Area of Disturbed Weather Near Panama

[hurricanes1234]

Is there another area from this forecast to move into the EPAC?

[wxman57]

GFS is giving up on it or pushing it back to after next week now - a clear sign it's not going to develop. Also, the GFS 500mb pattern is still way different from EC & CMC for next week. It's clueless after 4-5 days.

[NDG]

There are many people that owe King Euro an apology

[Dean4Storms]

The GFS is lost beyond 5 days, even its ensemble members are lost.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the extreme southwestern
Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
The low is moving inland over Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and
development is not expected over the Caribbean Sea since the center
should continue to move slowly westward over land toward the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
over portions of Central America during the next few days.
* Formation change through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Sanibel]

Looks like EPAC grabbed the wave axis center.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like EPAC grabbed the wave axis center.

yep

that was a scary looking gfs for your part of the world but its the gfs so you were always safe

[Siker]

There are many people that owe King Euro an apology

I don't think anyone called out the Euro as being out to lunch; it was a question of whether the GFS should be given consideration.

[jlauderdal]

There are many people that owe King Euro an apology

only a few MU fans on this board..most have learned, others coming on board

[caneman]

I don't think anyone doubts the Euro's accuracy vs. the GFS this year and I think it is well agreed the model needs an overhaul. That being said it is a bit annoying to hear the King Euro talk. Really, what is the purpose? Akin to spiking the football or an end zone dance. Who really cares? It's petty and I believe needless. Anywho, lets move on.

[blp]

There are many people that owe King Euro an apology

only a few MU fans on this board..most have learned, others coming on board

Hindsight is always 20/20. I think the big reason many including myself were buying into the solution was because several other models were on board and the timeframe was under 7 days which has historically been a reliable timeframe of the model. It also had the right area and time of year. I think the GFS phantom storms this year did not have as much model support and thus could be easily discarded. The only model that truly stayed with the Euro was the UKmet and that should have been a telling sign that the Euro was onto something. We need to be careful though not to just take everything the Euro says as gospel as it has had its struggles as well but there is not doubt that it is the most reliable model. I would put the Euro one and the UKmet two. The GFS has fallen off even the 2nd tier in my opinion. Hopefully they remedy this situation because I really like the availabilty and frequency of the GFS data.

[jlauderdal]

I don't think anyone doubts the Euro's accuracy vs. the GFS this year and I think it is well agreed the model needs an overhaul. That being said it is a bit annoying to hear the King Euro talk. Really, what is the purpose? Akin to spiking the football or an end zone dance. Who really cares? It's petty and I believe needless. Anywho, lets move on.

thats what we do on this board especially when its slow..happy hurricane hunting

[StarmanHDB]

I don't think anyone doubts the Euro's accuracy vs. the GFS this year and I think it is well agreed the model needs an overhaul. That being said it is a bit annoying to hear the King Euro talk. Really, what is the purpose? Akin to spiking the football or an end zone dance. Who really cares? It's petty and I believe needless. Anywho, lets move on.

Come on man! people I disagree with need someone or something to blame for this season's lack of activity! Why not blame those highly scientific forecast models about which they know so little?

PS. Sorry, but the devil in me made me post this!

[caneman]

There are many people that owe King Euro an apology

only a few MU fans on this board..most have learned, others coming on board

Hindsight is always 20/20. I think the big reason many including myself were buying into the solution was because several other models were on board and the timeframe was under 7 days which has historically been a reliable timeframe of the model. It also had the right area and time of year. I think the GFS phantom storms this year did not have as much model support and thus could be easily discarded. The only model that truly stayed with the Euro was the UKmet and that should have been a telling sign that the Euro was onto something. We need to be careful though not to just take everything the Euro says as gospel as it has had its struggles as well but there is not doubt that it is the most reliable model. I would put the Euro one and the UKmet two. The GFS has fallen off even the 2nd tier in my opinion. Hopefully they remedy this situation because I really like the availabilty and frequency of the GFS data.

Very well stated.

[alienstorm]

If you look closely at the area along the Nicaragua Southeast coast you can see some rotation and it is acknowledge by NW winds along a reporting station near by. Doesn't mean that we have a LLC but interesting that this area may have to be watch closer than thought.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[gatorcane]

Yeah alienstorm, there is some turning where you mentioned. It looks like a monsoon gyre stretched WSE to ENE across Nicaragua. In these types of situations, models can have some problems and it is not uncommon to have both ends of the gyre spin off systems.

The key will be can a low form over water around the NE part of this gyre over the SW Caribbean? All the deep convection we are seeing may spin up a new low over the SW Caribbean. Looking at the long-wave pattern from the ECMWF, it looks like by late this weekend / early next week the flow across the Western Caribbean becomes SE to NW at the 500MB level which could allow a developing system in the SW Caribbean to gradually move NW towards the NW Caribbean and possibly Gulf after that.

[blp]

Yeah alienstorm, there is some turning where you mentioned. It looks like a monsoon gyre stretched WSE to ENE across Nicaragua. In these types of situations, models can have some problems and it is not uncommon to have both ends of the gyre spin off systems.

The key will be can a low form over water around the NE part of this gyre over the SW Caribbean? All the deep convection we are seeing may spin up a new low over the SW Caribbean. Looking at the long-wave pattern from the ECMWF, it looks like by late this weekend / early next week the flow across the Western Caribbean becomes SE to NW at the 500MB level which could allow a developing system in the SW Caribbean to gradually move NW towards the NW Caribbean and possibly Gulf after that.

Gator the 12z Euro is now hinting at something in 10 days in the NW Carribean. If you run this loop it looks like a new area comes off S. America but instead of going into the EPAC gets caught and pulled up by the trough and then hangs in the NW Carribean.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014100812/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl.html

[gatorcane]

Blp, yeah that is interesting. Convection really on the increase down in the SW Caribbean this afternoon. Even if this area of thunderstorms doesn't develop, you just get the feeling something will eventually get going down in the SW Carib or W Carib in the next couple of weeks due to the strong MJO pulse and because climatologically speaking this is the area to watch in October.

[gatorcane]

The FIM model still develops this area. No other model is though besides the NAM (which is not a good model). Usually the FIM and GFS are similar (since the FIM is based off the GFS) but the FIM seems to be diverging quite a bit from the GFS the past several runs which is not what I am used to seeing. If it gets this right, would be rather interesting!

[blp]

The FIM model still develops this area. No other model is though besides the NAM (which is not a good model). Usually the FIM and GFS are similar (since the FIM is based off the GFS) but the FIM seems to be diverging quite a bit from the GFS the past several runs which is not what I am used to seeing. If it gets this right, would be rather interesting!

You forgot the crazy uncle. I also think something is eventually going to get going down there.