Tropical Wave in East Atlantic - (Is INVEST 94L)

[StormHunter72]

Fishy

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF doesn't even develop this now through day 5 that the run is out to so far, perhaps it will beyond 5 days. NHC may need to lower their % chance of development through 5 days.

[Gustywind]

Fishy

Why you say that? it"s not even a fish, way to early IMO. We have to wait and see.

[Gustywind]

The ECMWF doesn't even develop this now through day 5 that the run is out to so far, perhaps it will beyond 5 days. NHC may need to lower their % chance of development through 5 days.

Again no surprise Gatorcane, models overestimated it genesis for sure.

[Medtronic15]

Fishy

Why you say that? it"s not even a fish, way to early IMO. We have to wait and see.

Fishy?

[gatorcane]

Fishy

Too early to know for sure. Looks like significant differences looking at day 7 in the 500MB pattern over the Western Atlantic between the latest ECMWF and GFS models. System is passing a little to the NE of the Lesser Antilles at this time:

ECMWF:


GFS:

[Gustywind]

Fishy

Why you say that? it"s not even a fish, way to early IMO. We have to wait and see.

Fishy?

Absolutely RIGHT my friend if you stay with the models. But you know better than me that models often struggled with the latest features. I don't by too much with them for the moment. Looks like pure fantasy or entertainement Just hope that this twave become something like an Invest because of for now it looks like a modest twave progressing westward... and if this one stay shallow or disorganized chances are increasing to drift on a more westerly direction towards the Lesser Antilles. Wait and see mode.

[Gustywind]

Fishy

Too early to know for sure. Looks like significant differences looking at day 7 in the 500MB pattern over the Western Atlantic between the latest ECMWF and GFS models. System is passing a little to the NE of the Lesser Antilles at this time:

ECMWF:


GFS:

Good point, excellent post Gatorcane, i could not be more agree with you .

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it hits the Hebert box at that HR.

[wxmann_91]

The NAVGEM has about as much chance of verifying as if you blindfolded me and asked me to draw out a forecast for this system.

[StormTracker]

Well 7 days from now is next Wednesday, and the NHC's probability is at 70% thru Monday. Let's just hope it goes north of the islands by then if it is strengthening, then hope for a recurve after that! With that scenario, no one gets hurt and hopefully we get a nice storm to track...ST

[Nimbus]

A little more convection at sunset today, that might help it pull away from the ITCZ for an early recurve. Of course we don't even have an invest yet, maybe they are waiting to see what happens a little closer to home?

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%-60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is accompanied
by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development
of this system is not expected during the next couple of days.
However, conditions are forecast to become a little more favorable
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by
early next week while this system moves westward and then
west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[abajan]

Interesting change in projected track:

[GeneratorPower]

This wave is really moving away from The Islands Formerly Known as Cape Verde™. Maybe we should use Pouch numbers.

[floridasun78]

i supprise this not invest

[Kalrany]

I like the idea of using pouch numbers if there is not an invest or other identifying entity. At least it is a good way to quickly reference without confusion. (My 2 pennies, if it's worth even that much.)

[Hurricaneman]

The thing I've noticed on the 0zGFS is that it forms 2 lows on this wave, one to at 11N northeast of the one at 9N at 48hrs but here is my question, what happens if the southwestern vortmax becomes the dominant one instead of the one farther NE. I would think it would go into the Caribbean if that happens

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
757 PM EDT WED SEP 7 2016



A tropical wave is moving over the Cabo Verde Islands with axis
extending from 17N24W to 05N25W, moving west near 10 to 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is embedded within a broad surge
of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection prevails across the southern portion
of the wave where it interacts with the Monsoon Trough south of
11N between 20W-29W.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
503 AM EDT THU SEP 8 2016


A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 17N
with axis near 31W, moving W at 10-15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of mainly favorable deep layer wind
shear and abundant moisture from the surface to 850 mb as shown by
CIRA LPW imagery. That environment along with divergent flow aloft
support scattered showers and tstms from 05N to 15N between 25W
and 36W. Significant development of this system is not expected
during the next couple of days. However, conditions could become a
little more favorable for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while this system moves
westward and then west-northwestward into the central Atlantic.