SeGaBob · #62 Postby **SeGaBob** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:48 pm

So does this thread stay open or does it get locked?

Also I just found this regarding model runs...

June 2, 1:30pm EDT - An error disabled all model runs from plotting until I woke up this morning. The 12z GFS will load by 2:15pm EDT, and all following model runs will plot. I apologize for the inconvenience. -Levi

#63 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:50 pm

SeGaBob wrote::uarrow: So does this thread stay open or does it get locked?

It will stay open to see if things change down the road.

blp · #64 Postby **blp** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 12:53 pm

The models have delayed development yet again and it makes sense to remove the % for development for now. I still think the area may develop something. It looks like chances are increasing on something getting going now in the NW Carribean versus the BOC which could be worse since I see better conditions down there.

petit_bois · #65 Postby **petit_bois** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:12 pm

If my math is right... development may be possible early next week in the GOM. Nothing major though.

blp · #66 Postby **blp** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 2:31 pm

Well the 12z Euro has the low again in the BOC with the moisture displaced over the Yucatan.

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 3:49 pm

Note=TD-TWO-E has formed in EPAC. Go here.

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 6:41 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

#69 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 7:20 pm

yet GFS says development in48-72 hours. Not sure 0 is the true development chance

probably closer to 30 percent through 5 days

TheStormExpert · #70 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:01 pm

TD Two-E is still expected to be just south of the coast of Mexico in 48hrs. On the E.Pac side. I'm starting wonder if the Euro was onto something? The GFS may be too fast and bullish with development.

#71 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:03 pm

that is the NHC forecast. I am not sure it is going to be offshore for as long as the EC is saying

TheStormExpert · #72 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 8:46 pm

Alyono wrote:that is the NHC forecast. I am not sure it is going to be offshore for as long as the EC is saying

So the NHC is leaning more towards the Euro with TD Two-E?

#73 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:52 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Alyono wrote:that is the NHC forecast. I am not sure it is going to be offshore for as long as the EC is saying

So the NHC is leaning more towards the Euro with TD Two-E?

They're siding with the GFS now. But they still have it slower.

#74 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 9:57 pm

It does seem to be moving faster than anticipated though... NHC's forecast for a Saturday landfall maybe too slow.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[td100]

floridasun78 · #75 Postby **floridasun78** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:07 pm

time will tell what will happen in gulf here in miami it been rainy all day

HurricaneTracker2031 · #76 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 10:11 pm

floridasun78 wrote:time will tell what will happen in gulf here in miami it been rainy all day

Yup. It has been raining hard from that area of disturbed weather in the Gulf. However, I don't think what is in the Gulf with develop. I think it might originate from Pacific whatever GFS is showing.

Read more at: http://goo.gl/5JuB9H

#77 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:08 pm

0Z GFS has development in the BOC within 48 hours

Hurricaneman · #78 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:14 pm

Alyono wrote:0Z GFS has development in the BOC within 48 hours

seems to come from the TD in the Epac and by 30 hrs crosses over and redevelops in the BOC, and something like that has happened one other time that I can think of but can't remember the year

#79 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:21 pm

No... it dissipates the EPAC system as it makes landfall and a separate low forms in the BOC

HurricaneTracker2031 · #80 Postby **HurricaneTracker2031** » Mon Jun 02, 2014 11:21 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:0Z GFS has development in the BOC within 48 hours

seems to come from the TD in the Epac and by 30 hrs crosses over and redevelops in the BOC, and something like that has happened one other time that I can think of but can't remember the year

Thats what I suggested in my blog post.

Good Thinking. GFS now shows development 18Z and even faster development in 00z.

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