Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

[NDG]

12z Euro has the track of this tropical wave a little further south & a little slower, across the northern Leeward Islands into P.R.

[NDG]

12z Euro has the ridge to the north of the tropical wave by this weekend stronger on this run, thus a little more southerly track. Notice the higher than average heights across eastern Canada.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm... Maybe the Canadian is onto something.

[RL3AO]

12z Euro tracks this wave over Puerto Rico and into South Florida. Certainly one to watch, especially if it tracks north of PR.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA
TWDAT


Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 850MB vort GIF:

[TheStormExpert]

Here is the latest 12z JMA run.



By the way, what does the latest 12z UKMET show?

[NDG]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.

[Gustywind]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?

[NDG]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.

Yes, but, as we know that if wind shear is not going to be a big problem then the dry air around it may not get to it. The biggest problem for it that I see is going to be its fast track before the Leeward Islands and possible land interaction with P.R. & Hispaniola after that.

[NDG]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?

Windshear will be minimal.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

So it seems at the moment that dry stable air and land interaction are the only two inhibitors.

Yes, but, as we know that if wind shear is not going to be a big problem then the dry air around it may not get to it. The biggest problem for it that I see is going to be its fast track before the Leeward Islands and possible land interaction with P.R. & Hispaniola after that.

I'm guessing fast trade winds are still a problem?

[Gustywind]

12z Euro shows a very good UL wind pattern on top of the TW as it approaches the Leeward Islands.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/160727185641.gif

Ok thanks and what does it mean in your opinion?

Windshear will be minimal.

Ok thanks to you. I was guessing that too

[Hurricaneman]

will need to watch this one due to some model support although weak and has a good pattern for some development and may need to be watched in Florida and the Southeastern US

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[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271741 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...correction for satellite time
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic west of the Cape
Verde Islands extends along 28W/29W from 10N-19N moving west 10
to 15 kt over the past 24 hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb
low/trough as depicted in the global models and is embedded
within a high amplitude surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate
convection are from 8N-13N between 24W-34W.

[Siker]

Ends up in the Gulf eventually on the 00z GFS, no development.

Meanwhile, the Canadian:

[Hammy]

Euro still showing nothing, which in all likelihood will continue to be the case for the next few weeks. GFS on the other hand has gone completely nuts with a system with hurricane winds at 850MB developing over Africa in the long range.

[Darvince]

Here's that mad solution:


It develops the wave into a tropical storm while still over Africa, what the heck?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/758591128686002176