Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[TheStormExpert]

Strong Cat.4 skimming the NE Caribbean Islands @ 234hrs. on the 12z GFS.

[RL3AO]

If you we're going to design a weather pattern to get a 50+ ACE storm to go from Africa to the US, the 12Z GFS might very well be that system.

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

240hrs. before resolution drops.

[Siker]

Check out that ridge:

[WeatherEmperor]

Check out that ridge:

Ooooh wow. Well the ridge has been there all season long so this does not shock me


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[RL3AO]

This run might go to Texas unless it ends first.

Whats the record for single storm ACE?

[TheStormExpert]

Beyond 10 days but watch out South FL on the 12z GFS.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this will be a threat to the lesser Antilles and possibly the east coast from Florida to Atlantic Canada

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[LarryWx]

UKMET has it trucking virtually due west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.0N 21.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 18.0N 21.4W 1008 25
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 17.8N 25.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 18.1N 29.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 18.4N 33.5W 1007 37
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 18.7N 37.7W 1008 40
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 18.8N 42.0W 1006 42

The UK has it crossing at 17.8N (just N of the CV's) as a TC. It has been since 1893 that a TC that went by the CV's that far N that later became a H in the MDR made it past 75W. I'm guessing that this is going to end up crossing the CV's instead of to the N of it but we'll see. As Luis noted, the 12Z GFS came across there further S than the 6Z GFS.
About 1/5 of CV storms make it as far W as the Conus. This is a threat to be in that 1/5 due to its projected due W move for such a long distance. Before that Luis and others in the Caribbean will likely need to be watching this closely.

[cycloneye]

Cat 4.

[WeatherEmperor]

Hits south florida as a major hurricane at 324hrs




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[TheStormExpert]

14 days out and that's the best time to be under the gun by a hurricane on the models. BTW, landfall is in NE Broward County for anyone who is curious.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian has hurricane hitting Hispanola at 240hrs as a hurricane. Model consensus getting stronger. Lets see Euro later today




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[JaxGator]

It's pretty large and strong hurricane on most of the run. Bears watching for sure.

[Hurricaneman]

Has a similar path to the Palm Beach hurricane of I can't remember the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

Is the perfect longtracker.

[RL3AO]

If there is anything to take away from the large scale, which there is at least some skill in predicting out 7 to 10 days, there looks to be a very favorable pattern for a long-lived TC.

[Siker]

Has a similar path to the Palm Beach hurricane of I can't remember the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I thought of the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane:

[junepath]

Check out that ridge:

I'm extremely new to watching this stuff, but is that ridge the reason it's moving west (well, west-ish) instead of running straight up the coast?