Possible Development in the BOC (Is Invest 93L)

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS still through the FL straits and faster while the 00Z ECMWF is slower and turns it north into the Eastern Gulf. GEM and NAVGEM had hurricanes in their long-range 00Z runs into the SE Gulf / NW Carib area and then into Southern Florida and are slower than the ECMWF. Let's see what their 12Z runs show.

No invest yet on the NRL site but checking periodically as we should get one within the next 24 hours I would think or as soon as the low pressure area forms in the BOC.

[TheStormExpert]

12Z GFS still through the FL straits and faster while the 00Z ECMWF is slower and turns it north into the Eastern Gulf. GEM and NAVGEM had hurricanes in their long-range 00Z runs into the SE Gulf / NW Carib area and then into Southern Florida and are slower than the ECMWF. Let's see what their 12Z runs show.

No invest yet on the NRL site but checking periodically as we should get one within the next 24 hours I would think or as soon as the low pressure area forms in the BOC.

As soon as the NHC ups the 2-day chances and adds an "X" on their TWO then an Invest should seem real imminent.

[cycloneye]

This should be 93L soon as 92L was taken by low pressure in Eastern Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

the area around 97W, 21N near the Mexican coast has a nice spin. Some of the models are developing a low from that move it eastward into the BOC where genesis occurs. So could get an invest 93l designation initialized around there soon:

[cycloneye]

Gatorcane,you nailed the area.

A low pressure system has developed over the extreme southwestern
Bay of Campeche just to the southeast of Vera Cruz, Mexico. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
several days while it moves east-northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane,you nailed the area.

Well I thought it might have been a little more up the Mexican coast line than that. An invest designation should be on the way soon

[gatorcane]

GOM IR loop:

[LarryWx]

bermuda of course(if you have been there you understand what I mean, if you havent then the deal is they dont take shortcuts, they handle their business with class and professionalism and they dont panic) they handled two hits in a week as you would expect, other counties including the great USA can learn alot about how its done correctly..it really comes down to the residents more than the government...anyway, lets see what happens with this sytem and who knows maybe we will have a comparison to make...our track record dealing with hurricanes isnt real good considering the amount of resources we pound at the issue

True. However, they are in a much safer environment because 1) Much of Bermuda is some 20-30+ feet ASL just inland from the beaches and it also has a protective reef surrounding it. So, outside of the immediate shore and some low lying areas like the causeway/airport area (there have been vehicles caught in surge there), surge isn't nearly as dangerous as it is for most of the US east and Gulf coasts. 2) All buildings must be built to VERY high standards and are literally rock solid, including roofs. 3) Related to #2, there is virtually no poverty.
I've been there by the way.

[SFLcane]

12z GEM gets this going rather quickly...

[boca]

Is the spin around 19N and 96W? Its hard to tell.

[SFLcane]

http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/2km/?type=Yucatan-vis-6

[blp]

The 12z UKmet has the low at 144hrs staying in the NW Carribean and left behind. I think the GFS is too quick ejecting it out. Let see what the King has to say.

[SFLcane]

Through 96hrs 12z EURO has low in NW Caribbean sea.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 144 hours heading NE in the SE GOM, a little stronger, maybe subtropical?

[blp]

It is a hair slower with the NE movement than 00z. Looks like ir will get left behind.

[SFLcane]

Heavy rainfall for SFL...

[gatorcane]

1005MB on the 12Z ECMWF at 144 hours:

[psyclone]

looks like a good gradient on the north side...could be a real beach eater for the space/first coast even if it turns out pretty benign for those of us on land.

[gatorcane]

168 hour 12Z ECMWF: