2018 TCRs
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2018 TCRs
Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2018 TCRs
galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.
All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2018 TCRs
1900hurricane wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.
All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.
So does that mean that there won't be a report from the CPHC then since the data is in the NHC report? That's what I'm confused about.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- 1900hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 6044
- Age: 33
- Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
- Location: Houston, TX
- Contact:
Re: 2018 TCRs
galaxy401 wrote:1900hurricane wrote:galaxy401 wrote:Yeah the NHC details a bit on Miriam's time in the CPAC. They usually don't do that as they tend to end their summaries once it crosses into the CPAC. Although the CPAC data is still preliminary I believe.
All the data in that report is final, including the CPAC portion.
So does that mean that there won't be a report from the CPHC then since the data is in the NHC report? That's what I'm confused about.
Correct. The NHC and CPHC worked on the report and finished it together. Note that authors from both agencies are listed on the first page of the report.
0 likes
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2018 TCRs
Ernesto, Lane (EPAC portion) and Willa are now up. Lane's CPAC portion will probably take quite a while.
Remaining reports:
Atlantic - Debby, Florence, Leslie, Michael
EPAC - Tara, Vicente
Remaining reports:
Atlantic - Debby, Florence, Leslie, Michael
EPAC - Tara, Vicente
1 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2018 TCRs
Some more reports came out today: Debby in the Atlantic and Tara in the Pacific.
EPAC is nearly complete, just leaves Vicente. While for the Atlantic, the three most interesting hurricanes of the season are left.
EPAC is nearly complete, just leaves Vicente. While for the Atlantic, the three most interesting hurricanes of the season are left.
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2018 TCRs
galaxy401 wrote:Some more reports came out today: Debby in the Atlantic and Tara in the Pacific.
EPAC is nearly complete, just leaves Vicente. While for the Atlantic, the three most interesting hurricanes of the season are left.
We'd be at late February right now if not for the government shutdown.
0 likes
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
-
- Category 4
- Posts: 907
- Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 3:21 am
- Location: Ozark, AL
Re: 2018 TCRs
StruThiO wrote:Michael is out.
Dont see the report but found this!
https://twitter.com/WJHG_TV/status/1119239244524990469
3 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 TCRs
Well there we have it! The first Category 5 hurricane to make U.S. landfall since Andrew in 1992, and the third season in a row to feature at least one Cat. 5 hurricane.
5 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 TCRs
bamajammer4eva wrote:StruThiO wrote:Michael is out.
Dont see the report but found this!
https://twitter.com/WJHG_TV/status/1119239244524990469
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 33398
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5)
No real surprise, but historic nonetheless.
One note is that the SFMR of 138 was actually 152, but was largely disregarded. If that is used at face value, an intensity of 150 kt would be justified, but given the shoaling and uncertainty, that was correctly ignored. Still, pretty much all other data supports cat 5.
I'd also have lowered the landfall pressure a bit more, probably to 916 or 917. That said, the sensor that had 922 with hurricane conditions was probably off a bit (that would support around 914) given the other sites.
One note is that the SFMR of 138 was actually 152, but was largely disregarded. If that is used at face value, an intensity of 150 kt would be justified, but given the shoaling and uncertainty, that was correctly ignored. Still, pretty much all other data supports cat 5.
I'd also have lowered the landfall pressure a bit more, probably to 916 or 917. That said, the sensor that had 922 with hurricane conditions was probably off a bit (that would support around 914) given the other sites.
2 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139593
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
Wow, three cat 5 years in a row (4 in total) after a 9 year drought.
2 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2300
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
Well there you have it. It was indeed a cat 5 after some debate. That also makes it the 3rd consecutive M name to reach category 5 status.
That just leaves Florence which is probably taking longer due to its damage being more widespread compared to Michael.
That just leaves Florence which is probably taking longer due to its damage being more widespread compared to Michael.
1 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
- Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 2902
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
26 years between Andrew and Michael, 23 years between Andrew and Camille, and 34 years between Camille and the Labor Day Hurricane.
1 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
Re: 2018 TCRs: Hurricane Michael report is up: (Category 5) Still Florence is left - All 25 EPAC reports are up
That seems like disagreeing just to disagree. The report was pretty thorough in explaining the different analyses they did, and made a very strong case to support their upgrade to 140kts.
6 likes
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: bohai, Brent, duilaslol, Emmett_Brown, floridasun, HurakaYoshi, hurricanes1234, IcyTundra, NotSparta, StormPyrate and 107 guests