2017 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

Category 5 before the season officially starts?

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS parallel is ECMWF but weaker. BTW, ECMWF day 10 is not a Cat 5 on Weather Bell.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I thought a Cat.5 before or at the start of the East Pacific season seemed too extreme. Either way the East Pacific is just starting again where we left off over the past 3-4 years.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS parallel like 0z. 12z GFS now has a hurricane hitting El Salvador day 11.

[Kingarabian]

0z GFS parallel is ECMWF but weaker. BTW, ECMWF day 10 is not a Cat 5 on Weather Bell.

I saw 930MB.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF shows basically the same track and down to 931 mbar after showing development around day 6 and re-curvature towards land day 10ish. The ECMWF seems latched on to this for quite some time now, so stay tuned. In addition, the 0z EPS seems to send the storm towards Colima and Guerrero in the long range, sans a few memebers that don't develop this or don't forsee the system feeling a weakness.

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWf further east, but 0z GFS further west. Big difference now between the two is how fast this gets going.

[NDG]

Both models now fairly persistent in development over the EPAC, fairly close to C.A.
A track close into to MX or C.A. would not surprise me due to weak ridging to the north of it and a deep trough pattern across the eastern US, cutoff UL low across the SW US will play a role in it even more.

[TheStormExpert]

Any chance of future Adrian crossing over into the BoC or W. Caribbean and redeveloping?

[NDG]

Any chance of future Adrian crossing over into the BoC or W. Caribbean and redeveloping?

That's a possibility, at least the moisture crossing over in the western Caribbean and or BOC if the SW US mid level low picks it up, but still too far out to say for sure.

[TheStormExpert]

Any chance of future Adrian crossing over into the BoC or W. Caribbean and redeveloping?

That's a possibility, at least the moisture crossing over in the western Caribbean and or BOC if the SW US mid level low picks it up, but still too far out to say for sure.

Yeah the extremely long-range GFS keeps hinting at lowering pressure in the NW Caribbean but as many know that is far out.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS looks quite similar to the ECMWF as far as Adrian getting pulled north than NE across Central America. GFS has the remnants emerging into the NW Caribbean at 240 hours but looks to encounter shear:

[tolakram]

Euro has something in 72 hours, perhaps this is the area starting to show signs? 90W, 10N

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=10&lon=-95&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&mapcolor=gray

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF further west and has this getting blocked by a ridge prior to landfall. This could get interesting, but my guess is this is a one run thing.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF further west and has this getting blocked by a ridge prior to landfall. This could get interesting, but my guess is this is a one run thing.

Looks like steering currents are little to none at the end of that run. Could encounter upwelling problems.

[cycloneye]

NHC is already mentioning it in the discussion section.

Looking ahead, global model guidance continues to indicate the
chance of low pressure developing along the east to west trough
in the tropical eastern Pacific, between Central America and 95W
late in the weekend into early next week. Little movement of
this system is suggested initially, which could lead to heavy
rain accumulations across portions of the region. Additionally,
the starting date of the eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season
is quickly approaching, and any low pressure system to develop
in this area will need to be closely monitored

[Ntxw]

Posted in the ENSO thread but it seems pretty relevant here in the EPAC

NCDC PDO rose signficantly in April to 0.52. Extrapolating it's trends in comparison to JISAO shows April could be anywhere from 0.90 to even 1+. The last NCDC .50 or greater was back in December when JISAO +1.17

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

[cycloneye]

00z GFS develops to Hurricane and tracks to Guatemala/El Salvador and 00z ECMWF has a Cat 3 Hurricane that moves erraticly due to weak steering.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

UKMET is also spinning up a system along the the MT. (tight isobars)

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has landfall at El Salvador/Honduras on May 12. It moves slowly since formation on May 8 as steering is weak.