Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/
TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19182
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
Here is the TSR skill index based on hindcasting their technique. TSR produced this chart.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
The abstract of this May 30 forecast:
The TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) pre-season forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2018
anticipates levels 50% or more below the long-term norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to
30th November 2018 and employs data through to late May 2018. The TSR forecast has lowered since
early April 2018 due to considerable cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic
and Caribbean Sea associated with a strengthened Azores high pressure system during April and May.
These cooler waters are expected to persist through the summer and to be accompanied by enhanced trade
winds and enhanced sea level pressures in the regions where hurricanes form. These environmental
factors are all inhibiting to hurricane activity. Despite the expectation for a quiet hurricane season sources
of uncertainty remain primarily concerning how cool the tropical North Atlantic will be in AugustSeptember.
At present there is a 69% likelihood that hurricane activity in 2018 will be in the lowest onethird
of years since 1950.
anticipates levels 50% or more below the long-term norm. The forecast spans the period from 1st June to
30th November 2018 and employs data through to late May 2018. The TSR forecast has lowered since
early April 2018 due to considerable cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic
and Caribbean Sea associated with a strengthened Azores high pressure system during April and May.
These cooler waters are expected to persist through the summer and to be accompanied by enhanced trade
winds and enhanced sea level pressures in the regions where hurricanes form. These environmental
factors are all inhibiting to hurricane activity. Despite the expectation for a quiet hurricane season sources
of uncertainty remain primarily concerning how cool the tropical North Atlantic will be in AugustSeptember.
At present there is a 69% likelihood that hurricane activity in 2018 will be in the lowest onethird
of years since 1950.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/
cycloneye wrote:TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread
Looking back at their late May/early June forecasts back to 2000, this is one of the quietest forecasts they've had and is pretty close to the forecasts for 2000, 2002, and 2015. It is quieter than their 2009 forecast.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
So we have two camps in terms of numbers for this season.
There’s those forecasting an average to slightly above average season like currently CSU, and North Carolina State which actually goes hyperactive with their predictions (that’s too overdone IMO).
Then there’s those forecasting a near normal or below average season like TSR, and likely CSU according to little hints of what he may be doing to his numbers in the May release tomorrow morning.
There’s those forecasting an average to slightly above average season like currently CSU, and North Carolina State which actually goes hyperactive with their predictions (that’s too overdone IMO).
Then there’s those forecasting a near normal or below average season like TSR, and likely CSU according to little hints of what he may be doing to his numbers in the May release tomorrow morning.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
Woh-hoo,this thread is up there in google list!!!
https://www.google.com.pr/search?rlz=1C ... D2XBi4qgs8
https://www.google.com.pr/search?rlz=1C ... D2XBi4qgs8
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
If CSU changes their forecast to below average tomorrow as expected, that would make NOAA a major outlier.
0 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- CFLHurricane
- Category 1
- Posts: 313
- Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
- Location: Floriduh
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.
0 likes
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.
What do you mean?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- CFLHurricane
- Category 1
- Posts: 313
- Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
- Location: Floriduh
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
TheStormExpert wrote:CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.
What do you mean?
One thing I noticed from the slower seasons (2013-2015) was the underwhelming wet season in Central Florida. The difference was stark in comparison to 2016 and 2017 with the wet season getting off to a consistently vigorous start.
I chalk it up to an atmosphere being favorable for thunderstorms in general also being favorable for cyclones seeing as thunderstorms are the starting point for any cyclone.
This is also likely related to an active tornado season being associated with an active tropical cyclone season. This year just has the same feel as other seasons with above normal activity.
(I can feel the charts incoming to prove me wrong )
0 likes
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
CFLHurricane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:CFLHurricane wrote:TSR’s reasoning is certainly interesting, but i think they’re going to eat their hat on this one if Florida’s wet start to the rainy season is any indication.
What do you mean?
One thing I noticed from the slower seasons (2013-2015) was the underwhelming wet season in Central Florida. The difference was stark in comparison to 2016 and 2017 with the wet season getting off to a consistently vigorous start.
I chalk it up to an atmosphere being favorable for thunderstorms in general also being favorable for cyclones seeing as thunderstorms are the starting point for any cyclone.
This is also likely related to an active tornado season being associated with an active tropical cyclone season. This year just has the same feel as other seasons with above normal activity.
(I can feel the charts incoming to prove me wrong )
2018 Tornado season has been below average.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
@RyanMauee
In a year of expected below average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, and cooler water in the Main Development Region, perhaps the named storms number can be padded with more of these Subtropical Storms
In a year of expected below average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, and cooler water in the Main Development Region, perhaps the named storms number can be padded with more of these Subtropical Storms
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Predicts a quiet season: 9/4/1
cycloneye wrote:@RyanMauee
In a year of expected below average tropical storm activity in the Atlantic, and cooler water in the Main Development Region, perhaps the named storms number can be padded with more of these Subtropical Storms
I don't know if Ryan is indirectly relating his comment to Alberto, but Alberto was a legitimate storm with ~990 mb minimum SLP. They've been counting and/or naming STSs since the early 1970s. So, that is nothing new. Besides, they easily could have called Alberto tropical if they wanted but held off. One way or another a 990 mb storm, the strongest storm May Gulf storm since 1863 that wasn't extratropical, deserved to be named.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR May 30 forecast is up: Forecasts a quiet season: 9/4/
cycloneye wrote:TSR lowers numbers from the April ones to 9/4/1.Read it at first post of thread
This TSR forecast for the Lesser Antilles landfalls has only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:
- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So, 1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:
https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax-gre ... _vDxOZ.png
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 N Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU update is just out! Surprised that he didn’t lower the numbers even more than what he did.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1002187491363901440
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1002187491363901440
2 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
4 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1
CSU downgrade the numbers from the May ones (14/6/2) to 10/4/1 (With Alberto 11) Read forecast here.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22505
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1
Klotzbach is now saying 11/4/1 (includes Alberto), to only 10 more named storms this season.
1 likes
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1343
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: Expert Forecasts for 2018 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 2 forecast=10/4/1
An ACE of 60 is probably the most telling number. Much quieter than recent times!
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, Emmett_Brown, Hurricaneman, South Texas Storms, Tireman4, Wampadawg and 111 guests