Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Steve]

12Z CMC still hits around Bay/Franklin Counties, Florida.

[ronjon]

Models struggling now. Appears from latest GFS and Para-GFS that they want to break off a separate vorticity that heads north from the Yucatan straits. The models are bringing a wave of moisture from this feature into Florida. Must be something not ideal for development now (shear?).

[Stormcenter]

Either the Canadian is on to something or ON something in reference to it continuing to show a NE track and FL. landfall
of this "potential" Gulf development.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas by the weekend.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter
while it moves slowly northwestward toward the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Nimbus]

Seeing plenty of the diurnal shower activity near -80W but I'm not sure there will be any permanent surface pressure anomalies until later in the week?

Is there a buoy in the area to watch?

[wxman57]

Either the Canadian is on to something or ON something in reference to it continuing to show a NE track and FL. landfall
of this "potential" Gulf development.

I think the Canadian is ON something, along with NAVGEM. Most likely scenario is for the low to track westward into NE MX or possibly S. TX. I think it will have 40+ mph winds north of the center, like Frances of 1998.

[ronyan]

Either the Canadian is on to something or ON something in reference to it continuing to show a NE track and FL. landfall
of this "potential" Gulf development.

I think the Canadian is ON something, along with NAVGEM. Most likely scenario is for the low to track westward into NE MX or possibly S. TX. I think it will have 40+ mph winds north of the center, like Frances of 1998.

I remember getting off from school for a couple days during Frances due to the school being flooded. It was a big rainmaker here on the coast. I'm thinking this will be south of that track but we'll see.

[wxman57]

I remember getting off from school for a couple days during Frances due to the school being flooded. It was a big rainmaker here on the coast. I'm thinking this will be south of that track but we'll see.

Yeah, I'm thinking south of Frances' track. Could produce TS winds over a large part of the northern Gulf deepwater lease areas Tue-Thu.

[ronyan]

12z ECMWF has it moving NW at hour 144. Northern BOC.

@168 it turns more westward sharply.

[Alyono]

EC has quite a bit of shear in the western Gulf

[Alyono]

dissipates before it moves into Mexico

[gatorcane]

the GFS upper-level environment conditions in the Central/Western Gulf from the model runs a week ago were very suspect. There is almost always shear around in the Gulf this time of year yet the model was showing near ideal conditions and as expected the ECMWF significantly backs off from a near hurricane landfalling in Texas in the long-range.

[Stormcenter]

Shear, a word used a lot last season and I believe it will be used a lot again this season. I guess that's good.

[Alyono]

the GFS upper-level environment conditions in the Central/Western Gulf from the model runs a week ago were very suspect. There is almost always shear around in the Gulf this time of year yet the model was showing near ideal conditions and as expected the ECMWF significantly backs off from a near hurricane landfalling in Texas in the long-range.

EC did not have a near hurricane in the 0Z run. Instead, it had something like a cross between Arlene 1993 and Frances 1998

[Stormcenter]

That's still 7 days away.....I need to see something before I buy into any scenario. IMO

12z ECMWF has it moving NW at hour 144. Northern BOC.

@168 it turns more westward sharply.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF basically the same as the 00z with the possible BoC system, just a tad weaker and further south. It's looking pretty locked in now that some sort of genesis is going to take place towards the beginning of next week.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan tweets about this.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068580597043200




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068635244617729




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068775946756099




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068846973100033




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068880435240960




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/875068938803191809

[ronyan]

12z ECMWF basically the same as the 00z with the possible BoC system, just a tad weaker and further south. It's looking pretty locked in now that some sort of genesis is going to take place towards the beginning of next week.

It looks more like the 12z from yesterday to me, the 0z was into the middle TX coast.

[wxman57]

Looks like the strong tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean right now may be the source of model development. It will be approaching the Yucatan on Sunday.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro still brings a significant moisture surge into the TX/LA coasts by day 8-10 so something to monitor.